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The Social Cost of Ozone-Related Mortality Impacts From Methane Emissions.

Publication ,  Journal Article
McDuffie, EE; Sarofim, MC; Raich, W; Jackson, M; Roman, H; Seltzer, K; Henderson, BH; Shindell, DT; Collins, M; Anderton, J; Barr, S; Fann, N
Published in: Earth's future
September 2023

Atmospheric methane directly affects surface temperatures and indirectly affects ozone, impacting human welfare, the economy, and environment. The social cost of methane (SC-CH4) metric estimates the costs associated with an additional marginal metric ton of emissions. Current SC-CH4 estimates do not consider the indirect impacts associated with ozone production from changes in methane. We use global model simulations and a new BenMAP webtool to estimate respiratory-related deaths associated with increases in ozone from a pulse of methane emissions in 2020. By using an approach consistent with the current SC-CH4 framework, we monetize and discount annual damages back to present day values. We estimate that the methane-ozone mechanism is attributable to 760 (95% CI: 330-1200) respiratory-related deaths per million metric tons of methane globally, for a global net present damage of $1800/mT (95% CI: $760-$2800/Mt CH4; 2% Ramsey discount rate); this would double the current SC-CH4 if included. These physical impacts are consistent with recent studies, but comparing direct costs is challenging. Economic damages are sensitive to uncertainties in the exposure and health risks associated with tropospheric ozone, assumptions about future projections of NOx emissions, socioeconomic conditions, and mortality rates, monetization parameters, and other factors. Our estimates are highly sensitive to uncertainties in ozone health risks. We also develop a reduced form model to test sensitivities to other parameters. The reduced form tool runs with a user-supplied emissions pulse, as well as socioeconomic and precursor projections, enabling future integration of the methane-ozone mechanism into the SC-CH4 modeling framework.

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Published In

Earth's future

DOI

EISSN

2328-4277

ISSN

2328-4277

Publication Date

September 2023

Volume

11

Issue

9

Related Subject Headings

  • 3707 Hydrology
  • 3702 Climate change science
  • 0502 Environmental Science and Management
  • 0406 Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience
  • 0401 Atmospheric Sciences
 

Citation

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McDuffie, E. E., Sarofim, M. C., Raich, W., Jackson, M., Roman, H., Seltzer, K., … Fann, N. (2023). The Social Cost of Ozone-Related Mortality Impacts From Methane Emissions. Earth’s Future, 11(9). https://doi.org/10.1029/2023ef003853
McDuffie, Erin E., Marcus C. Sarofim, William Raich, Melanie Jackson, Henry Roman, Karl Seltzer, Barron H. Henderson, et al. “The Social Cost of Ozone-Related Mortality Impacts From Methane Emissions.Earth’s Future 11, no. 9 (September 2023). https://doi.org/10.1029/2023ef003853.
McDuffie EE, Sarofim MC, Raich W, Jackson M, Roman H, Seltzer K, et al. The Social Cost of Ozone-Related Mortality Impacts From Methane Emissions. Earth’s future. 2023 Sep;11(9).
McDuffie, Erin E., et al. “The Social Cost of Ozone-Related Mortality Impacts From Methane Emissions.Earth’s Future, vol. 11, no. 9, Sept. 2023. Epmc, doi:10.1029/2023ef003853.
McDuffie EE, Sarofim MC, Raich W, Jackson M, Roman H, Seltzer K, Henderson BH, Shindell DT, Collins M, Anderton J, Barr S, Fann N. The Social Cost of Ozone-Related Mortality Impacts From Methane Emissions. Earth’s future. 2023 Sep;11(9).

Published In

Earth's future

DOI

EISSN

2328-4277

ISSN

2328-4277

Publication Date

September 2023

Volume

11

Issue

9

Related Subject Headings

  • 3707 Hydrology
  • 3702 Climate change science
  • 0502 Environmental Science and Management
  • 0406 Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience
  • 0401 Atmospheric Sciences