Influence of growing season temperature and precipitation anomalies on crop yield in the southeastern United States

This study investigates the spatiotemporal relationships between growing season precipitation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature anomalies on yield for corn (Zea mays), soybean (Glycine max), cotton (Gossypium), peanut (arachis hypogaea), and sweet potato (Ipomoea batatas) crops in the southeastern United States (SEUS). Detrended county-level yield data (1981–2018) were analyzed alongside spatially derived growing season (May-Oct) climate anomalies. Results reveal that the relationships between climate anomalies and crop yield differ considerably across the SEUS based on the crop type and timing of meteorological extremes. Aligning with previous findings, surface crops in the region suffer considerable declines as a result of higher than normal maximum temperatures during the growing season, with the most significant losses occurring during the months of July and August when daytime temperatures frequently exceed ideal growing conditions. While the association is weaker, higher than normal minimum temperatures during critical crop development stages were also found to lead to significant declines in crop productivity. Notably, although drought conditions result in negative departures from expected yield, the findings of this study highlight that excess moisture in the latter part of the growing season (Sep-Oct) can be equally damaging for certain regional crops, including peanuts and sweet potatoes. The results of this study underscore the need for further research on the impact of climatic variability on regional and specialty crops in the era of anthropogenic climate change.

Duke Scholars

Author Ashley Ward