No Developmental Differences in Preferences for Epistemic Versus Physical Uncertainty Across Three Diverse Cultures.

We regularly make decisions under uncertainty, but the same decision can feel different when made under physical uncertainty, where a decision maker must guess at an outcome that has not yet occurred, and epistemic uncertainty, where the outcome has occurred but is unknown to the decision maker. Past research suggests that children prefer epistemic to physical uncertainty, but findings are conflicted as to whether this preference diminishes or even reverses over the course of development. We examined children's and adolescents' uncertainty preferences in three populations: urban communities in Iran (N = 100) and the United States (N = 56), and hunter-horticulturalist Tsimané communities in Bolivia (N = 54). In Bolivia and the United States, children preferred epistemic uncertainty, choosing games where they guessed an unknown outcome after it occurred, rather than before. Children in Iran showed the same pattern but no significant preference. Importantly, there were no age-related differences in preferences, challenging the idea that there may be a developmental shift toward preferring physical uncertainty. The observed consistency across participants, including those with no exposure to dice, suggests cultural familiarity with these artifacts may not be a major factor influencing decisions. Future research should examine whether apparent differences in adults' and children's preferences in prior studies might reflect a difference between hypothetical and in vivo decision-making rather than a developmental difference. SUMMARY: Past research suggests that children prefer guessing unknown outcomes after rather than before they occur. It was unclear whether this preference reverses during development, how much it varies across cultures, and how it's related to experience with artifacts like dice. In the USA, Iran, and among Tsimané foragers in Bolivia, we found a preference for guessing outcomes before they occur and no evidence of reversal. This research clarifies the (lack of) relationship between age and uncertainty preferences and suggests that physical uncertainty preferences may be more context-sensitive than previously believed.

Duke Scholars

Author Dorsa Amir Psychology & Neuroscience

Author Julia Smith