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Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth's tropical forests.

Publication ,  Journal Article
Sullivan, MJP; Lewis, SL; Affum-Baffoe, K; Castilho, C; Costa, F; Sanchez, AC; Ewango, CEN; Hubau, W; Marimon, B; Monteagudo-Mendoza, A; Qie, L ...
Published in: Science (New York, N.Y.)
May 2020

The sensitivity of tropical forest carbon to climate is a key uncertainty in predicting global climate change. Although short-term drying and warming are known to affect forests, it is unknown if such effects translate into long-term responses. Here, we analyze 590 permanent plots measured across the tropics to derive the equilibrium climate controls on forest carbon. Maximum temperature is the most important predictor of aboveground biomass (-9.1 megagrams of carbon per hectare per degree Celsius), primarily by reducing woody productivity, and has a greater impact per °C in the hottest forests (>32.2°C). Our results nevertheless reveal greater thermal resilience than observations of short-term variation imply. To realize the long-term climate adaptation potential of tropical forests requires both protecting them and stabilizing Earth's climate.

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Published In

Science (New York, N.Y.)

DOI

EISSN

1095-9203

ISSN

0036-8075

Publication Date

May 2020

Volume

368

Issue

6493

Start / End Page

869 / 874

Related Subject Headings

  • Wood
  • Tropical Climate
  • Trees
  • Hot Temperature
  • General Science & Technology
  • Forests
  • Earth, Planet
  • Climate Change
  • Carbon Cycle
  • Carbon
 

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Sullivan, M. J. P., Lewis, S. L., Affum-Baffoe, K., Castilho, C., Costa, F., Sanchez, A. C., … Phillips, O. L. (2020). Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth's tropical forests. Science (New York, N.Y.), 368(6493), 869–874. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaw7578
Sullivan, Martin J. P., Simon L. Lewis, Kofi Affum-Baffoe, Carolina Castilho, Flávia Costa, Aida Cuni Sanchez, Corneille E. N. Ewango, et al. “Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth's tropical forests.Science (New York, N.Y.) 368, no. 6493 (May 2020): 869–74. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaw7578.
Sullivan MJP, Lewis SL, Affum-Baffoe K, Castilho C, Costa F, Sanchez AC, et al. Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth's tropical forests. Science (New York, NY). 2020 May;368(6493):869–74.
Sullivan, Martin J. P., et al. “Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth's tropical forests.Science (New York, N.Y.), vol. 368, no. 6493, May 2020, pp. 869–74. Epmc, doi:10.1126/science.aaw7578.
Sullivan MJP, Lewis SL, Affum-Baffoe K, Castilho C, Costa F, Sanchez AC, Ewango CEN, Hubau W, Marimon B, Monteagudo-Mendoza A, Qie L, Sonké B, Martinez RV, Baker TR, Brienen RJW, Feldpausch TR, Galbraith D, Gloor M, Malhi Y, Aiba S-I, Alexiades MN, Almeida EC, de Oliveira EA, Dávila EÁ, Loayza PA, Andrade A, Vieira SA, Aragão LEOC, Araujo-Murakami A, Arets EJMM, Arroyo L, Ashton P, Aymard C G, Baccaro FB, Banin LF, Baraloto C, Camargo PB, Barlow J, Barroso J, Bastin J-F, Batterman SA, Beeckman H, Begne SK, Bennett AC, Berenguer E, Berry N, Blanc L, Boeckx P, Bogaert J, Bonal D, Bongers F, Bradford M, Brearley FQ, Brncic T, Brown F, Burban B, Camargo JL, Castro W, Céron C, Ribeiro SC, Moscoso VC, Chave J, Chezeaux E, Clark CJ, de Souza FC, Collins M, Comiskey JA, Valverde FC, Medina MC, da Costa L, Dančák M, Dargie GC, Davies S, Cardozo ND, de Haulleville T, de Medeiros MB, Del Aguila Pasquel J, Derroire G, Di Fiore A, Doucet J-L, Dourdain A, Droissart V, Duque LF, Ekoungoulou R, Elias F, Erwin T, Esquivel-Muelbert A, Fauset S, Ferreira J, Llampazo GF, Foli E, Ford A, Gilpin M, Hall JS, Hamer KC, Hamilton AC, Harris DJ, Hart TB, Hédl R, Herault B, Herrera R, Higuchi N, Hladik A, Coronado EH, Huamantupa-Chuquimaco I, Huasco WH, Jeffery KJ, Jimenez-Rojas E, Kalamandeen M, Djuikouo MNK, Kearsley E, Umetsu RK, Kho LK, Killeen T, Kitayama K, Klitgaard B, Koch A, Labrière N, Laurance W, Laurance S, Leal ME, Levesley A, Lima AJN, Lisingo J, Lopes AP, Lopez-Gonzalez G, Lovejoy T, Lovett JC, Lowe R, Magnusson WE, Malumbres-Olarte J, Manzatto ÂG, Marimon BH, Marshall AR, Marthews T, de Almeida Reis SM, Maycock C, Melgaço K, Mendoza C, Metali F, Mihindou V, Milliken W, Mitchard ETA, Morandi PS, Mossman HL, Nagy L, Nascimento H, Neill D, Nilus R, Vargas PN, Palacios W, Camacho NP, Peacock J, Pendry C, Peñuela Mora MC, Pickavance GC, Pipoly J, Pitman N, Playfair M, Poorter L, Poulsen JR, Poulsen AD, Preziosi R, Prieto A, Primack RB, Ramírez-Angulo H, Reitsma J, Réjou-Méchain M, Correa ZR, de Sousa TR, Bayona LR, Roopsind A, Rudas A, Rutishauser E, Abu Salim K, Salomão RP, Schietti J, Sheil D, Silva RC, Espejo JS, Valeria CS, Silveira M, Simo-Droissart M, Simon MF, Singh J, Soto Shareva YC, Stahl C, Stropp J, Sukri R, Sunderland T, Svátek M, Swaine MD, Swamy V, Taedoumg H, Talbot J, Taplin J, Taylor D, Ter Steege H, Terborgh J, Thomas R, Thomas SC, Torres-Lezama A, Umunay P, Gamarra LV, van der Heijden G, van der Hout P, van der Meer P, van Nieuwstadt M, Verbeeck H, Vernimmen R, Vicentini A, Vieira ICG, Torre EV, Vleminckx J, Vos V, Wang O, White LJT, Willcock S, Woods JT, Wortel V, Young K, Zagt R, Zemagho L, Zuidema PA, Zwerts JA, Phillips OL. Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth's tropical forests. Science (New York, NY). 2020 May;368(6493):869–874.
Journal cover image

Published In

Science (New York, N.Y.)

DOI

EISSN

1095-9203

ISSN

0036-8075

Publication Date

May 2020

Volume

368

Issue

6493

Start / End Page

869 / 874

Related Subject Headings

  • Wood
  • Tropical Climate
  • Trees
  • Hot Temperature
  • General Science & Technology
  • Forests
  • Earth, Planet
  • Climate Change
  • Carbon Cycle
  • Carbon