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Tree diversity is changing across tropical Andean and Amazonian forests in response to global change.

Publication ,  Journal Article
Fadrique, B; Costa, F; Cuesta, F; Arellano, G; Cayuela, L; Baker, TR; Draper, FC; Esquivel-Muelbert, A; Ter Steege, H; Bauters, M; Arets, E ...
Published in: Nature ecology & evolution
February 2026

Climate and atmospheric changes are impacting forest function and structure worldwide, but their effects on tropical forest diversity are unclear. Nowhere is the scientific challenge greater than in the Andes and the Amazon, which together include the world's most diverse forests. Here, using 406 permanent plots spanning four decades of intact lowland and montane forest dynamics, we test for long-term change in species richness and assess the influence of climate and other variables. We show that, at a continental scale, species richness appears stable, but this masks substantial regional variation. Species richness increased in Northern Andean and Western Amazon plots, yet declined in the Central Andes, Guyana Shield and Central-Eastern Amazon. Overall, warmer, drier and more seasonal forests lost species, while those at higher elevations, in less fragmented areas and with faster rates of tree turnover experienced increases. Region-specific drivers, particularly precipitation seasonality and demographic factors, modulated these trends. The results highlight the diverse ways in which Amazon-Andes forests are changing and underscore the critical need to preserve large-scale ecosystem integrity to maintain local tree diversity. By doing so, Northern Andean forests in particular could serve as an important refuge for species increasingly displaced by climate change.

Duke Scholars

Published In

Nature ecology & evolution

DOI

EISSN

2397-334X

ISSN

2397-334X

Publication Date

February 2026

Volume

10

Issue

2

Start / End Page

267 / 280

Related Subject Headings

  • Tropical Climate
  • Trees
  • South America
  • Seasons
  • Forests
  • Climate Change
  • Biodiversity
  • 4104 Environmental management
  • 3104 Evolutionary biology
  • 3103 Ecology
 

Citation

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Fadrique, B., Costa, F., Cuesta, F., Arellano, G., Cayuela, L., Baker, T. R., … Phillips, O. L. (2026). Tree diversity is changing across tropical Andean and Amazonian forests in response to global change. Nature Ecology & Evolution, 10(2), 267–280. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-025-02956-5
Fadrique, B., F. Costa, F. Cuesta, G. Arellano, L. Cayuela, T. R. Baker, F. C. Draper, et al. “Tree diversity is changing across tropical Andean and Amazonian forests in response to global change.Nature Ecology & Evolution 10, no. 2 (February 2026): 267–80. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-025-02956-5.
Fadrique B, Costa F, Cuesta F, Arellano G, Cayuela L, Baker TR, et al. Tree diversity is changing across tropical Andean and Amazonian forests in response to global change. Nature ecology & evolution. 2026 Feb;10(2):267–80.
Fadrique, B., et al. “Tree diversity is changing across tropical Andean and Amazonian forests in response to global change.Nature Ecology & Evolution, vol. 10, no. 2, Feb. 2026, pp. 267–80. Epmc, doi:10.1038/s41559-025-02956-5.
Fadrique B, Costa F, Cuesta F, Arellano G, Cayuela L, Baker TR, Draper FC, Esquivel-Muelbert A, Ter Steege H, Bauters M, Aguirre-Gutiérrez J, Aguirre-Mendoza Z, Alexiades MN, Alvarez-Davila E, Arets E, Ayala E, Aymard CGA, Baccaro F, Báez S, Baraloto C, Barbosa RI, Barbosa Camargo P, Barlow J, Barni PE, Barroso J, Benchimol M, Bennett AC, Berenguer E, Blanc L, Bonal D, Bongers F, Brienen R, Brown F, Bt Andrade M, Burban B, Burnham RJ, Camargo JL, Carvalho SPC, Castilho C, Chave J, Coelho de Souza F, Comiskey J, da Costa L, de Lima RB, de Oliveira EA, de Oliveira RLC, de Oliveira Perdiz R, De Rutte J, Del Aguila-Pasquel J, Derroire G, Di Fiore A, Disney M, Duque A, Emilio T, Farfan-Rios W, Fauset S, Fearnside PM, Feeley KJ, Feldpausch TR, Ferreira J, Ferreira L, Flores Llampazo GR, Galbraith D, García-Cabrera K, García Criado M, Gloor E, Grandez-Rios JM, Hérault B, Homeier J, Honorio Coronado EN, Huamantupa-Chuquimaco I, Huaraca Huasco W, Huillca-Aedo YT, Idárraga Á, Jadán-Maza O, Kalamandeen M, Killeen TJ, Laurance SGW, Laurance WF, Levesley A, Lopez W, Macía MJ, Magnusson WE, Malhi Y, Manzatto AG, Marimon BS, Marimon Junior BH, Martínez-Villa JA, Medeiros MB, Melgaço K, Melo L, Metzker T, Monteagudo A, Morandi PS, Myers JA, Nascimento HM, Nascimento R, Neill D, Nieto-Ariza B, Palacios WA, Palacios-Ramos S, Pallqui-Camacho NC, Pardo Molina G, Peacock J, Peña MA, Pennington RT, Peñuela MC, Peres CA, Pérez ÁJ, Pickavance GC, Pinto E, Pipoly J, Pitman N, Prieto A, Ramírez-Angulo H, Reis SM, Restrepo Z, Reynel C, Ribeiro S, Rivas-Torres G, Rojas R, Rudas A, Salinas N, Salomão RP, Santana F, Schietti J, Schwartz G, Serrano J, Silman M, Silva C, Silva CA, Silva RC, Silva RSA, Silva-Espejo J, Silveira M, Simon MF, Soto-Shareva YC, Souza PF, Storck-Tonon D, Stropp J, Swamy V, Tello JS, Terborgh J, Thomas R, Torres-Lezama A, Vale JD, Valenzuela Gamarra L, van der Heijden G, van der Hout P, van der Meer PJ, Vasquez Martinez R, Vedovato L, Verbeeck H, Vieira I, Vieira SA, Vilanova E, Vinceti B, Vos VA, Zagt R, Zuidema PA, Phillips OL. Tree diversity is changing across tropical Andean and Amazonian forests in response to global change. Nature ecology & evolution. 2026 Feb;10(2):267–280.

Published In

Nature ecology & evolution

DOI

EISSN

2397-334X

ISSN

2397-334X

Publication Date

February 2026

Volume

10

Issue

2

Start / End Page

267 / 280

Related Subject Headings

  • Tropical Climate
  • Trees
  • South America
  • Seasons
  • Forests
  • Climate Change
  • Biodiversity
  • 4104 Environmental management
  • 3104 Evolutionary biology
  • 3103 Ecology