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Household and living arrangement projections at the subnational level: an extended cohort-component approach.

Publication ,  Journal Article
Zeng, Y; Land, KC; Wang, Z; Gu, D
Published in: Demography
June 2013

This article presents the core methodological ideas and empirical assessments of an extended cohort-component approach (known as the "ProFamy model"), and applications to simultaneously project household composition, living arrangements, and population sizes-gender structures at the subnational level in the United States. Comparisons of projections from 1990 to 2000 using this approach with census counts in 2000 for each of the 50 states and Washington, DC show that 68.0 %, 17.0 %, 11.2 %, and 3.8 % of the absolute percentage errors are <3.0 %, 3.0 % to 4.99 %, 5.0 % to 9.99 %, and ≥10.0 %, respectively. Another analysis compares average forecast errors between the extended cohort-component approach and the still widely used classic headship-rate method, by projecting number-of-bedrooms-specific housing demands from 1990 to 2000 and then comparing those projections with census counts in 2000 for each of the 50 states and Washington, DC. The results demonstrate that, compared with the extended cohort-component approach, the headship-rate method produces substantially more serious forecast errors because it cannot project households by size while the extended cohort-component approach projects detailed household sizes. We also present illustrative household and living arrangement projections for the five decades from 2000 to 2050, with medium-, small-, and large-family scenarios for each of the 50 states; Washington, DC; six counties of southern California; and the Minneapolis-St. Paul metropolitan area. Among many interesting numerical outcomes of household and living arrangement projections with medium, low, and high bounds, the aging of American households over the next few decades across all states/areas is particularly striking. Finally, the limitations of the present study and potential future lines of research are discussed.

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Published In

Demography

DOI

ISSN

0070-3370

Publication Date

June 2013

Volume

50

Issue

3

Start / End Page

827 / 852

Location

United States

Related Subject Headings

  • United States
  • Socioeconomic Factors
  • Research Design
  • Population Dynamics
  • Humans
  • Forecasting
  • Family Characteristics
  • Demography
  • Demography
  • Cohort Studies
 

Citation

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MLA
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Zeng, Y., Land, K. C., Wang, Z., & Gu, D. (2013). Household and living arrangement projections at the subnational level: an extended cohort-component approach. Demography, 50(3), 827–852. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-012-0171-3
Zeng, Yi, Kenneth C. Land, Zhenglian Wang, and Danan Gu. “Household and living arrangement projections at the subnational level: an extended cohort-component approach.Demography 50, no. 3 (June 2013): 827–52. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-012-0171-3.
Zeng, Yi, et al. “Household and living arrangement projections at the subnational level: an extended cohort-component approach.Demography, vol. 50, no. 3, June 2013, pp. 827–52. Pubmed, doi:10.1007/s13524-012-0171-3.
Journal cover image

Published In

Demography

DOI

ISSN

0070-3370

Publication Date

June 2013

Volume

50

Issue

3

Start / End Page

827 / 852

Location

United States

Related Subject Headings

  • United States
  • Socioeconomic Factors
  • Research Design
  • Population Dynamics
  • Humans
  • Forecasting
  • Family Characteristics
  • Demography
  • Demography
  • Cohort Studies