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USFS Predictive Model Library: Fire and Timber Management

Publication ,  Report
Warnell, K; Olander, L; Minich, T; Killea, A; Fan, F
April 17, 2020

The concept of ecosystem services has been formalized into U.S. Forest Service decision-making over the past decade in response to the 2012 Forest Planning Act and Agency regulations and directives, but many practical questions remain about how to do this most effectively. Many USFS decisions use scenarios to assess how different management approaches will meet different objectives and what the trade-offs might be. Often this is done using predictive models developed by the USFS. Some of the models commonly used by the USFS do not yet include many ecosystem services outcomes, but there are other predictive models designed for ecosystem services that might help fill such gaps. This project explores how these non-USFS models could be combined with existing USFS models to provide a fuller analysis of ecosystem services outcomes from different management scenarios. We used an ecosystem service conceptual model as a framework to examine the utility of currently available predictive models for quantifying the effects of fire and timber management on ecosystem services and socioeconomic outcomes.

Duke Scholars

Publication Date

April 17, 2020

Publisher

Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions
 

Citation

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Warnell, K., Olander, L., Minich, T., Killea, A., & Fan, F. (2020). USFS Predictive Model Library: Fire and Timber Management. Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions.
Warnell, Katie, Lydia Olander, Taylor Minich, Allison Killea, and Fizzy Fan. “USFS Predictive Model Library: Fire and Timber Management.” Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions, April 17, 2020.
Warnell K, Olander L, Minich T, Killea A, Fan F. USFS Predictive Model Library: Fire and Timber Management. Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions; 2020 Apr.
Warnell, Katie, et al. USFS Predictive Model Library: Fire and Timber Management. Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions, 17 Apr. 2020.
Warnell K, Olander L, Minich T, Killea A, Fan F. USFS Predictive Model Library: Fire and Timber Management. Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions; 2020 Apr.

Publication Date

April 17, 2020

Publisher

Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions