Estimating unserved residential space-cooling needs without assuming arbitrary indoor set point temperatures: The case of Mexico

This paper presents a method to estimate unserved residential space cooling needs in developing countries where the ownership of air conditioners (AC) is constrained by income. The method consists of first uncovering the relationship between weather and other factors explaining the existence of AC equipment in high income households, to later predict the need for AC equipment among similar households but of lower socio-economic statuses. In this way, the obtained estimates of the cooling gap are free of biases introduced by arbitrary assumptions of the temperatures and humidity levels that trigger adoption and use. Based on data from >100,000 surveys representative of the totality of households in Mexico, we estimate that between 4.9 and 7.2 million households or 14.85 % to 21.65 % of all, need but lack AC equipment. Assuming this cooling gap would be bridged with an efficient mini-split inverter heat pump with a capacity between 1 and 2 Tons, the required electric power generation capacity to supply the needed electricity would be between 3.69 and 10.77 GW (i.e., between 4 and 13 % of Mexico's capacity). Assuming usage patterns estimated from 2018 data, the new AC equipment installed would raise the country's electricity consumption by 5.96 TWh (95 % Confidence Interval (CI) is 3.30–12.17 TWh) or 8.10 % (95 % CI: 4.48 % - 16.54 %) of the residential demand observed in 2022.

Duke Scholars

Author Dalia Patino-Echeverri Environmental Social Systems