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Understanding and predicting the effects of sparse data on demographic analyses

Publication ,  Journal Article
Doak, DF; Gross, K; Morris, WF
Published in: Ecology
January 1, 2005

Demographic models are an increasingly important tool in population biology. However, these models, especially stochastic matrix models, are based upon a multitude of parameters that must usually be estimated with only a few years of data and limited sample sizes within each year, calling into question the accuracy of the results of these models We first discuss how these data limitations create sampling uncertainty and bias in the estimated parameters for a stochastic demography model. Next, we ask whether limited data can favor the construction of deterministic models that ignore variation and correlation of rates. With less than five years of data, the mean squared error of deterministic models will sometimes be smaller than that of stochastic models, favoring the use of simple models even when their predictions are known to be biased. Finally, we introduce a procedure to estimate the sampling variation around population growth rate estimates made from demographic models that are based on specified sampling durations and intensities. © 2005 by the Ecological Society of America.

Duke Scholars

Published In

Ecology

DOI

ISSN

0012-9658

Publication Date

January 1, 2005

Volume

86

Issue

5

Start / End Page

1154 / 1163

Related Subject Headings

  • Ecology
  • 4102 Ecological applications
  • 3109 Zoology
  • 3103 Ecology
  • 0603 Evolutionary Biology
  • 0602 Ecology
  • 0501 Ecological Applications
 

Citation

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ICMJE
MLA
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Doak, D. F., Gross, K., & Morris, W. F. (2005). Understanding and predicting the effects of sparse data on demographic analyses. Ecology, 86(5), 1154–1163. https://doi.org/10.1890/04-0611
Doak, D. F., K. Gross, and W. F. Morris. “Understanding and predicting the effects of sparse data on demographic analyses.” Ecology 86, no. 5 (January 1, 2005): 1154–63. https://doi.org/10.1890/04-0611.
Doak DF, Gross K, Morris WF. Understanding and predicting the effects of sparse data on demographic analyses. Ecology. 2005 Jan 1;86(5):1154–63.
Doak, D. F., et al. “Understanding and predicting the effects of sparse data on demographic analyses.” Ecology, vol. 86, no. 5, Jan. 2005, pp. 1154–63. Scopus, doi:10.1890/04-0611.
Doak DF, Gross K, Morris WF. Understanding and predicting the effects of sparse data on demographic analyses. Ecology. 2005 Jan 1;86(5):1154–1163.
Journal cover image

Published In

Ecology

DOI

ISSN

0012-9658

Publication Date

January 1, 2005

Volume

86

Issue

5

Start / End Page

1154 / 1163

Related Subject Headings

  • Ecology
  • 4102 Ecological applications
  • 3109 Zoology
  • 3103 Ecology
  • 0603 Evolutionary Biology
  • 0602 Ecology
  • 0501 Ecological Applications