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A model to predict cardiovascular events in patients with newly diagnosed Wegener's granulomatosis and microscopic polyangiitis.

Publication ,  Journal Article
Suppiah, R; Judge, A; Batra, R; Flossmann, O; Harper, L; Höglund, P; Javaid, MK; Jayne, D; Mukhtyar, C; Westman, K; Davis, JC; Hoffman, GS ...
Published in: Arthritis Care Res (Hoboken)
April 2011

OBJECTIVE: To create a prognostic tool to quantify the 5-year cardiovascular (CV) risk in patients with newly diagnosed Wegener's granulomatosis (WG) and microscopic polyangiitis (MPA) without premorbid CV disease. METHODS: We reviewed CV outcomes during the long-term followup of patients in the first 4 European Vasculitis Study Group (EUVAS) trials of WG and MPA. CV events were defined as CV death, stroke, myocardial infarction, coronary artery bypass graft, or percutaneous coronary intervention. Logistic regression was performed to create a model to predict the absolute risk of a CV event. The model was tested using the Wegener's Granulomatosis Etanercept Trial (WGET) cohort. RESULTS: Seventy-four (13.8%) of 535 patients with 5 years of followup from the EUVAS trials had at least 1 CV event: 33 (11.7%) of 281 WG versus 41 (16.1%) of 254 MPA. The independent determinants of CV outcomes were older age (odds ratio [OR] 1.45, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.11-1.90), diastolic hypertension (OR 1.97, 95% CI 0.98-3.95), and positive proteinase 3 (PR3) antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (ANCA) status (OR 0.39, 95% CI 0.20-0.74). The model was validated using the WGET cohort (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.80). CONCLUSION: Within 5 years of diagnosis of WG or MPA, 14% of patients will have a CV event. We have constructed and validated a tool to quantify the risk of a CV event based on age, diastolic hypertension, and PR3 ANCA status in patients without prior CV disease. In patients with vasculitis, PR3 ANCA is associated with a reduced CV risk compared to myeloperoxidase ANCA or negative ANCA status.

Duke Scholars

Published In

Arthritis Care Res (Hoboken)

DOI

EISSN

2151-4658

Publication Date

April 2011

Volume

63

Issue

4

Start / End Page

588 / 596

Location

United States

Related Subject Headings

  • Risk Factors
  • Regression Analysis
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Middle Aged
  • Microscopic Polyangiitis
  • Male
  • Logistic Models
  • Humans
  • Granulomatosis with Polyangiitis
  • Follow-Up Studies
 

Citation

APA
Chicago
ICMJE
MLA
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Suppiah, R., Judge, A., Batra, R., Flossmann, O., Harper, L., Höglund, P., … Luqmani, R. (2011). A model to predict cardiovascular events in patients with newly diagnosed Wegener's granulomatosis and microscopic polyangiitis. Arthritis Care Res (Hoboken), 63(4), 588–596. https://doi.org/10.1002/acr.20433
Suppiah, Ravi, Andrew Judge, Rajbir Batra, Oliver Flossmann, Lorraine Harper, Peter Höglund, M Kassim Javaid, et al. “A model to predict cardiovascular events in patients with newly diagnosed Wegener's granulomatosis and microscopic polyangiitis.Arthritis Care Res (Hoboken) 63, no. 4 (April 2011): 588–96. https://doi.org/10.1002/acr.20433.
Suppiah R, Judge A, Batra R, Flossmann O, Harper L, Höglund P, et al. A model to predict cardiovascular events in patients with newly diagnosed Wegener's granulomatosis and microscopic polyangiitis. Arthritis Care Res (Hoboken). 2011 Apr;63(4):588–96.
Suppiah, Ravi, et al. “A model to predict cardiovascular events in patients with newly diagnosed Wegener's granulomatosis and microscopic polyangiitis.Arthritis Care Res (Hoboken), vol. 63, no. 4, Apr. 2011, pp. 588–96. Pubmed, doi:10.1002/acr.20433.
Suppiah R, Judge A, Batra R, Flossmann O, Harper L, Höglund P, Javaid MK, Jayne D, Mukhtyar C, Westman K, Davis JC, Hoffman GS, McCune WJ, Merkel PA, St Clair EW, Seo P, Spiera R, Stone JH, Luqmani R. A model to predict cardiovascular events in patients with newly diagnosed Wegener's granulomatosis and microscopic polyangiitis. Arthritis Care Res (Hoboken). 2011 Apr;63(4):588–596.
Journal cover image

Published In

Arthritis Care Res (Hoboken)

DOI

EISSN

2151-4658

Publication Date

April 2011

Volume

63

Issue

4

Start / End Page

588 / 596

Location

United States

Related Subject Headings

  • Risk Factors
  • Regression Analysis
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Middle Aged
  • Microscopic Polyangiitis
  • Male
  • Logistic Models
  • Humans
  • Granulomatosis with Polyangiitis
  • Follow-Up Studies