The Overall Effect of the Business Cycle on Crime

This paper analyses the 13 business cycles since 1933 to provide evidence on the old question of whether recessions cause crime. Using data from the United States, we find that recessions are consistently associated with an uptick in burglary and robbery, and a reduction in theft of motor vehicles. There is no statistical association with homicide. These patterns are suggestive of the relative importance of the various channels by which economic conditions influence crime. © 2012 The Authors German Economic Review © 2012 Verein für Socialpolitik.

Duke Scholars

Author Philip J. Cook Sanford School of Public Policy