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Distinguishing Causes of Neighborhood Racial Change: A Nearest-Neighbor Design

Publication ,  Journal Article
Bayer, P; Casey, M; McCartney, WB; Orellana-Li, J; Zhang, C
Published in: American Economic Review
November 1, 2025

We study neighborhood choice using a novel research design that contrasts the move rate of homeowners who receive a new different-race neighbor immediately next-door versus slightly farther away on the same block. This approach isolates a component of preferences directly attributable to neighbors’identities. Both Black and White homeowners are more likely to move after receiving a new different-race neighbor. Findings are robust to additional controls (e.g., income) and alternative research designs. We find evidence of heterogeneity in responses, especially associated with housing density, which has implications for understanding contemporary neighborhood racial change and prospects for maintaining stable, integrated neighborhoods.

Duke Scholars

Published In

American Economic Review

DOI

EISSN

1944-7981

ISSN

0002-8282

Publication Date

November 1, 2025

Volume

115

Issue

11

Start / End Page

3999 / 4039

Related Subject Headings

  • Economics
  • 38 Economics
  • 35 Commerce, management, tourism and services
  • 15 Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services
  • 14 Economics
 

Citation

APA
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ICMJE
MLA
NLM
Bayer, P., Casey, M., McCartney, W. B., Orellana-Li, J., & Zhang, C. (2025). Distinguishing Causes of Neighborhood Racial Change: A Nearest-Neighbor Design. American Economic Review, 115(11), 3999–4039. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20240406
Bayer, P., M. Casey, W. B. McCartney, J. Orellana-Li, and C. Zhang. “Distinguishing Causes of Neighborhood Racial Change: A Nearest-Neighbor Design.” American Economic Review 115, no. 11 (November 1, 2025): 3999–4039. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20240406.
Bayer P, Casey M, McCartney WB, Orellana-Li J, Zhang C. Distinguishing Causes of Neighborhood Racial Change: A Nearest-Neighbor Design. American Economic Review. 2025 Nov 1;115(11):3999–4039.
Bayer, P., et al. “Distinguishing Causes of Neighborhood Racial Change: A Nearest-Neighbor Design.” American Economic Review, vol. 115, no. 11, Nov. 2025, pp. 3999–4039. Scopus, doi:10.1257/aer.20240406.
Bayer P, Casey M, McCartney WB, Orellana-Li J, Zhang C. Distinguishing Causes of Neighborhood Racial Change: A Nearest-Neighbor Design. American Economic Review. 2025 Nov 1;115(11):3999–4039.

Published In

American Economic Review

DOI

EISSN

1944-7981

ISSN

0002-8282

Publication Date

November 1, 2025

Volume

115

Issue

11

Start / End Page

3999 / 4039

Related Subject Headings

  • Economics
  • 38 Economics
  • 35 Commerce, management, tourism and services
  • 15 Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services
  • 14 Economics