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An overall probability of winning heuristic for complex risky decisions: Choice and eye fixation evidence

Publication ,  Journal Article
Venkatraman, V; Payne, JW; Huettel, SA
Published in: Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes
November 1, 2014

When faced with multi-outcome gambles involving possibilities of both gains and losses, people often use a simple heuristic that maximizes the overall probability of winning (Pwin). Across three different studies, using choice data as well as process data from eye tracking, we demonstrate that the Pwin heuristic is a frequently used strategy for decisions involving complex (multiple outcome) mixed gambles. Crucially, we show systematic contextual and individual differences in the use of Pwin heuristic. We discuss the implication of these findings in the context of the broader debate about single versus multiple strategies in risky choice, and the need to extend the study of risky decision making from simple to more complex gambles.

Duke Scholars

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Published In

Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes

DOI

ISSN

0749-5978

Publication Date

November 1, 2014

Volume

125

Issue

2

Start / End Page

73 / 87

Related Subject Headings

  • Social Psychology
  • 52 Psychology
  • 35 Commerce, management, tourism and services
  • 17 Psychology and Cognitive Sciences
  • 15 Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services
 

Citation

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Venkatraman, V., Payne, J. W., & Huettel, S. A. (2014). An overall probability of winning heuristic for complex risky decisions: Choice and eye fixation evidence. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 125(2), 73–87. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.obhdp.2014.06.003
Venkatraman, V., J. W. Payne, and S. A. Huettel. “An overall probability of winning heuristic for complex risky decisions: Choice and eye fixation evidence.” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 125, no. 2 (November 1, 2014): 73–87. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.obhdp.2014.06.003.
Venkatraman V, Payne JW, Huettel SA. An overall probability of winning heuristic for complex risky decisions: Choice and eye fixation evidence. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes. 2014 Nov 1;125(2):73–87.
Venkatraman, V., et al. “An overall probability of winning heuristic for complex risky decisions: Choice and eye fixation evidence.” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, vol. 125, no. 2, Nov. 2014, pp. 73–87. Scopus, doi:10.1016/j.obhdp.2014.06.003.
Venkatraman V, Payne JW, Huettel SA. An overall probability of winning heuristic for complex risky decisions: Choice and eye fixation evidence. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes. 2014 Nov 1;125(2):73–87.
Journal cover image

Published In

Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes

DOI

ISSN

0749-5978

Publication Date

November 1, 2014

Volume

125

Issue

2

Start / End Page

73 / 87

Related Subject Headings

  • Social Psychology
  • 52 Psychology
  • 35 Commerce, management, tourism and services
  • 17 Psychology and Cognitive Sciences
  • 15 Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services