Estimating probable maximum precipitation for the continental United States

Study region: The entire continental United States (CONUS).Study focusThe objective of this manuscript is to estimate Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) using multifractal analysis for CONUS and to evaluate the impact of recent extreme events on PMP estimation and associated return periods using high-resolution precipitation datasets, including model reanalysis ERA5L at 9 km resolution, and multi-sensor gauge-corrected reanalysis AORC at 4 km resolution.New hydrological insights for the regionThe results show a strong spatial alignment between extreme precipitation, multifractal parameters, topography, and weather regimes. There is a large magnitude gap in estimated PMP between model-based and multi-sensor gauge-corrected precipitation products. The 24-hour PMP with return periods of one thousand and one million years are approximately 400 mm and 2000 mm, respectively, when using ERA5L, and 800 mm and 6000 mm when using AORC. Precipitation accumulations from recent extreme events are in keeping with PMP estimates derived from multifractal analysis using AORC, with a return period of 103.

Duke Scholars

Author Ana P. Barros Civil and Environmental Engineering