Population viability analysis for red-cockaded woodpeckers in the Georgia Piedmont

Risk of extinction for a red-cockaded woodpecker Picoides borealis population was evaluated in the Piedmont National Wildlife Refuge and Hitchiti Experimental Forest (PNWR-HEF), Georgia. Using data from this population for 1983-88, demographic parameters were calculated. For the parameter set based on estimates that include newly banded, but not unbanded, birds, the model predicts a median time to extinction of 58 years, and a 0.87 probability of extinction over 100 years. For the parameter set based on estimates that include newly banded and unbanded birds, analysis shows that the population is growing and faces no risk of extinction. It cannot be determined which parameter set is more accurate. Sensitivity analysis shows that changes in juvenile survival have the greatest effect on the population trajectory. -from Authors

Duke Scholars

Author Lynn A. Maguire Environmental Social Systems