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Estimating unserved residential space-cooling needs without assuming arbitrary indoor set point temperatures: The case of Mexico

Publication ,  Journal Article
Adli, MI; Hernandez, M; Patino-Echeverri, D
Published in: Energy for Sustainable Development
April 1, 2024

This paper presents a method to estimate unserved residential space cooling needs in developing countries where the ownership of air conditioners (AC) is constrained by income. The method consists of first uncovering the relationship between weather and other factors explaining the existence of AC equipment in high income households, to later predict the need for AC equipment among similar households but of lower socio-economic statuses. In this way, the obtained estimates of the cooling gap are free of biases introduced by arbitrary assumptions of the temperatures and humidity levels that trigger adoption and use. Based on data from >100,000 surveys representative of the totality of households in Mexico, we estimate that between 4.9 and 7.2 million households or 14.85 % to 21.65 % of all, need but lack AC equipment. Assuming this cooling gap would be bridged with an efficient mini-split inverter heat pump with a capacity between 1 and 2 Tons, the required electric power generation capacity to supply the needed electricity would be between 3.69 and 10.77 GW (i.e., between 4 and 13 % of Mexico's capacity). Assuming usage patterns estimated from 2018 data, the new AC equipment installed would raise the country's electricity consumption by 5.96 TWh (95 % Confidence Interval (CI) is 3.30–12.17 TWh) or 8.10 % (95 % CI: 4.48 % - 16.54 %) of the residential demand observed in 2022.

Duke Scholars

Published In

Energy for Sustainable Development

DOI

EISSN

2352-4669

ISSN

0973-0826

Publication Date

April 1, 2024

Volume

79

Related Subject Headings

  • Energy
  • 44 Human society
  • 40 Engineering
  • 16 Studies in Human Society
  • 09 Engineering
 

Citation

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Adli, M. I., Hernandez, M., & Patino-Echeverri, D. (2024). Estimating unserved residential space-cooling needs without assuming arbitrary indoor set point temperatures: The case of Mexico. Energy for Sustainable Development, 79. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esd.2024.101379
Adli, M. I., M. Hernandez, and D. Patino-Echeverri. “Estimating unserved residential space-cooling needs without assuming arbitrary indoor set point temperatures: The case of Mexico.” Energy for Sustainable Development 79 (April 1, 2024). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esd.2024.101379.
Adli MI, Hernandez M, Patino-Echeverri D. Estimating unserved residential space-cooling needs without assuming arbitrary indoor set point temperatures: The case of Mexico. Energy for Sustainable Development. 2024 Apr 1;79.
Adli, M. I., et al. “Estimating unserved residential space-cooling needs without assuming arbitrary indoor set point temperatures: The case of Mexico.” Energy for Sustainable Development, vol. 79, Apr. 2024. Scopus, doi:10.1016/j.esd.2024.101379.
Adli MI, Hernandez M, Patino-Echeverri D. Estimating unserved residential space-cooling needs without assuming arbitrary indoor set point temperatures: The case of Mexico. Energy for Sustainable Development. 2024 Apr 1;79.
Journal cover image

Published In

Energy for Sustainable Development

DOI

EISSN

2352-4669

ISSN

0973-0826

Publication Date

April 1, 2024

Volume

79

Related Subject Headings

  • Energy
  • 44 Human society
  • 40 Engineering
  • 16 Studies in Human Society
  • 09 Engineering