Coercive Legacies: From Rebel Governance to Authoritarian Control

Ex-rebels govern almost a quarter of sub-Saharan Africa today. How does war affect these countries’ long-run political development, and what explains their rebel regimes’ longevity? The article explores the role of coercion in rebel governance: postwar governance draws from wartime strategies, which helps to explain (1) the continued use of organized coercion in postwar politics when faced with challenges to ruling party dominance and (2) where such coercion is most effectively employed. I examine Zimbabwe where the anticolonial rebel party has remained in power since 1980. I rely on archival data to qualitatively trace mechanisms, map prewar to current-day administrative divisions, and code a measure of wartime governance. I combine these data with Afrobarometer surveys to demonstrate long-run subnational variation in coercive political control. Findings deepen our understanding of war’s effects on peacetime politics and provide one explanation for infrequent political turnovers despite regular elections in many postconflict states.

Duke Scholars

Author Shelley Liu Sanford School of Public Policy