Patrick J. Eric Stallard
Research Professor in the Social Science Research Institute
I am a Research Professor in the Social Science Research Institute and Co-Director of the Biodemography of Aging Research Unit at Duke University. I am a Member of the American Academy of Actuaries, a Fellow of the Conference of Consulting Actuaries, and an Associate of the Society of Actuaries. My research expertise includes modeling and forecasting for biomedical demography and health/LTC actuarial practice. My expertise in these areas is evidenced by my five books, five monographs, 151 scientific articles, 84 actuarial publications, and my service on the 2007 Technical Panel on Assumptions and Methods of the Social Security Advisory Board, my 2007–2010 position as Deputy Editor of the scientific journal Demography, my winning of the Society of Actuaries’ Edward A. Lew Award in 2008 for the best paper in actuarial modeling (in the LTC area), and my 2011–2012 position as a Member of the NAS/IOM Panel on Measuring Medical Care Risk. My expertise in these areas is further evidenced by my scientific contributions in the areas of mortality, morbidity/disability, Alzheimer’s disease, biodemography of aging, and epidemiology and modeling. I was responsible for developing new algorithms for imputing missing assessments of cognitive impairments (CI) among institutionalized participants in the 1984 NLTCS—a critical step in the discovery of unexpectedly large declines in CI prevalence (compared to ADL declines) during 1984–2004. I was also responsible for the development of the longitudinal Grade of Membership model now being used for Alzheimer’s disease progression in collaboration with Yaakov Stern at Columbia University.
Current Appointments & Affiliations
- Research Professor in the Social Science Research Institute, Social Science Research Institute, University Institutes and Centers 2011
- Co-Director of the Biodemography of Aging Research Unit within DUPRI, Center for Population Health & Aging, Duke Population Research Institute 2018
- Faculty Research Scholar of DuPRI's Center for Population Health & Aging, Center for Population Health & Aging, Duke Population Research Institute 2011
Contact Information
- 2024 W. Main St., Erwin Mill Building, Room A102h, Durham, NC 27705
- Duke Box 90408, Durham, NC 27708-0408
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eric.stallard@duke.edu
(919) 668-2724
- Background
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Education, Training, & Certifications
- B.S., Duke University 1988
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Previous Appointments & Affiliations
- Co-Director of the Biodemographic Research Unit (BARU), Center for Population Health & Aging, Duke Population Research Institute 2014 - 2018
- Co-Director of the Biodemographic Research Unit within DuPRI, Center for Population Health & Aging, Duke Population Research Institute 2014 - 2017
- Research Professor of Sociology, Sociology, Trinity College of Arts & Sciences 2006 - 2011
- Research Professor in the Center for Demographic Studies, Demographic Studies, Trinity College of Arts & Sciences 1995 - 2006
- Associate Director for Management and Planning, Demographic Studies, Trinity College of Arts & Sciences 1999 - 2005
- Associate Research Professor, Demographic Studies, Trinity College of Arts & Sciences 1992 - 1995
- Recognition
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In the News
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FEB 20, 2017 Social Science Research Institute
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- Research
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Selected Grants
- Genetic Modulations of Morbidity Compression: A Population-Based Study awarded by National Institutes of Health 2020 - 2025
- Personalized genetic profiles of risk and resilience in Alzheimer's and vascular diseases awarded by National Institutes of Health 2020 - 2025
- Racial and Geographic Disparities in Risk and Survival of Alzheimer's Disease and Related Dementias: Effects of Over/UnderDiagnosis and Disease Severity awarded by National Institutes of Health 2019 - 2024
- Analysis: The Long Life Family Study awarded by Washington University in St. Louis 2019 - 2024
- Project 1: The Long Life Family Study awarded by Washington University in St. Louis 2019 - 2024
- Genetics of changes in population pyramids: Implications for health forecasting with a focus on Alzheimer's Disease and related dementias awarded by National Institute on Aging 2014 - 2023
- Predictors of Severity in Alzheimer's Disease awarded by Columbia University 2017 - 2022
- Long Life Family Study: Duke Univ./Univ. of Southern Denmark Field Center awarded by National Institutes of Health 2004 - 2019
- Actuarial Certification for Medicaid Upper Payment Limit for the Program of All-Inclusive Care for the Elderly (PACE) awarded by Hause Actuarial Solutions, Inc. 2017 - 2018
- Genetic Modulations of Morbidity Compression: A Population-Based Study awarded by National Institutes of Health 2016 - 2018
- Medicaid/Medicare Expenditures and Outcomes for the Program of All-Inclusive Care for Elderly (PACE) Compared to Alternative, Fee-for-Service Long-Term Services and Supports (LTSS) in Denver and Pueblo, Colorado awarded by InnovAge 2013 - 2017
- IPA Durham VA Medical Center GECDAC XiLiang Gu awarded by Durham Veterans Affairs Medical Center 2014 - 2015
- Evaluating New Genetic Effects on Health and Aging from Longitudinal Data awarded by National Institutes of Health 2007 - 2013
- Archiving and Dissemination of NLTCS Medicaid Data awarded by National Institutes of Health 2012 - 2013
- New Methods of Studying Aging, Health and Longevity: Combining Longitudinal Data awarded by National Institutes of Health 2009 - 2011
- Healthy Life at Risk: The Role of Senesence awarded by National Institutes of Health 2005 - 2011
- Aging Veterans Health Policy Model awarded by Department of Veterans Affairs 2003 - 2009
- Internet based dissemination of NLTCS data (Phase I SBIR revision) awarded by Informed Decisions, Inc 2002 - 2003
- Forecasting Models for Acute and Long Term Care awarded by National Institutes of Health 1996 - 2000
- Publications & Artistic Works
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Selected Publications
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Academic Articles
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Yashin, Anatoliy I., Konstantin G. Arbeev, Deqing Wu, Liubov S. Arbeeva, Olivia Bagley, Eric Stallard, Alexander M. Kulminski, et al. “Genetics of Human Longevity From Incomplete Data: New Findings From the Long Life Family Study.” The Journals of Gerontology. Series A, Biological Sciences and Medical Sciences 73, no. 11 (October 2018): 1472–81. https://doi.org/10.1093/gerona/gly057.Full Text
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Yashin, Anatoliy I., Fang Fang, Mikhail Kovtun, Deqing Wu, Matt Duan, Konstantin Arbeev, Igor Akushevich, et al. “Hidden heterogeneity in Alzheimer's disease: Insights from genetic association studies and other analyses.” Experimental Gerontology 107 (July 2018): 148–60. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.exger.2017.10.020.Full Text
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Akushevich, Igor, Arseniy P. Yashkin, Julia Kravchenko, Svetlana Ukraintseva, Eric Stallard, and Anatoliy I. Yashin. “Time Trends in the Prevalence of Neurocognitive Disorders and Cognitive Impairment in the United States: The Effects of Disease Severity and Improved Ascertainment.” J Alzheimers Dis 64, no. 1 (2018): 137–48. https://doi.org/10.3233/JAD-180060.Full Text Link to Item
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Stallard, Eric, Bruce Kinosian, and Yaakov Stern. “Personalized predictive modeling for patients with Alzheimer's disease using an extension of Sullivan's life table model.” Alzheimer’S Research & Therapy 9, no. 1 (September 2017): 75. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13195-017-0302-6.Full Text
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Kulminski, Alexander M., Yelena Kernogitski, Irina Culminskaya, Yury Loika, Konstantin G. Arbeev, Olivia Bagley, Matt Duan, et al. “Uncoupling associations of risk alleles with endophenotypes and phenotypes: insights from the ApoB locus and heart-related traits.” Aging Cell 16, no. 1 (February 2017): 61–72. https://doi.org/10.1111/acel.12526.Full Text Open Access Copy
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Zhbannikov, Ilya Y., Konstantin Arbeev, Igor Akushevich, Eric Stallard, and Anatoliy I. Yashin. “stpm: an R package for stochastic process model.” Bmc Bioinformatics 18, no. 1 (February 2017): 125. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12859-017-1538-7.Full Text Open Access Copy
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Pedersen, Jacob K., Irma T. Elo, Nicole Schupf, Thomas T. Perls, Eric Stallard, Anatoliy I. Yashin, and Kaare Christensen. “The Survival of Spouses Marrying Into Longevity-Enriched Families.” The Journals of Gerontology. Series A, Biological Sciences and Medical Sciences 72, no. 1 (January 2017): 109–14. https://doi.org/10.1093/gerona/glw159.Full Text Open Access Copy
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Stallard, E. “Compression of Morbidity and Mortality: New Perspectives.” North American Actuarial Journal 20, no. 4 (October 1, 2016): 341–54. https://doi.org/10.1080/10920277.2016.1227269.Full Text Open Access Copy
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Kulminski, Alexander M., Yury Loika, Irina Culminskaya, Konstantin G. Arbeev, Svetlana V. Ukraintseva, Eric Stallard, and Anatoliy I. Yashin. “Explicating heterogeneity of complex traits has strong potential for improving GWAS efficiency.” Scientific Reports 6 (October 2016): 35390. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep35390.Full Text Open Access Copy
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Ukraintseva, Svetlana, Anatoliy Yashin, Konstantin Arbeev, Alexander Kulminski, Igor Akushevich, Deqing Wu, Gaurang Joshi, Kenneth C. Land, and Eric Stallard. “Puzzling role of genetic risk factors in human longevity: "risk alleles" as pro-longevity variants.” Biogerontology 17, no. 1 (February 2016): 109–27. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10522-015-9600-1.Full Text Open Access Copy
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Yashin, Anatoliy I., Konstantin G. Arbeev, Liubov S. Arbeeva, Deqing Wu, Igor Akushevich, Mikhail Kovtun, Arseniy Yashkin, et al. “How the effects of aging and stresses of life are integrated in mortality rates: insights for genetic studies of human health and longevity.” Biogerontology 17, no. 1 (February 2016): 89–107. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10522-015-9594-8.Full Text Open Access Copy
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Yashin, Anatoliy I., Ilya Zhbannikov, Liubov Arbeeva, Konstantin G. Arbeev, Deqing Wu, Igor Akushevich, Arseniy Yashkin, et al. “Pure and Confounded Effects of Causal SNPs on Longevity: Insights for Proper Interpretation of Research Findings in GWAS of Populations with Different Genetic Structures.” Frontiers in Genetics 7 (January 2016): 188. https://doi.org/10.3389/fgene.2016.00188.Full Text Open Access Copy
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He, Shuang, Bruce A. Craig, Huiping Xu, Kenneth E. Covinsky, Eric Stallard, Joseph Thomas, Zach Hass, and Laura P. Sands. “Unmet Need for ADL Assistance Is Associated With Mortality Among Older Adults With Mild Disability.” The Journals of Gerontology. Series A, Biological Sciences and Medical Sciences 70, no. 9 (September 2015): 1128–32. https://doi.org/10.1093/gerona/glv028.Full Text Open Access Copy
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Kulminski, Alexander M., Konstantin G. Arbeev, Irina Culminskaya, Svetlana V. Ukraintseva, Eric Stallard, Michael A. Province, and Anatoli I. Yashin. “Trade-offs in the effects of the apolipoprotein E polymorphism on risks of diseases of the heart, cancer, and neurodegenerative disorders: insights on mechanisms from the Long Life Family Study.” Rejuvenation Research 18, no. 2 (April 2015): 128–35. https://doi.org/10.1089/rej.2014.1616.Full Text Open Access Copy
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Kulminski, Alexander M., Irina Culminskaya, Konstantin G. Arbeev, Liubov Arbeeva, Svetlana V. Ukraintseva, Eric Stallard, Deqing Wu, and Anatoliy I. Yashin. “Birth Cohort, Age, and Sex Strongly Modulate Effects of Lipid Risk Alleles Identified in Genome-Wide Association Studies.” Plos One 10, no. 8 (January 2015): e0136319. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0136319.Full Text Open Access Copy
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Yashin, Anatoliy I., Deqing Wu, Liubov S. Arbeeva, Konstantin G. Arbeev, Alexander M. Kulminski, Igor Akushevich, Mikhail Kovtun, et al. “Genetics of aging, health, and survival: dynamic regulation of human longevity related traits.” Frontiers in Genetics 6 (January 2015): 122. https://doi.org/10.3389/fgene.2015.00122.Full Text Open Access Copy
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Kulminski, A. M., K. G. Arbeev, I. Culminskaya, L. Arbeeva, S. V. Ukraintseva, E. Stallard, K. Christensen, N. Schupf, M. A. Province, and A. I. Yashin. “Age, Gender, and Cancer but Not Neurodegenerative and Cardiovascular Diseases Strongly Modulate Systemic Effect of the Apolipoprotein E4 Allele on Lifespan.” Plos Genetics 10, no. 1 (January 1, 2014). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgen.1004141.Full Text
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Razlighi, Qolamreza R., Eric Stallard, Jason Brandt, Deborah Blacker, Marilyn Albert, Nikolaos Scarmeas, Bruce Kinosian, Anatoliy I. Yashin, and Yaakov Stern. “A new algorithm for predicting time to disease endpoints in Alzheimer's disease patients.” Journal of Alzheimer’S Disease : Jad 38, no. 3 (January 2014): 661–68. https://doi.org/10.3233/jad-131142.Full Text Open Access Copy
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Kulminski, Alexander M., Konstantin G. Arbeev, Irina Culminskaya, Liubov Arbeeva, Svetlana V. Ukraintseva, Eric Stallard, Kaare Christensen, Nicole Schupf, Michael A. Province, and Anatoli I. Yashin. “Age, gender, and cancer but not neurodegenerative and cardiovascular diseases strongly modulate systemic effect of the Apolipoprotein E4 allele on lifespan.” Plos Genetics 10, no. 1 (January 2014): e1004141. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgen.1004141.Full Text Open Access Copy
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Kulminski, Alexander M., Konstantin G. Arbeev, Kaare Christensen, Eric Stallard, Iva Miljkovic, Michael Barmada, and Anatoliy I. Yashin. “Biogenetic mechanisms predisposing to complex phenotypes in parents may function differently in their children.” J Gerontol a Biol Sci Med Sci 68, no. 7 (July 2013): 760–68. https://doi.org/10.1093/gerona/gls243.Full Text Open Access Copy Link to Item
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Depalma, Glen, Huiping Xu, Kenneth E. Covinsky, Bruce A. Craig, Eric Stallard, Joseph Thomas, and Laura P. Sands. “Hospital readmission among older adults who return home with unmet need for ADL disability.” The Gerontologist 53, no. 3 (June 2013): 454–61. https://doi.org/10.1093/geront/gns103.Full Text
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Kulminski, Alexander M., Irina Culminskaya, Konstantin G. Arbeev, Svetlana V. Ukraintseva, Eric Stallard, Liubov Arbeeva, and Anatoli I. Yashin. “The role of lipid-related genes, aging-related processes, and environment in healthspan.” Aging Cell 12, no. 2 (April 2013): 237–46. https://doi.org/10.1111/acel.12046.Full Text Open Access Copy
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Wieland, Darryl, Bruce Kinosian, Eric Stallard, and Rebecca Boland. “Does Medicaid pay more to a program of all-inclusive care for the elderly (PACE) than for fee-for-service long-term care?” The Journals of Gerontology. Series A, Biological Sciences and Medical Sciences 68, no. 1 (January 2013): 47–55. https://doi.org/10.1093/gerona/gls137.Full Text Open Access Copy
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Yashin, Anatoliy I., Deqing Wu, Konstantin G. Arbeev, Alexander M. Kulminski, Eric Stallard, and Svetlana V. Ukraintseva. “Why does melanoma metastasize into the brain? Genes with pleiotropic effects might be the key.” Frontiers in Genetics 4 (January 2013): 75. https://doi.org/10.3389/fgene.2013.00075.Full Text Open Access Copy
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Yashin, Anatoliy I., Konstantin G. Arbeev, Deqing Wu, Liubov S. Arbeeva, Alexander M. Kulminski, Igor Akushevich, Irina Culminskaya, Eric Stallard, and Svetlana V. Ukraintseva. “How the quality of GWAS of human lifespan and health span can be improved.” Frontiers in Genetics 4 (January 2013): 125. https://doi.org/10.3389/fgene.2013.00125.Full Text Open Access Copy
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Yashin, Anatoliy I., Konstantin G. Arbeev, Deqing Wu, Liubov S. Arbeeva, Alexander Kulminski, Igor Akushevich, Irina Culminskaya, Eric Stallard, and Svetlana V. Ukraintseva. “How lifespan associated genes modulate aging changes: lessons from analysis of longitudinal data.” Frontiers in Genetics 4 (January 2013): 3. https://doi.org/10.3389/fgene.2013.00003.Full Text Open Access Copy
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Yashin, Anatoliy I., Deqing Wu, Konstantin G. Arbeev, Eric Stallard, Kenneth C. Land, and Svetlana V. Ukraintseva. “How genes influence life span: the biodemography of human survival.” Rejuvenation Research 15, no. 4 (August 2012): 374–80. https://doi.org/10.1089/rej.2011.1290.Full Text Open Access Copy
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Yashin, A. I., K. G. Arbeev, I. Akushevich, A. Kulminski, S. V. Ukraintseva, E. Stallard, and K. C. Land. “Modeling longitudinal data on health aging and life span.” Physics of Life Reviews 9, no. 2 (June 1, 2012): 195–97. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.plrev.2012.05.018.Full Text Open Access Copy
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Yashin, A. I., K. G. Arbeev, I. Akushevich, A. Kulminski, S. V. Ukraintseva, E. Stallard, and K. C. Land. “The quadratic hazard model for analyzing longitudinal data on aging, health, and the life span.” Physics of Life Reviews 9, no. 2 (June 2012): 177–88. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.plrev.2012.05.002.Full Text Open Access Copy
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Xu, Huiping, Kenneth E. Covinsky, Eric Stallard, Joseph Thomas, and Laura P. Sands. “Insufficient help for activity of daily living disabilities and risk of all-cause hospitalization.” Journal of the American Geriatrics Society 60, no. 5 (May 2012): 927–33. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1532-5415.2012.03926.x.Full Text
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Mazonas, P. M. R., P. J. E. Stallard, and L. Graham. “Longevity risk in fair valuing level 3 assets in securitised portfolios.” Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance: Issues and Practice 36, no. 4 (October 1, 2011): 516–43. https://doi.org/10.1057/gpp.2011.25.Full Text
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Stallard, E. “Estimates of the Incidence, Prevalence, Duration, Intensity, and Cost of Chronic Disability Among the U.S. Elderly.” North American Actuarial Journal 15, no. 1 (January 1, 2011): 32–58. https://doi.org/10.1080/10920277.2011.10597608.Full Text
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Stallard, Eric, Bruce Kinosian, Arthur S. Zbrozek, Anatoliy I. Yashin, Henry A. Glick, and Yaakov Stern. “Estimation and validation of a multiattribute model of Alzheimer disease progression.” Medical Decision Making : An International Journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making 30, no. 6 (November 2010): 625–38. https://doi.org/10.1177/0272989x10363479.Full Text Open Access Copy
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Stallard, E. “Long term care for aging populations,” December 1, 2008, 114–26. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-012373960-5.00109-X.Full Text
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Stallard, E. “Trajectories of Morbidity, Disability, and Mortality among the U.S. Elderly Population: Evidence from the 1984–1999 NLTCS.” North American Actuarial Journal 11, no. 3 (July 1, 2007): 16–53. https://doi.org/10.1080/10920277.2007.10597465.Full Text
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Kinosian, Bruce, Eric Stallard, and Darryl Wieland. “Projected use of long-term-care services by enrolled Veterans.” The Gerontologist 47, no. 3 (June 2007): 356–64. https://doi.org/10.1093/geront/47.3.356.Full Text
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Stallard, E. “Demographic issues in longevity risk analysis.” Journal of Risk and Insurance 73, no. 4 (December 1, 2006): 575–609. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6975.2006.00190.x.Full Text
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Kravchenko, Julia, Pascal J. Goldschmidt-Clermont, Tiffany Powell, Eric Stallard, Igor Akushevich, Michael S. Cuffe, and Kenneth G. Manton. “Endothelial progenitor cell therapy for atherosclerosis: the philosopher's stone for an aging population?” Sci Aging Knowledge Environ 2005, no. 25 (June 22, 2005): pe18. https://doi.org/10.1126/sageke.2005.25.pe18.Full Text Link to Item
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Yi, Z., E. Stallard, and Z. Wang. “Computing time-varying sex-age-specific rates of marriage/union formation and dissolution in family household projection or simulation.” Demographic Research 11 (December 3, 2004): 263–304. https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2004.11.10.Full Text
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Stallard, E. “Underlying and Multiple Case Mortality Advanced Ages: United States 1980-1998.” North American Actuarial Journal 6, no. 3 (July 1, 2002): 64–87. https://doi.org/10.1080/10920277.2002.11073999.Full Text
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Stallard, E. “Product liability forecasting for asbestos-related personal injury claims: a multidisciplinary approach.” Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences 954 (December 2001): 223–44. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1749-6632.2001.tb02754.x.Full Text
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Kinosian, B. P., E. Stallard, J. H. Lee, M. A. Woodbury, A. S. Zbrozek, and H. A. Glick. “Predicting 10-year care requirements for older people with suspected Alzheimer's disease.” Journal of the American Geriatrics Society 48, no. 6 (June 2000): 631–38. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1532-5415.2000.tb04720.x.Full Text
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Stallard, E. ““combining life table data”, gilbert w. Fellingham and h. Dennis tolley, july, 1999.” North American Actuarial Journal 3, no. 3 (July 1, 1999): 38–39. https://doi.org/10.1080/10920277.1999.10595824.Full Text
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Manton, K. G., and E. Stallard. “Forecasting methods for HIV/AIDS and aging.” Research on Aging 20, no. 6 (November 1, 1998): 846–64. https://doi.org/10.1177/0164027598206011.Full Text
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Manton, K. G., E. Stallard, and L. Corder. “Economic Effects of Reducing Disability.” American Economic Review 88, no. 2 (May 1, 1998): 101–5.
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Manton, K. G., E. Stallard, and L. S. Corder. “The dynamics of dimensions of age-related disability 1982 to 1994 in the U.S. elderly population.” The Journals of Gerontology. Series A, Biological Sciences and Medical Sciences 53, no. 1 (January 1998): B59–70. https://doi.org/10.1093/gerona/53a.1.b59.Full Text
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Manton, K. G., E. Stallard, and L. Corder. “Education-specific estimates of life expectancy and age-specific disability in the U.S. elderly population: 1982 to 1991.” Journal of Aging and Health 9, no. 4 (November 1997): 419–50. https://doi.org/10.1177/089826439700900401.Full Text
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Manton, K. G., L. S. Corder, and E. Stallard. “Monitoring changes in the health of the U.S. elderly population: correlates with biomedical research and clinical innovations.” Faseb Journal : Official Publication of the Federation of American Societies for Experimental Biology 11, no. 12 (October 1997): 923–30. https://doi.org/10.1096/fasebj.11.12.9337144.Full Text
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Manton, K. G., L. Corder, and E. Stallard. “Chronic disability trends in elderly United States populations: 1982-1994.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 94, no. 6 (March 1997): 2593–98. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.94.6.2593.Full Text
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Manton, K. G., E. Stallard, and L. Corder. “Changes in the age dependence of mortality and disability: cohort and other determinants.” Demography 34, no. 1 (February 1997): 135–57. https://doi.org/10.2307/2061664.Full Text
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Manton, K. G., and E. Stallard. “Longevity in the united states: age and sex-specific evidence on life span limits from mortality patterns 1960-1990.” The Journals of Gerontology. Series A, Biological Sciences and Medical Sciences 51, no. 5 (September 1996): B362–75. https://doi.org/10.1093/gerona/51a.5.b362.Full Text
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Manton, K. G., and E. Stallard. “Changes in health, mortality, and disability and their impact on long-term care needs.” Journal of Aging & Social Policy 7, no. 3–4 (January 1996): 25–52. https://doi.org/10.1300/j031v07n03_03.Full Text
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Manton, K. G., M. A. Woodbury, and E. Stallard. “Sex differences in human mortality and aging at late ages: the effect of mortality selection and state dynamics.” The Gerontologist 35, no. 5 (October 1995): 597–608. https://doi.org/10.1093/geront/35.5.597.Full Text
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Manton, K. G., E. Stallard, and L. Corder. “Changes in morbidity and chronic disability in the U.S. elderly population: evidence from the 1982, 1984, and 1989 National Long Term Care Surveys.” The Journals of Gerontology. Series B, Psychological Sciences and Social Sciences 50, no. 4 (July 1995): S194–204. https://doi.org/10.1093/geronb/50b.4.s194.Full Text
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Yashin, A. I., K. G. Manton, M. A. Woodbury, and E. Stallard. “The effects of health histories on stochastic process models of aging and mortality.” Journal of Mathematical Biology 34, no. 1 (January 1995): 1–16. https://doi.org/10.1007/bf00180134.Full Text
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Manton, K. G., E. Stallard, M. A. Woodbury, and J. E. Dowd. “Time-varying covariates in models of human mortality and aging: multidimensional generalizations of the Gompertz.” Journal of Gerontology 49, no. 4 (July 1994): B169–90. https://doi.org/10.1093/geronj/49.4.b169.Full Text
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Manton, K. G., E. Stallard, and M. A. Woodbury. “Home health and skilled nursing facility use: 1982-90.” Health Care Financing Review 16, no. 1 (January 1994): 155–86.
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Manton, K. G., E. Stallard, and K. Liu. “Forecasts of active life expectancy: policy and fiscal implications.” Journal of Gerontology 48 Spec No (September 1993): 11–26. https://doi.org/10.1093/geronj/48.special_issue.11.Full Text
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Manton, K. G., M. A. Woodbury, J. C. Vertrees, and E. Stallard. “Use of Medicare services before and after introduction of the prospective payment system.” Health Services Research 28, no. 3 (August 1993): 269–92.
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Manton, K. G., L. S. Corder, and E. Stallard. “Estimates of change in chronic disability and institutional incidence and prevalence rates in the U.S. elderly population from the 1982, 1984, and 1989 National Long Term Care Survey.” Journal of Gerontology 48, no. 4 (July 1993): S153–66. https://doi.org/10.1093/geronj/48.4.s153.Full Text
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Manton, K. G., L. Corder, and E. Stallard. “Changes in the use of personal assistance and special equipment from 1982 to 1989: results from the 1982 and 1989 NLTCS.” The Gerontologist 33, no. 2 (April 1993): 168–76. https://doi.org/10.1093/geront/33.2.168.Full Text
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Manton, K. G., E. Stallard, and B. Singer. “Projecting the future size and health status of the U.S. elderly population.” International Journal of Forecasting 8, no. 3 (November 1992): 433–58. https://doi.org/10.1016/0169-2070(92)90057-g.Full Text
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Manton, K. G., and E. Stallard. “Demographics (1950-1987) of breast cancer in birth cohorts of older women.” Journal of Gerontology 47 Spec No (November 1992): 32–42.
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Pekkanen, J., K. G. Manton, E. Stallard, A. Nissinen, and M. J. Karvonen. “Risk factor dynamics, mortality and life expectancy differences between eastern and western Finland: the Finnish Cohorts of the Seven Countries Study.” International Journal of Epidemiology 21, no. 2 (April 1992): 406–19. https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/21.2.406.Full Text
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Manton, K. G., and E. Stallard. “Analysis of underwriting factors for AAPCC (adjusted average per capita cost).” Health Care Financing Review 14, no. 1 (January 1992): 117–32.
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Riggan, W. B., K. G. Manton, J. P. Creason, M. A. Woodbury, and E. Stallard. “Assessment of spatial variation of risks in small populations.” Environmental Health Perspectives 96 (December 1991): 223–38. https://doi.org/10.1289/ehp.9196223.Full Text
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Manton, K. G., M. A. Woodbury, and E. Stallard. “Statistical and measurement issues in assessing the welfare status of aged individuals and populations.” Journal of Econometrics 50, no. 1–2 (October 11, 1991): 151–81. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(91)90094-T.Full Text
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Manton, K. G., E. Stallard, and S. Wing. “Analyses of black and white differentials in the age trajectory of mortality in two closed cohort studies.” Statistics in Medicine 10, no. 7 (July 1991): 1043–59. https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.4780100705.Full Text
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Rogan, W. J., P. J. Blanton, C. J. Portier, and E. Stallard. “Should the presence of carcinogens in breast milk discourage breast feeding?” Regulatory Toxicology and Pharmacology : Rtp 13, no. 3 (June 1991): 228–40. https://doi.org/10.1016/0273-2300(91)90065-4.Full Text
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Manton, K. G., and E. Stallard. “Cross-sectional estimates of active life expectancy for the U.S. elderly and oldest-old populations.” Journal of Gerontology 46, no. 3 (May 1991): S170–82. https://doi.org/10.1093/geronj/46.3.s170.Full Text
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Manton, K. G., M. A. Woodbury, E. Stallard, W. B. Riggan, J. P. Creason, and A. C. Pellom. “Empirical Bayes procedures for stabilizing maps of U.S. cancer mortality rates.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 84, no. 407 (September 1989): 637–50. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1989.10478816.Full Text
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Yashin, A. I., K. G. Manton, and E. Stallard. “The propagation of uncertainty in human mortality processes operating in stochastic environments.” Theoretical Population Biology 35, no. 2 (April 1989): 119–41. https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-5809(89)90013-0.Full Text
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Wolf, H. K., P. M. Rautaharju, K. G. Manton, and E. Stallard. “Importance of electrocardiography for coronary risk factor surveys.” Lancet (London, England) 2, no. 8611 (September 1988): 633–34. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(88)90675-7.Full Text
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Manton, K. G., M. A. Woodbury, and E. Stallard. “Commentary. Response to Dr Halperin on ‘models of the interaction of mortality and the evolution of risk factor distribution: A general stochastic process formulation’.” Statistics in Medicine 7, no. 1–2 (January 1, 1988): 293–95. https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.4780070129.Full Text
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Manton, K. G., M. A. Woodbury, and E. Stallard. “Models of the interaction of mortality and the evolution of risk factor distribution: a general stochastic process formulation.” Statistics in Medicine 7, no. 1–2 (January 1988): 239–56. https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.4780070125.Full Text
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Manton, K. G., E. Stallard, M. A. Woodbury, W. B. Riggan, J. P. Creason, and T. J. Mason. “Statistically adjusted estimates of geographic mortality profiles.” Journal of the National Cancer Institute 78, no. 5 (May 1987): 805–15.
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Manton, K. G., E. Stallard, and J. W. Vaupel. “Alternative models for the heterogeneity of mortality risks among the aged.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 81, no. 395 (September 1986): 635–44. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1986.10478316.Full Text
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Manton, K. G., E. Stallard, J. P. Creason, W. B. Riggan, and M. A. Woodbury. “Compartment model approaches for estimating the parameters of a chronic disease process under changing risk factor exposures.” Computers and Biomedical Research, an International Journal 19, no. 2 (April 1986): 151–69. https://doi.org/10.1016/0010-4809(86)90013-3.Full Text
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Manton, K. G., E. Stallard, M. A. Woodbury, and A. I. Yashin. “Applications of the grade of membership technique to event history analysis: Extensions to multivariate unobserved heterogeneity.” Mathematical Modelling 7, no. 9–12 (January 1, 1986): 1375–91. https://doi.org/10.1016/0270-0255(86)90087-4.Full Text
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Manton, K. G., E. Stallard, and M. A. Woodbury. “Chronic disease evolution and human aging: A general model for assessing the impact of chronic disease in human populations.” Mathematical Modelling 7, no. 5–8 (January 1, 1986): 1155–71. https://doi.org/10.1016/0270-0255(86)90155-7.Full Text
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Yashin, A. I., K. G. Manton, and E. Stallard. “Evaluating the effects of observed and unobserved diffusion processes in survival analysis of longitudinal data.” Mathematical Modelling 7, no. 9–12 (January 1, 1986): 1353–63. https://doi.org/10.1016/0270-0255(86)90085-0.Full Text
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Yashin, A. I., K. G. Manton, and E. Stallard. “Dependent competing risks: a stochastic process model.” Journal of Mathematical Biology 24, no. 2 (January 1986): 119–40. https://doi.org/10.1007/bf00275995.Full Text
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Manton, K. G., E. Stallard, J. P. Creason, and W. B. Riggan. “U.S. cancer mortality 1950-1978: a strategy for analyzing spatial and temporal patterns.” Environmental Health Perspectives 60 (May 1985): 369–80. https://doi.org/10.1289/ehp.8560369.Full Text
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Wing, S., K. G. Manton, E. Stallard, C. G. Hames, and H. A. Tryoler. “The black/white mortality crossover: investigation in a community-based study.” Journal of Gerontology 40, no. 1 (January 1985): 78–84. https://doi.org/10.1093/geronj/40.1.78.Full Text
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Woodbury, M. A., K. G. Manton, and E. Stallard. “Letters to the editor.” International Journal of Epidemiology 12, no. 1 (March 1, 1983): 115–17. https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/12.1.115.Full Text
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Manton, K. G., E. Stallard, and H. D. Tolley. “The Economic Impact of Health Policy Interventions.” Risk Analysis 3, no. 4 (January 1, 1983): 265–75. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1983.tb01395.x.Full Text
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Manton, K. G., and E. Stallard. “Temporal trends in U. S. multiple cause of death mortality data: 1968 to 1977.” Demography 19, no. 4 (November 1982): 527–47. https://doi.org/10.2307/2061017.Full Text
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Manton, K. G., and E. Stallard. “A population-based model of respiratory cancer incidence, progression, diagnosis, treatment, and mortality.” Computers and Biomedical Research, an International Journal 15, no. 4 (August 1982): 342–60. https://doi.org/10.1016/0010-4809(82)90003-9.Full Text
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Manton, K. G., and E. Stallard. “The use of mortality time series data to produce hypothetical morbidity distributions and projects mortality trends.” Demography 19, no. 2 (May 1982): 223–40. https://doi.org/10.2307/2061192.Full Text
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Manton, K. G., E. Stallard, and W. Riggan. “Strategies for analysing ecological health data: models of the biological risk of individuals.” Statistics in Medicine 1, no. 2 (April 1982): 163–81. https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.4780010209.Full Text
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Manton, K. G., and E. Stallard. “A cohort analysis of U.S. stomach cancer mortality 1950-1977.” International Journal of Epidemiology 11, no. 1 (March 1982): 49–61. https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/11.1.49.Full Text
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Manton, K. G., and E. Stallard. “Bioactuarial models of national mortality time series data.” Health Care Financing Review 3, no. 3 (March 1982): 89–106.
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Woodbury, M. A., K. G. Manton, and E. Stallard. “A dynamic analysis of chronic disease development: a study of sex specific changes in coronary heart disease incidence and risk factors in Framingham.” International Journal of Epidemiology 10, no. 4 (December 1981): 355–66. https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/10.4.355.Full Text
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Manton, K. G., E. Stallard, and J. W. Vaupel. “Methods for comparing the mortality experience of heterogeneous populations.” Demography 18, no. 3 (August 1981): 389–410. https://doi.org/10.2307/2061005.Full Text
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Woodbury, M. A., K. G. Manton, and E. Stallard. “Longitudinal models for chronic disease risk: an evaluation of logistic multiple regression and alternatives.” International Journal of Epidemiology 10, no. 2 (June 1981): 187–97. https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/10.2.187.Full Text
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Manton, K. G., M. A. Woodbury, and E. Stallard. “A variance components approach to categorical data models with heterogeneous cell populations: analysis of spatial gradients in lung cancer mortality rates in North Carolina counties.” Biometrics 37, no. 2 (June 1981): 259–69. https://doi.org/10.2307/2530416.Full Text
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Manton, K. G., and E. Stallard. “Methods for the analysis of mortality risks across heterogeneous small populations: examination of space-time gradients in cancer mortality in North Carolina counties 1970-75.” Demography 18, no. 2 (May 1981): 217–30. https://doi.org/10.2307/2061094.Full Text
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Manton, K. G., and E. Stallard. “Methods for evaluating the heterogeneity of aging processes in human populations using vital statistics data: explaining the black/white mortality crossover by a model of mortality selection.” Human Biology 53, no. 1 (February 1981): 47–67.
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Manton, K. G., C. H. Patrick, and E. Stallard. “Mortality model based on delays in progression of chronic diseases: alternative to cause elimination model.” Public Health Reports (Washington, D.C. : 1974) 95, no. 6 (November 1980): 580–88.
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Manton, K. G., and E. Stallard. “A stochastic compartment model representation of chronic disease dependence: techniques for evaluating parameters of partially unobserved age inhomogeneous stochastic processes.” Theoretical Population Biology 18, no. 1 (August 1980): 57–75. https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-5809(80)90040-4.Full Text
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Manton, K. G., C. H. Patrick, and E. Stallard. “Population impact of mortality reduction: the effects of elimination of major causes of death on the 'saved' population.” International Journal of Epidemiology 9, no. 2 (June 1980): 111–20. https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/9.2.111.Full Text
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Manton, K. G., and E. Stallard. “Mortality of the chronically impaired.” Demography 17, no. 2 (May 1980): 189–206. https://doi.org/10.2307/2061059.Full Text
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Manton, K. G., E. Stallard, and S. S. Poss. “Estimates of U.S. multiple cause life tables.” Demography 17, no. 1 (February 1980): 85–102. https://doi.org/10.2307/2060965.Full Text
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Manton, K. G., and E. Stallard. “A two-disease model of female breast cancer: mortality in 1969 among white females in the United States.” Journal of the National Cancer Institute 64, no. 1 (January 1980): 9–16.
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Manton, K. G., E. Stallard, D. Burdick, and H. D. Tolley. “A stochastic compartment model of stomach cancer with correlated waiting time distributions.” International Journal of Epidemiology 8, no. 3 (September 1979): 283–91. https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/8.3.283.Full Text
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Woodbury, M. A., K. G. Manton, and E. Stallard. “Longitudinal analysis of the dynamics and risk of coronary heart disease in the Framingham Study.” Biometrics 35, no. 3 (September 1979): 575–85. https://doi.org/10.2307/2530248.Full Text
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Manton, K. G., and E. Stallard. “Maximum likelihood estimation of a stochastic compartment model of cancer latency: lung cancer mortality among white females in the U.S.” Computers and Biomedical Research, an International Journal 12, no. 4 (August 1979): 313–25. https://doi.org/10.1016/0010-4809(79)90043-0.Full Text
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Vaupel, J. W., K. G. Manton, and E. Stallard. “The impact of heterogeneity in individual frailty on the dynamics of mortality.” Demography 16, no. 3 (August 1979): 439–54. https://doi.org/10.2307/2061224.Full Text
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Manton, K. G., M. A. Woodbury, and E. Stallard. “Analysis of the components of CHD risk in the Framingham study: new multivariate procedures for the analysis of chronic disease development.” Computers and Biomedical Research, an International Journal 12, no. 2 (April 1979): 109–23. https://doi.org/10.1016/0010-4809(79)90009-0.Full Text
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Tolley, H. D., D. Burdick, K. G. Manton, and E. Stallard. “Compartment model approach to the estimation of tumor incidence and growth: investigation of a model of cancer latency.” Biometrics 34, no. 3 (September 1978): 377–89. https://doi.org/10.2307/2530600.Full Text
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Book Sections
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Stallard, E. “Long Term Care for Aging Populations.” In International Encyclopedia of Public Health, 447–58, 2016. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-803678-5.00256-3.Full Text
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Yashin, A. I., and E. Stallard. “Mortality, Biodemography of.” In International Encyclopedia of the Social & Behavioral Sciences: Second Edition, 844–47, 2015. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-08-097086-8.31042-X.Full Text
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Wieland, D., B. Kinosian, and E. Stallard. “Toward medicaid capitation of the program of all-inclusive care for the elderly [PACE] using grade-of-membership methods.” In Advances in Sociology Research, 15:157–81, 2014.
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Conference Papers
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Manton, K. G., K. C. Land, and E. Stallard. “Human aging and mortality.” In Constructal Theory of Social Dynamics, 183–96, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-47681-0_10.Full Text
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Stallard, P. J. E., J. M. Robinson, and R. K. W. Yee. “Incidence and continuance for noninstitutional long-term care.” In Record Society of Actuaries, Vols 21, Nos 3a and 3b, edited by R. A. Pryor, G. A. Flatto, D. Jarrett, and D. Monaghan, 21:557–91. SOC ACTUARIES, 1996.Link to Item
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