Admission prediction of expected final myocardial infarct size using weighted ST-segment, Q wave, and T wave measurements.

Formulas for predicting final acute myocardial infarction (MI) size from ST-segment deviation on an initial electrocardiogram were proposed by Aldrich et al. for anterior and inferior infarct locations. This study of 529 patients who did not receive thrombolytic therapy was performed to determine the effectiveness of the Aldrich formulas for predicting final QRS MI size; to propose new formulas for predicting final MI size using ST-segment deviation, Q wave, and T wave information in a development population of 322 patients; and to evaluate the new formulas in a randomly selected population of 207 patients. The Aldrich formulas achieved correlations with final infarct size of r = .40 for anterior and r = .43 for inferior MI locations in the present population which are weaker than those previously reported. Formulas that consider electrocardiographic parameters in addition to ST-segment deviation were proposed for both anterior and inferior final MI size. In the test set of 207 patients, these models explained 16.9% and 15.2% of the variation in final MI size for anterior and inferior locations respectively. They may prove useful in assessing the extent of myocardial salvage where interventions are to be tested.

Duke Scholars

Author Kerry L. Lee Biostatistics & Bioinformatics, Division of Biostatistics