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Fluctuating selection and global change: a synthesis and review on disentangling the roles of climate amplitude, predictability and novelty.

Publication ,  Journal Article
Bitter, MC; Wong, JM; Dam, HG; Donelan, SC; Kenkel, CD; Komoroske, LM; Nickols, KJ; Rivest, EB; Salinas, S; Burgess, SC; Lotterhos, KE
Published in: Proceedings. Biological sciences
August 2021

A formidable challenge for global change biologists is to predict how natural populations will respond to the emergence of conditions not observed at present, termed novel climates. Popular approaches to predict population vulnerability are based on the expected degree of novelty relative to the amplitude of historical climate fluctuations experienced by a population. Here, we argue that predictions focused on amplitude may be inaccurate because they ignore the predictability of environmental fluctuations in driving patterns of evolution and responses to climate change. To address this disconnect, we review major findings of evolutionary theory demonstrating the conditions under which phenotypic plasticity is likely to evolve in natural populations, and how plasticity decreases population vulnerability to novel environments. We outline key criteria that experimental studies should aim for to effectively test theoretical predictions, while controlling for the degree of climate novelty. We show that such targeted tests of evolutionary theory are rare, with marine systems being overall underrepresented in this venture despite exhibiting unique opportunities to test theory. We conclude that with more robust experimental designs that manipulate both the amplitude and predictability of fluctuations, while controlling for the degree of novelty, we may better predict population vulnerability to climate change.

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Published In

Proceedings. Biological sciences

DOI

EISSN

1471-2954

ISSN

0962-8452

Publication Date

August 2021

Volume

288

Issue

1957

Start / End Page

20210727

Related Subject Headings

  • Climate Change
  • Biological Evolution
  • Adaptation, Physiological
  • 41 Environmental sciences
  • 31 Biological sciences
  • 30 Agricultural, veterinary and food sciences
  • 11 Medical and Health Sciences
  • 07 Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences
  • 06 Biological Sciences
 

Citation

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Bitter, M. C., Wong, J. M., Dam, H. G., Donelan, S. C., Kenkel, C. D., Komoroske, L. M., … Lotterhos, K. E. (2021). Fluctuating selection and global change: a synthesis and review on disentangling the roles of climate amplitude, predictability and novelty. Proceedings. Biological Sciences, 288(1957), 20210727. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2021.0727
Bitter, M. C., J. M. Wong, H. G. Dam, S. C. Donelan, C. D. Kenkel, L. M. Komoroske, K. J. Nickols, et al. “Fluctuating selection and global change: a synthesis and review on disentangling the roles of climate amplitude, predictability and novelty.Proceedings. Biological Sciences 288, no. 1957 (August 2021): 20210727. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2021.0727.
Bitter MC, Wong JM, Dam HG, Donelan SC, Kenkel CD, Komoroske LM, et al. Fluctuating selection and global change: a synthesis and review on disentangling the roles of climate amplitude, predictability and novelty. Proceedings Biological sciences. 2021 Aug;288(1957):20210727.
Bitter, M. C., et al. “Fluctuating selection and global change: a synthesis and review on disentangling the roles of climate amplitude, predictability and novelty.Proceedings. Biological Sciences, vol. 288, no. 1957, Aug. 2021, p. 20210727. Epmc, doi:10.1098/rspb.2021.0727.
Bitter MC, Wong JM, Dam HG, Donelan SC, Kenkel CD, Komoroske LM, Nickols KJ, Rivest EB, Salinas S, Burgess SC, Lotterhos KE. Fluctuating selection and global change: a synthesis and review on disentangling the roles of climate amplitude, predictability and novelty. Proceedings Biological sciences. 2021 Aug;288(1957):20210727.
Journal cover image

Published In

Proceedings. Biological sciences

DOI

EISSN

1471-2954

ISSN

0962-8452

Publication Date

August 2021

Volume

288

Issue

1957

Start / End Page

20210727

Related Subject Headings

  • Climate Change
  • Biological Evolution
  • Adaptation, Physiological
  • 41 Environmental sciences
  • 31 Biological sciences
  • 30 Agricultural, veterinary and food sciences
  • 11 Medical and Health Sciences
  • 07 Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences
  • 06 Biological Sciences