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Modeling Crash Risk on Roadway Networks Using Bayesian Regression Trees

Publication ,  Journal Article
Dahl, BK; Heaton, MJ; Warr, RL; Fisher, JD; Schultz, GG
Published in: Technometrics
January 1, 2024

Statistical modeling of vehicle crashes leads to a better understanding of how and why such crashes occur. Due to the irregular network structure of roadways, analyses are typically confined to a single roadway rather than considering the entire network collectively. Here, we present methodology to model crash risk of vehicle crashes on irregular roadway networks and estimate how that risk varies with road characteristics. We model vehicle crashes observed on a road network as a Poisson point pattern with a piecewise linear intensity surface. Further, we combine Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) and spatial data analysis to accurately explain the intensity surface allowing inference on the effect of road characteristics on crash risk. We illustrate the methodology using a dataset of vehicle crashes on Interstate highways in Utah.

Duke Scholars

Published In

Technometrics

DOI

EISSN

1537-2723

ISSN

0040-1706

Publication Date

January 1, 2024

Related Subject Headings

  • Statistics & Probability
  • 4905 Statistics
  • 0104 Statistics
 

Citation

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Dahl, B. K., Heaton, M. J., Warr, R. L., Fisher, J. D., & Schultz, G. G. (2024). Modeling Crash Risk on Roadway Networks Using Bayesian Regression Trees. Technometrics. https://doi.org/10.1080/00401706.2024.2421752
Dahl, B. K., M. J. Heaton, R. L. Warr, J. D. Fisher, and G. G. Schultz. “Modeling Crash Risk on Roadway Networks Using Bayesian Regression Trees.” Technometrics, January 1, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1080/00401706.2024.2421752.
Dahl BK, Heaton MJ, Warr RL, Fisher JD, Schultz GG. Modeling Crash Risk on Roadway Networks Using Bayesian Regression Trees. Technometrics. 2024 Jan 1;
Dahl, B. K., et al. “Modeling Crash Risk on Roadway Networks Using Bayesian Regression Trees.” Technometrics, Jan. 2024. Scopus, doi:10.1080/00401706.2024.2421752.
Dahl BK, Heaton MJ, Warr RL, Fisher JD, Schultz GG. Modeling Crash Risk on Roadway Networks Using Bayesian Regression Trees. Technometrics. 2024 Jan 1;

Published In

Technometrics

DOI

EISSN

1537-2723

ISSN

0040-1706

Publication Date

January 1, 2024

Related Subject Headings

  • Statistics & Probability
  • 4905 Statistics
  • 0104 Statistics