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A Bayesian hierarchical approach for combining case-control and prospective studies.

Publication ,  Journal Article
Müller, P; Parmigiani, G; Schildkraut, J; Tardella, L
Published in: Biometrics
September 1999

Motivated by the absolute risk predictions required in medical decision making and patient counseling, we propose an approach for the combined analysis of case-control and prospective studies of disease risk factors. The approach is hierarchical to account for parameter heterogeneity among studies and among sampling units of the same study. It is based on modeling the retrospective distribution of the covariates given the disease outcome, a strategy that greatly simplifies both the combination of prospective and retrospective studies and the computation of Bayesian predictions in the hierarchical case-control context. Retrospective modeling differentiates our approach from most current strategies for inference on risk factors, which are based on the assumption of a specific prospective model. To ensure modeling flexibility, we propose using a mixture model for the retrospective distributions of the covariates. This leads to a general nonlinear regression family for the implied prospective likelihood. After introducing and motivating our proposal, we present simple results that highlight its relationship with existing approaches, develop Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for inference and prediction, and present an illustration using ovarian cancer data.

Duke Scholars

Published In

Biometrics

DOI

ISSN

0006-341X

Publication Date

September 1999

Volume

55

Issue

3

Start / End Page

858 / 866

Location

England

Related Subject Headings

  • Statistics & Probability
  • Risk Factors
  • Retrospective Studies
  • Prospective Studies
  • Ovarian Neoplasms
  • Monte Carlo Method
  • Models, Statistical
  • Markov Chains
  • Humans
  • Female
 

Citation

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Müller, P., Parmigiani, G., Schildkraut, J., & Tardella, L. (1999). A Bayesian hierarchical approach for combining case-control and prospective studies. Biometrics, 55(3), 858–866. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0006-341x.1999.00858.x
Müller, P., G. Parmigiani, J. Schildkraut, and L. Tardella. “A Bayesian hierarchical approach for combining case-control and prospective studies.Biometrics 55, no. 3 (September 1999): 858–66. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0006-341x.1999.00858.x.
Müller P, Parmigiani G, Schildkraut J, Tardella L. A Bayesian hierarchical approach for combining case-control and prospective studies. Biometrics. 1999 Sep;55(3):858–66.
Müller, P., et al. “A Bayesian hierarchical approach for combining case-control and prospective studies.Biometrics, vol. 55, no. 3, Sept. 1999, pp. 858–66. Pubmed, doi:10.1111/j.0006-341x.1999.00858.x.
Müller P, Parmigiani G, Schildkraut J, Tardella L. A Bayesian hierarchical approach for combining case-control and prospective studies. Biometrics. 1999 Sep;55(3):858–866.
Journal cover image

Published In

Biometrics

DOI

ISSN

0006-341X

Publication Date

September 1999

Volume

55

Issue

3

Start / End Page

858 / 866

Location

England

Related Subject Headings

  • Statistics & Probability
  • Risk Factors
  • Retrospective Studies
  • Prospective Studies
  • Ovarian Neoplasms
  • Monte Carlo Method
  • Models, Statistical
  • Markov Chains
  • Humans
  • Female