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Planning for Growing Electricity Demand During an Era of Uncertain Renewables and Climate Policy

Publication ,  Report
Ross, M; Ewing, J; Murray, B; Profeta, T; Stout, R; Yoo, M
November 15, 2024

Electricity demand growth has accelerated significantly, a trend that is expected to continue for at least the next 5 to 10 years and is driven by new technologies such as data centers and the expansion of the manufacturing and industrial base in the United States. This demand growth is anticipated at a time when connecting new generating resources to the grid, particularly renewables, and expanding transmission has never been more difficult. New emissions rules for existing coal and new gas units (the EPA Final Greenhouse Gas [GHG] Rule) will also create additional pressure toward clean generation on the system. This analysis uses a variety of integrated resource plans from utilities and other groups to estimate how overall electricity demand may change over the next decade. The trends are then analyzed using an electricity capacity-planning-and-dispatch model to evaluate how the US system may respond in a world of high demand growth. The findings suggest that additional electricity needs are likely to be met with a combination of new natural-gas and renewables capacity. Limitations on the ability of the system to incorporate renewables may place significant upward pressure on emissions, as would repeal of parts or all of the GHG rules.

Duke Scholars

Publication Date

November 15, 2024

Publisher

Nicholas Institute for Energy, Environment & Sustainability
 

Citation

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Ross, M., Ewing, J., Murray, B., Profeta, T., Stout, R., & Yoo, M. (2024). Planning for Growing Electricity Demand During an Era of Uncertain Renewables and Climate Policy. Nicholas Institute for Energy, Environment & Sustainability.
Ross, Martin, John Ewing, Brian Murray, Timothy Profeta, Robert Stout, and Michael Yoo. “Planning for Growing Electricity Demand During an Era of Uncertain Renewables and Climate Policy.” Nicholas Institute for Energy, Environment & Sustainability, November 15, 2024.
Ross M, Ewing J, Murray B, Profeta T, Stout R, Yoo M. Planning for Growing Electricity Demand During an Era of Uncertain Renewables and Climate Policy. Nicholas Institute for Energy, Environment & Sustainability; 2024 Nov.
Ross, Martin, et al. Planning for Growing Electricity Demand During an Era of Uncertain Renewables and Climate Policy. Nicholas Institute for Energy, Environment & Sustainability, 15 Nov. 2024.
Ross M, Ewing J, Murray B, Profeta T, Stout R, Yoo M. Planning for Growing Electricity Demand During an Era of Uncertain Renewables and Climate Policy. Nicholas Institute for Energy, Environment & Sustainability; 2024 Nov.

Publication Date

November 15, 2024

Publisher

Nicholas Institute for Energy, Environment & Sustainability