JWST Validates HST Distance Measurements: Selection of Supernova Subsample Explains Differences in JWST Estimates of Local H0

We cross-check the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Cepheid/Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) distance ladder, which yields the most precise local H0, against early James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) subsamples (∼1/4 of the HST sample) from SH0ES and CCHP, calibrated only with NGC 4258. We find HST Cepheid distances agree well (∼1σ) with all combinations of methods, samples, and telescopes. The comparisons explicitly include the measurement uncertainty of each method in NGC 4258, an oft-neglected but dominant term. Mean differences are ∼0.03 mag, far smaller than the 0.18 mag “Hubble tension.” Combining all measures produces the strongest constraint yet on the linearity of HST Cepheid distances, 0.994 ±0.010, ruling out distance-dependent bias or offset as the source of the tension at ∼7σ. However, current JWST subsamples produce large sampling differences in H0 whose size and direction we can directly estimate from the full HST set. We show that ΔH0 ∼ 2.5 km s⁻¹ Mpc⁻¹ between the CCHP JWST program and the full HST sample is entirely consistent with differences in sample selection. We combine all JWST samples into a new distance-limited set of 16 SNe Ia at D ≤ 25 Mpc. Using JWST Cepheids, JAGB, and tip of the red giant branch, we find 73.4 ± 2.1, 72.2 ± 2.2, and 72.1 ± 2.2 km s⁻¹ Mpc⁻¹, respectively. Explicitly accounting for common supernovae, the three-method JWST result is H0 = 72.6 ± 2.0, similar to H0 = 72.8 expected from HST Cepheids in the same galaxies. The small JWST sample trivially lowers the Hubble tension significance due to small-sample statistics and is not yet competitive with the HST set (42 SNe Ia and 4 anchors), which yields 73.2 ± 0.9. Still, the joint JWST sample provides important cross-checks that the HST data pass.

Duke Scholars

Author Daniel M. Scolnic Physics