Monte Carlo analysis and Bayesian decision theory for assessing the effects of waste sites on groundwater, II: Applications

In the preceding paper a sequential Bayesian risk methodology is presented for the assessment of the effects of waste sites on groundwater. Specific details of the Monte Carlo implementation depend on the contaminant transport model employed. In the present paper the modifications used to adapt a deterministic numerical transport model for Monte Carlo analysis in the sequential algorithm are presented, followed by a sensitivity analysis of the resulting stochastic transport model. The sensitivity analysis assesses the impacts of the various sources of uncertainty incorporated, and emphasizes the need to explicitly consider such uncertainty in the process of risk assessment for regulatory decision. Similar modifications to a wide range of contaminant transport models have been incorporated into an advisory computer system for groundwater quality modeling and management. © 1989.

Duke Scholars

Author Miguel A. Medina Civil and Environmental Engineering