Machine Learning for Targeted Advance Care Planning in Cancer Patients: A Quality Improvement Study.

CONTEXT: Prognostication challenges contribute to delays in advance care planning (ACP) for patients with cancer near the end of life (EOL). OBJECTIVES: Examine a quality improvement mortality prediction algorithm intervention's impact on ACP documentation and EOL care. METHODS: We implemented a validated mortality risk prediction machine learning model for solid malignancy patients admitted from the emergency department (ED) to a dedicated solid malignancy unit at Duke University Hospital. Clinicians received an email when a patient was identified as high-risk. We compared ACP documentation and EOL care outcomes before and after the notification intervention. We excluded patients with intensive care unit (ICU) admission in the first 24 hours. Comparisons involved chi-square/Fisher's exact tests and Wilcoxon rank sum tests; comparisons stratified by physician specialty employ Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel tests. RESULTS: Preintervention and postintervention cohorts comprised 88 and 77 patients, respectively. Most were White, non-Hispanic/Latino, and married. ACP conversations were documented for 2.3% of hospitalizations preintervention vs. 80.5% postintervention (P<0.001), and if the attending physician notified was a palliative care specialist (4.1% vs. 84.6%) or oncologist (0% vs. 76.3%) (P<0.001). There were no differences between groups in length of stay (LOS), hospice referral, code status change, ICU admissions or LOS, 30-day readmissions, 30-day ED visits, and inpatient and 30-day deaths. CONCLUSION: Identifying patients with cancer and high mortality risk via machine learning elicited a substantial increase in documented ACP conversations but did not impact EOL care. Our intervention showed promise in changing clinician behavior. Further integration of this model in clinical practice is ongoing.

Duke Scholars

Author Thomas William LeBlanc Medicine, Hematologic Malignancies and Cellular Therapy

Author Noppon Pooh Setji Medicine, General Internal Medicine

Author Syed Yousuf Zafar Medicine, Medical Oncology

Author Jessica Ma Medicine, Geriatrics and Palliative Care