Resumption Of Medicaid Eligibility Redeterminations: Little Change In Overall Insurance Coverage.

In anticipation of the end of the COVID-19 public health emergency, Congress ended the Medicaid continuous coverage requirement on March 31, 2023, allowing states to terminate coverage for ineligible people and resume eligibility determinations through a process known as unwinding. Although administrative data have documented substantial declines in Medicaid enrollment since April 2023, the impact on uninsurance is unknown. Using data from the Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey, we estimated the early effect of Medicaid unwinding on insurance coverage among people ages 19-64. We found that within the first three months of unwinding, the number of people self-reporting Medicaid coverage declined by approximately two million, and there was a much smaller, statistically insignificant decline in overall coverage of approximately 467,000 people. It appears that for many people, the availability of employer-sponsored insurance and other private coverage offset Medicaid coverage loss. These results suggest that the resumption of redeterminations has had less impact on uninsurance than was initially feared. Our findings highlight the importance of tracking coverage transitions during unwinding. By identifying populations at risk for uninsurance after Medicaid loss, these data could enhance the effectiveness of state outreach and enrollment assistance for people eligible for Marketplace coverage and subsidies.

Duke Scholars

Author M. Kate Bundorf Sanford School of Public Policy