Scholars@Duke
Patrick J. Eric Stallard

Patrick J. Eric Stallard

Research Professor in the Social Science Research Institute
Social Science Research Institute
eric.stallard@duke.edu
Duke Box 90408, Durham, NC 27708-0408
2024 W. Main St., Erwin Mill Building, Room A102H, Durham, NC 27705

Selected Publications

Genetics of Human Longevity From Incomplete Data: New Findings From the Long Life Family Study.

Journal Article The journals of gerontology. Series A, Biological sciences and medical sciences · October 2018 The special design of the Long Life Family Study provides a unique opportunity to investigate the genetics of human longevity by analyzing data on exceptional lifespans in families. In this article, we performed two series of genome wide association studie ... Full text Cite

Hidden heterogeneity in Alzheimer's disease: Insights from genetic association studies and other analyses.

Journal Article Experimental gerontology · July 2018 Despite evident success in clarifying many important features of Alzheimer's disease (AD) the efficient methods of its prevention and treatment are not yet available. The reasons are likely to be the fact that AD is a multifactorial and heterogeneous healt ... Full text Cite

Time Trends in the Prevalence of Neurocognitive Disorders and Cognitive Impairment in the United States: The Effects of Disease Severity and Improved Ascertainment.

Journal Article J Alzheimers Dis · 2018 BACKGROUND: Trends in the prevalence of cognitive impairment (CI) based on cognitive assessment instruments are often inconsistent with those of neurocognitive disorders (ND) based on Medicare claims records. OBJECTIVE: We hypothesized that improved ascert ... Full text Link to item Cite

Personalized predictive modeling for patients with Alzheimer's disease using an extension of Sullivan's life table model.

Journal Article Alzheimer's research & therapy · September 2017 BackgroundAlzheimer's disease (AD) progression varies substantially among patients, hindering calculation of residual total life expectancy (TLE) and its decomposition into disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) and disabled life expectancy (DLE) ... Full text Cite

Uncoupling associations of risk alleles with endophenotypes and phenotypes: insights from the ApoB locus and heart-related traits.

Journal Article Aging cell · February 2017 Traditionally, genomewide association studies (GWAS) have emphasized the benefits of large samples in the analyses of age-related traits rather than their specific properties. We adopted a realistic concept of genetic susceptibility to inherently heterogen ... Full text Open Access Cite

stpm: an R package for stochastic process model.

Journal Article BMC bioinformatics · February 2017 BackgroundThe Stochastic Process Model (SPM) represents a general framework for modeling the joint evolution of repeatedly measured variables and time-to-event outcomes observed in longitudinal studies, i.e., SPM relates the stochastic dynamics of ... Full text Open Access Cite

The Survival of Spouses Marrying Into Longevity-Enriched Families.

Journal Article The journals of gerontology. Series A, Biological sciences and medical sciences · January 2017 BackgroundStudies of longevity-enriched families are an important tool to gain insight into the mechanisms of exceptionally long and healthy lives. In the Long Life Family Study, the spouses of the members of the longevity-enriched families are of ... Full text Open Access Cite

Long Term Care for Aging Populations

Chapter · October 6, 2016 Long-term care (LTC) includes a broad array of services provided to disabled persons at home, in nursing homes, and in assisted-living facilities. Information on demographic and health characteristics of the population receiving LTC services derives from s ... Full text Cite

Explicating heterogeneity of complex traits has strong potential for improving GWAS efficiency.

Journal Article Scientific reports · October 2016 Common strategy of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) relying on large samples faces difficulties, which raise concerns that GWAS have exhausted their potential, particularly for complex traits. Here, we examine the efficiency of the traditional sample ... Full text Open Access Cite

Compression of Morbidity and Mortality: New Perspectives

Journal Article North American Actuarial Journal · October 1, 2016 Compression of morbidity is a reduction over time in the total lifetime days of chronic disability, reflecting a balance between (1) morbidity incidence rates and (2) case-continuance rates, generated by case-fatality and case-recovery rates. Chronic disab ... Full text Open Access Cite

Puzzling role of genetic risk factors in human longevity: "risk alleles" as pro-longevity variants.

Journal Article Biogerontology · February 2016 Complex diseases are major contributors to human mortality in old age. Paradoxically, many genetic variants that have been associated with increased risks of such diseases are found in genomes of long-lived people, and do not seem to compromise longevity. ... Full text Open Access Cite

How the effects of aging and stresses of life are integrated in mortality rates: insights for genetic studies of human health and longevity.

Journal Article Biogerontology · February 2016 Increasing proportions of elderly individuals in developed countries combined with substantial increases in related medical expenditures make the improvement of the health of the elderly a high priority today. If the process of aging by individuals is a ma ... Full text Open Access Cite

Pure and Confounded Effects of Causal SNPs on Longevity: Insights for Proper Interpretation of Research Findings in GWAS of Populations with Different Genetic Structures.

Journal Article Frontiers in genetics · January 2016 This paper shows that the effects of causal SNPs on lifespan, estimated through GWAS, may be confounded and the genetic structure of the study population may be responsible for this effect. Simulation experiments show that levels of linkage disequilibrium ... Full text Open Access Cite

Unmet Need for ADL Assistance Is Associated With Mortality Among Older Adults With Mild Disability.

Journal Article The journals of gerontology. Series A, Biological sciences and medical sciences · September 2015 BackgroundUnmet need for assistance with activities of daily living (ADLs) disability is associated with increased risk for future hospitalization. To further explore the association between unmet ADL need and future health outcomes, we examined t ... Full text Open Access Cite

Trade-offs in the effects of the apolipoprotein E polymorphism on risks of diseases of the heart, cancer, and neurodegenerative disorders: insights on mechanisms from the Long Life Family Study.

Journal Article Rejuvenation research · April 2015 The lack of evolutionary established mechanisms linking genes to age-related traits makes the problem of genetic susceptibility to health span inherently complex. One complicating factor is genetic trade-off. Here we focused on long-living participants of ... Full text Open Access Cite

Mortality, Biodemography of

Chapter · March 26, 2015 The biodemography of mortality aims to explain observed age patterns and time trends in mortality rates from the biological point of view. It integrates knowledge about biological factors and mechanisms affecting mortality rates with demographic informatio ... Full text Cite

Genetics of aging, health, and survival: dynamic regulation of human longevity related traits.

Journal Article Frontiers in genetics · January 2015 BackgroundThe roles of genetic factors in human longevity would be better understood if one can use more efficient methods in genetic analyses and investigate pleiotropic effects of genetic variants on aging and health related traits.Data and ... Full text Open Access Cite

Birth Cohort, Age, and Sex Strongly Modulate Effects of Lipid Risk Alleles Identified in Genome-Wide Association Studies.

Journal Article PloS one · January 2015 Insights into genetic origin of diseases and related traits could substantially impact strategies for improving human health. The results of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) are often positioned as discoveries of unconditional risk alleles of complex ... Full text Open Access Cite

Toward medicaid capitation of the program of all-inclusive care for the elderly [PACE] using grade-of-membership methods

Chapter · July 1, 2014 Delivering long-term services and supports [LTSS] to the dually eligible (Medicaid and Medicare) aged and disabled population is an expensive proposition for Medicaid programs and the country. States have begun a massive "rebalancing" of LTSS to serve this ... Cite

Age, gender, and cancer but not neurodegenerative and cardiovascular diseases strongly modulate systemic effect of the Apolipoprotein E4 allele on lifespan.

Journal Article PLoS genetics · January 2014 Enduring interest in the Apolipoprotein E (ApoE) polymorphism is ensured by its evolutionary-driven uniqueness in humans and its prominent role in geriatrics and gerontology. We use large samples of longitudinally followed populations from the Framingham H ... Full text Open Access Cite

Age, Gender, and Cancer but Not Neurodegenerative and Cardiovascular Diseases Strongly Modulate Systemic Effect of the Apolipoprotein E4 Allele on Lifespan

Journal Article Plos Genetics · January 1, 2014 Enduring interest in the Apolipoprotein E (ApoE) polymorphism is ensured by its evolutionary-driven uniqueness in humans and its prominent role in geriatrics and gerontology. We use large samples of longitudinally followed populations from the Framingham H ... Full text Cite

A new algorithm for predicting time to disease endpoints in Alzheimer's disease patients.

Journal Article Journal of Alzheimer's disease : JAD · January 2014 BackgroundThe ability to predict the length of time to death and institutionalization has strong implications for Alzheimer's disease patients and caregivers, health policy, economics, and the design of intervention studies.ObjectiveTo de ... Full text Open Access Cite

Biogenetic mechanisms predisposing to complex phenotypes in parents may function differently in their children.

Journal Article J Gerontol A Biol Sci Med Sci · July 2013 This study focuses on the participants of the Long Life Family Study to elucidate whether biogenetic mechanisms underlying relationships among heritable complex phenotypes in parents function in the same way for the same phenotypes in their children. Our r ... Full text Open Access Link to item Cite

Hospital readmission among older adults who return home with unmet need for ADL disability.

Journal Article The Gerontologist · June 2013 PurposeThis study determined whether returning to the community from a recent hospitalization with unmet activities of daily living (ADL) need was associated with probability of readmission.MethodsA total of 584 respondents to the 1994, 1 ... Full text Cite

The role of lipid-related genes, aging-related processes, and environment in healthspan.

Journal Article Aging cell · April 2013 The inherent complexity of aging-related traits can temper progress in unraveling the genetic origins of healthspan. We focus on two generations in the Framingham Heart Study, the original (FHS) and offspring (FHSO) cohorts, to determine whether aging-rela ... Full text Open Access Cite

How lifespan associated genes modulate aging changes: lessons from analysis of longitudinal data.

Journal Article Frontiers in genetics · January 2013 Background and objectiveThe influence of genes on human lifespan is mediated by biological processes that characterize body's functioning. The age trajectories of these processes contain important information about mechanisms linking aging, health ... Full text Open Access Cite

Does Medicaid pay more to a program of all-inclusive care for the elderly (PACE) than for fee-for-service long-term care?

Journal Article The journals of gerontology. Series A, Biological sciences and medical sciences · January 2013 BackgroundIn rebalancing from nursing homes (NHs), states are increasing access of NH-certified dually eligible (Medicare/Medicaid) patients to community waiver programs and Programs of All-Inclusive Care for the Elderly (PACE). Prior evaluations ... Full text Open Access Cite

How genes influence life span: the biodemography of human survival.

Journal Article Rejuvenation research · August 2012 BackgroundIn genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of human life span, none of the genetic variants has reached the level of genome-wide statistical significance. The roles of such variants in life span regulation remain unclear.Data and meth ... Full text Open Access Cite

Modeling longitudinal data on health aging and life span

Journal Article Physics of Life Reviews · June 1, 2012 We address comments from the three discussants of our paper, paying particular attention to the properties of our model likely to be of interest in new applications to complex dynamic systems. © 2012 Elsevier B.V. ... Full text Open Access Cite

The quadratic hazard model for analyzing longitudinal data on aging, health, and the life span.

Journal Article Physics of life reviews · June 2012 A better understanding of processes and mechanisms linking human aging with changes in health status and survival requires methods capable of analyzing new data that take into account knowledge about these processes accumulated in the field. In this paper, ... Full text Open Access Cite

Insufficient help for activity of daily living disabilities and risk of all-cause hospitalization.

Journal Article Journal of the American Geriatrics Society · May 2012 ObjectivesTo determine whether insufficient help for activity of daily living (ADL) disability, a potentially modifiable condition, significantly increases disabled older adults' risk of future hospital admissions.DesignProspective study. ... Full text Cite

Longevity risk in fair valuing level 3 assets in securitised portfolios

Journal Article Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Issues and Practice · October 1, 2011 Fair value accounting aims to establish a three-level hierarchy that distinguishes (1) readily observable measurement inputs from (2) less readily observable measurement inputs and (3) unobservable measurement inputs. Level 3 longevity valued assets will p ... Full text Cite

Estimates of the Incidence, Prevalence, Duration, Intensity, and Cost of Chronic Disability Among the U.S. Elderly

Journal Article North American Actuarial Journal · January 1, 2011 The objective of this paper is to estimate the burden of chronic disability on the U.S. elderly population, using unisex and sex-specific measures of long-term care (LTC) service use, intensity, and costs. Multistate life-table analysis was performed of ad ... Full text Cite

Estimation and validation of a multiattribute model of Alzheimer disease progression.

Journal Article Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · November 2010 ObjectivesTo estimate and validate a multiattribute model of the clinical course of Alzheimer disease (AD) from mild AD to death in a high-quality prospective cohort study, and to estimate the impact of hypothetical modifications to AD progression ... Full text Open Access Cite

Long term care for aging populations

Journal Article · December 1, 2008 Long-term care (LTC) includes a broad array of services provided to disabled persons at home, in nursing homes, and in assisted-living facilities. Information on demographic and health characteristics of the population receiving LTC services derives from s ... Full text Cite

Trajectories of Morbidity, Disability, and Mortality among the U.S. Elderly Population: Evidence from the 1984–1999 NLTCS

Journal Article North American Actuarial Journal · July 1, 2007 This article employs a longitudinal form of the Grade of Membership (GoM) model to specify and estimate a multivariate model of the trajectories of morbidity, disability, and mortality among longitudinally followed elderly respondents to the National Long- ... Full text Cite

Projected use of long-term-care services by enrolled Veterans.

Journal Article The Gerontologist · June 2007 PurposeThe purpose of this article is to describe the projected use for long-term-care services through 2012.Design and methodsWe constructed a static-component projection model using age, function, and other covariates. We obtained enrol ... Full text Cite

Human aging and mortality

Conference Constructal Theory of Social Dynamics · January 1, 2007 Full text Cite

Demographic issues in longevity risk analysis

Journal Article Journal of Risk and Insurance · December 1, 2006 Fundamental to the modeling of longevity risk is the specification of the assumptions used in demographic forecasting models that are designed to project past experience into future years, with or without modifications based on expert opinion about influen ... Full text Cite

Endothelial progenitor cell therapy for atherosclerosis: the philosopher's stone for an aging population?

Journal Article Sci Aging Knowledge Environ · June 22, 2005 Much of the increased risk for atherosclerosis progression with age may be a result of age-related declines in the capacity of precursor cells to repair damage in the arterial endothelium. To estimate the impact of progenitor cell therapy for atheroscleros ... Full text Link to item Cite

Computing time-varying sex-age-specific rates of marriage/union formation and dissolution in family household projection or simulation

Journal Article Demographic Research · December 3, 2004 This article presents two procedures that are useful in both macro and micro projection/simulation models concerning marriage/union formation and dissolution. One is for computing time-varying sex-age-specific rates that are consistent with independently p ... Full text Cite

Underlying and Multiple Case Mortality Advanced Ages: United States 1980-1998

Journal Article North American Actuarial Journal · July 1, 2002 This paper evaluates changes in cause-specific mortality for the general noninsured U.S. elderly population aged 65 years and older by sex and five-year age groups over the calendar years 1980, 1990, and 1998 for 14 leading causes of death coded according ... Full text Cite

Product liability forecasting for asbestos-related personal injury claims: a multidisciplinary approach.

Journal Article Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences · December 2001 This paper focuses on three aspects of forecasting models for asbestos-related disease/injuries relating to the Manville asbestos case: (1) The structure of forecasting models for asbestos-related personal injuries. (2) The epidemiologic evidence supportin ... Full text Cite

Predicting 10-year care requirements for older people with suspected Alzheimer's disease.

Journal Article Journal of the American Geriatrics Society · June 2000 ObjectiveTo describe the types and costs of care received for 10 years after the identification of an older person with suspected Alzheimer's disease (AD) by using data from 3254 patients with suspected AD who participated in the National Long Ter ... Full text Cite

“combining life table data”, gilbert w. Fellingham and h. Dennis tolley, july, 1999

Journal Article North American Actuarial Journal · July 1, 1999 Full text Cite

Forecasting methods for HIV/AIDS and aging

Journal Article Research on Aging · November 1, 1998 Recent treatment advances suggest that AIDS may be changing from a rapidly lethal, acute disease into a chronic disease process with lengthy periods of remission. Stochastic compartment models can describe AIDS progression, remission, and overall survival. ... Full text Cite

Economic Effects of Reducing Disability

Journal Article American Economic Review · May 1, 1998 Cite

The dynamics of dimensions of age-related disability 1982 to 1994 in the U.S. elderly population.

Journal Article The journals of gerontology. Series A, Biological sciences and medical sciences · January 1998 Declines in chronic disability were observed in the National Long Term Care Survey (NLTCS) 1982 to 1994. We analyzed the 1982, 1984, 1989, and 1994 NLTCS to identify the dimensions of chronic disability from multivariate analyses of a rich battery of measu ... Full text Cite

Education-specific estimates of life expectancy and age-specific disability in the U.S. elderly population: 1982 to 1991.

Journal Article Journal of aging and health · November 1997 The authors used mortality data for 1982 to 1991 linked to survey records from the 1982, 1984, and 1989 National Long Term Care Surveys to calculate gender differences over age in mortality and functional status for high (8 or more years of schooling) and ... Full text Cite

Monitoring changes in the health of the U.S. elderly population: correlates with biomedical research and clinical innovations.

Journal Article FASEB journal : official publication of the Federation of American Societies for Experimental Biology · October 1997 Full text Cite

Chronic disability trends in elderly United States populations: 1982-1994.

Journal Article Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · March 1997 Statistically significant declines in chronic disability prevalence rates were observed in the elderly United States population between the 1982 and 1989 National Long Term Care Surveys (NLTCS). The 1994 NLTCS was used to investigate whether disability rat ... Full text Cite

Changes in the age dependence of mortality and disability: cohort and other determinants.

Journal Article Demography · February 1997 Though the general trend in the United States has been toward increasing life expectancy both at birth and at age 65, the temporal rate of change in life expectancy since 1900 has been variable and often restricted to specific population groups. There have ... Full text Cite

Longevity in the united states: age and sex-specific evidence on life span limits from mortality patterns 1960-1990.

Journal Article The journals of gerontology. Series A, Biological sciences and medical sciences · September 1996 Determining the biological limits to human longevity is more difficult than for most other species because humans are long-lived. Consequently, mortality data, such as from the U.S. vital statistics system, which have been available for a long time (relati ... Full text Cite

Changes in health, mortality, and disability and their impact on long-term care needs.

Journal Article Journal of aging & social policy · January 1996 The need for long-term care is driven both by the growth of the elderly population and changes in the age relations of morbidity, disability, and mortality. Data show these relations changed in the U.S. elderly population from 1982 to 1989. Chronic disabil ... Full text Cite

Incidence and continuance for noninstitutional long-term care

Conference RECORD - SOCIETY OF ACTUARIES, VOLS 21, NOS 3A AND 3B · January 1, 1996 Link to item Cite

Sex differences in human mortality and aging at late ages: the effect of mortality selection and state dynamics.

Journal Article The Gerontologist · October 1995 Models of gender differences in human mortality and aging depend on assumptions about temporal rates of physiological change. Simple models like the Gompertz fail to describe the mortality of either males or females at late ages. This suggests a need for b ... Full text Cite

Changes in morbidity and chronic disability in the U.S. elderly population: evidence from the 1982, 1984, and 1989 National Long Term Care Surveys.

Journal Article The journals of gerontology. Series B, Psychological sciences and social sciences · July 1995 We examined changes in the reported prevalence of 16 medical conditions in the U.S. population age 65 and above using data from the 1982, 1984, and 1989 National Long Term Care Surveys. Changes in those disease prevalence rates were examined both as observ ... Full text Cite

The effects of health histories on stochastic process models of aging and mortality.

Journal Article Journal of mathematical biology · January 1995 A model of human health history and aging, based on a multivariate stochastic process with both continuous diffusion and discrete jump components, is presented. Discrete changes generate non-Gaussian diffusion with time varying continuous state distributio ... Full text Cite

Time-varying covariates in models of human mortality and aging: multidimensional generalizations of the Gompertz.

Journal Article Journal of gerontology · July 1994 Models of mortality and aging depend on assumptions about physiological change even if they are not made explicit. Standard models, like the Gompertz, often fail to describe mortality at extreme ages, suggesting a need for biologically more detailed and fl ... Full text Cite

Home health and skilled nursing facility use: 1982-90.

Journal Article Health care financing review · January 1994 In this article, analyses are made of home health and skilled nursing facility (SNF) use for the period 1982-90 using Medicare records linked to data on community and institutional residents from the National Long-Term Care Surveys (NLTCSs) of 1982, 1984, ... Cite

Forecasts of active life expectancy: policy and fiscal implications.

Journal Article Journal of gerontology · September 1993 Age-related changes in functional status can be summarized by active life expectancy (ALE) measures. ALE is useful in assessing efforts to improve function and in determining a population's service needs. ALE disaggregates total life expectancy (TLE) into ... Full text Cite

Use of Medicare services before and after introduction of the prospective payment system.

Journal Article Health services research · August 1993 ObjectiveThe case mix-adjusted pattern of use of health care services, especially posthospital care, is compared before and after the introduction of Medicare's Prospective Payment System (PPS).Data sourcesThe 1982 and 1984 National Long ... Cite

Estimates of change in chronic disability and institutional incidence and prevalence rates in the U.S. elderly population from the 1982, 1984, and 1989 National Long Term Care Survey.

Journal Article Journal of gerontology · July 1993 The U.S. elderly (65+) and oldest-old (85+) populations are growing rapidly which, combined with their high per capita acute and long-term care needs, will increase total U.S. health care needs. Also important in determining needs is how health and functio ... Full text Cite

Changes in the use of personal assistance and special equipment from 1982 to 1989: results from the 1982 and 1989 NLTCS.

Journal Article The Gerontologist · April 1993 Analysis of data from the 1982, 1984 and 1989 National Long-term Care Surveys suggests that long-term care use is changing. Between 1982 and 1989, equipment use by persons with light physical impairment, or to supplement personal assistance for the severel ... Full text Cite

Projecting the future size and health status of the U.S. elderly population.

Journal Article International journal of forecasting · November 1992 "A projection model based on a multivariate continuous state, stochastic process is presented. The model allows multiple time-varying covariates to be used so parameters can be estimated from time series information on health changes and mortality, and th ... Full text Cite

Demographics (1950-1987) of breast cancer in birth cohorts of older women.

Journal Article Journal of gerontology · November 1992 The effects of screening on breast cancer mortality, incidence, and prevalence were investigated using a general forecasting and simulation model. First, a biologically motivated model of disease incidence and mortality was fit to the breast cancer mortali ... Cite

Risk factor dynamics, mortality and life expectancy differences between eastern and western Finland: the Finnish Cohorts of the Seven Countries Study.

Journal Article International journal of epidemiology · April 1992 Prior studies have not accounted for male mortality being higher in east than west Finland. Efforts to identify the mechanisms producing higher mortality in the east, due primarily to cardiovascular diseases (CVD), initially focused on a search for new ris ... Full text Cite

Analysis of underwriting factors for AAPCC (adjusted average per capita cost).

Journal Article Health care financing review · January 1992 The adjusted average per capita cost (AAPCC) formula is used to determine payment to health maintenance organizations (HMOs) by Medicare. The four original underwriting factors (i.e., age, sex, institutional status, and welfare status) for the AAPCC were c ... Cite

Assessment of spatial variation of risks in small populations.

Journal Article Environmental health perspectives · December 1991 Often environmental hazards are assessed by examining the spatial variation of disease-specific mortality or morbidity rates. These rates, when estimated for small local populations, can have a high degree of random variation or uncertainty associated with ... Full text Cite

Statistical and measurement issues in assessing the welfare status of aged individuals and populations

Journal Article Journal of Econometrics · October 11, 1991 Univariate [Blackorby and Donaldson (1978), Bourguignon (1979), Shorrocks (1980, 1984), Foster (1983)] and multidimensional [Kolm (1973, 1977), Atkinson and Bourguignon (1982), Ram (1982), Massoumi (1986, 1989)] measures of social welfare and economic ineq ... Full text Cite

Analyses of black and white differentials in the age trajectory of mortality in two closed cohort studies.

Journal Article Statistics in medicine · July 1991 We examine the relationship of age to mortality in blacks and whites in two cohort studies, the 20-year follow-up of the Evans County, Georgia. Study population and the 25-year follow-up of the Charleston Heart Study population. We conducted analyses with ... Full text Cite

Should the presence of carcinogens in breast milk discourage breast feeding?

Journal Article Regulatory toxicology and pharmacology : RTP · June 1991 Pollutant chemicals are commonly found in human milk at levels that would prevent its sale as a commercial food for infants. The chemicals found most commonly are dichlorodiphenyl-dichloroethene, polychlorinated biphenyls, dieldrin, chlordane, heptachlor, ... Full text Cite

Cross-sectional estimates of active life expectancy for the U.S. elderly and oldest-old populations.

Journal Article Journal of gerontology · May 1991 Estimates are made of active life expectancy for the U.S. elderly and oldest-old populations using data from the 1982 and 1984 National Long Term Care Surveys. In the calculation of active life expectancy a multivariate analysis of 27 measures of functioni ... Full text Cite

Empirical Bayes procedures for stabilizing maps of U.S. cancer mortality rates.

Journal Article Journal of the American Statistical Association · September 1989 "The geographic mapping of age-standardized, cause-specific death rates is a powerful tool for identifying possible etiologic factors, because the spatial distribution of mortality risks can be examined for correlations with the spatial distribution of dis ... Full text Cite

The propagation of uncertainty in human mortality processes operating in stochastic environments.

Journal Article Theoretical population biology · April 1989 This paper presents a model describing how the uncertainty due to influential exogenous processes combines with stochasticity intrinsic to physiological aging processes and propagates through time to generate uncertainty about the future physiological stat ... Full text Cite

Importance of electrocardiography for coronary risk factor surveys.

Journal Article Lancet (London, England) · September 1988 Full text Cite

Models of the interaction of mortality and the evolution of risk factor distribution: a general stochastic process formulation.

Journal Article Statistics in medicine · January 1988 Generally analyses of longitudinal studies of chronic disease risks do not directly model the change with time of risk factor values and the interactions of those changes with risk levels. Failure to account for such process characteristics can lead to inc ... Full text Cite

Statistically adjusted estimates of geographic mortality profiles.

Journal Article Journal of the National Cancer Institute · May 1987 The spatial variation of site-specific cancer mortality rates at the county or state economic area level can provide a) insights into possible etiologic factors and b) the basis for more detailed epidemiologic studies. One difficulty with such studies, esp ... Cite

Alternative models for the heterogeneity of mortality risks among the aged.

Journal Article Journal of the American Statistical Association · September 1986 The authors examine how sensitive the estimates of heterogeneity in the mortality risks in a population are to the choices of two types of function, "one describing the age-specific rate of increase of mortality risks for individuals and the other describi ... Full text Cite

Compartment model approaches for estimating the parameters of a chronic disease process under changing risk factor exposures.

Journal Article Computers and biomedical research, an international journal · April 1986 Compartment model approaches have been proposed for the analysis of the age incidence of specific types of cancer. These models represented the age increases in incidence as the result of a compound hazard function where individual level risks were describ ... Full text Cite

Chronic disease evolution and human aging: A general model for assessing the impact of chronic disease in human populations

Journal Article Mathematical Modelling · January 1, 1986 A general model of the effects of physiological aging changes and systematic selection due to death or to morbid changes in a human population is presented. Parameter estimation is conducted on large longitudinal data bases. Assuming the availability of su ... Full text Cite

Applications of the grade of membership technique to event history analysis: Extensions to multivariate unobserved heterogeneity

Journal Article Mathematical Modelling · January 1, 1986 Analyses of the event histories of social and service utilization processes are often difficult because of a lack of adequate theory to specify the distributional form of any latent heterogeneity [J. Heckman and B. Singer, The identifiability of the propor ... Full text Cite

Evaluating the effects of observed and unobserved diffusion processes in survival analysis of longitudinal data

Journal Article Mathematical Modelling · January 1, 1986 In biostatistical, epidemiological and demographic studies of human survival it is often necessary to consider the dynamics of physiological processes and their influences on observed mortality rates. The parameters of a stochastic covariate process can be ... Full text Cite

Dependent competing risks: a stochastic process model.

Journal Article Journal of mathematical biology · January 1986 Analyses of human mortality data classified according to cause of death frequently are based on competing risk theory. In particular, the times to death for different causes often are assumed to be independent. In this paper, a competing risk model with a ... Full text Cite

U.S. cancer mortality 1950-1978: a strategy for analyzing spatial and temporal patterns.

Journal Article Environmental health perspectives · May 1985 There are a number of technical and statistical problems in monitoring the temporal and spatial variation of local area death rates in the United States for evidence of systematically elevated risks. An analytic strategy is proposed to reduce one of the ma ... Full text Cite

The black/white mortality crossover: investigation in a community-based study.

Journal Article Journal of gerontology · January 1985 The black/white mortality crossover at about age 75, a result of lower white mortality rates at younger ages and lower black rates at the oldest ages, has been observed in U.S. vital statistics since 1900. Though a persistant observation in such data, its ... Full text Cite

Letters to the editor

Journal Article International Journal of Epidemiology · March 1, 1983 Full text Cite

The Economic Impact of Health Policy Interventions

Journal Article Risk Analysis · January 1, 1983 The rapid aging of the U.S. population, increases in the absolute prevalence of chronic diseases, and the associated rise in the proportion of the GNP expended on medical care all indicate the need for methods to accurately forecast future health care expe ... Full text Cite

Temporal trends in U. S. multiple cause of death mortality data: 1968 to 1977.

Journal Article Demography · November 1982 An analysis is made of the mortality trends over the period 1968 to 1977 indicated by two types of cause-specific mortality data. The first type of data is "underlying cause" of death data--the data heretofore used in national vital statistics reports on c ... Full text Cite

A population-based model of respiratory cancer incidence, progression, diagnosis, treatment, and mortality.

Journal Article Computers and biomedical research, an international journal · August 1982 Full text Cite

The use of mortality time series data to produce hypothetical morbidity distributions and projects mortality trends.

Journal Article Demography · May 1982 It is difficult to obtain direct empirical estimates of chronic disease prevalence in the U.S. population. The available estimates are usually derived from epidemiological studies of selected populations. In this paper we present strategies for estimating ... Full text Cite

Strategies for analysing ecological health data: models of the biological risk of individuals.

Journal Article Statistics in medicine · April 1982 Frequently, the analysis of environmental health hazards using ecological data does not involve explicit recognition of the difficulties in translating health effects expressed in the aggregate to the health risks of individuals. We discuss these difficult ... Full text Cite

A cohort analysis of U.S. stomach cancer mortality 1950-1977.

Journal Article International journal of epidemiology · March 1982 Models of human carcinogenesis, such as the multi-stage model of Armitage and Doll, are designed to explain the age increase in the incidence of cancers in individuals. As a consequence, analyses of population level age-specific death rates via such models ... Full text Cite

Bioactuarial models of national mortality time series data.

Journal Article Health care financing review · March 1982 The incidence and prevalence of chronic degenerative disease in America's elderly population are important determinants of the need for long-term care health services. Though a wide range of data on disease incidence and prevalence is available from a vari ... Cite

A dynamic analysis of chronic disease development: a study of sex specific changes in coronary heart disease incidence and risk factors in Framingham.

Journal Article International journal of epidemiology · December 1981 An analysis of sex differentials in the dynamics of coronary heart disease (CHD) in the Framingham study is conducted using a methodology designed process which aids in the interpretation of the longitudinal results. This methodology permits the analysis o ... Full text Cite

Methods for comparing the mortality experience of heterogeneous populations.

Journal Article Demography · August 1981 Methods are presented which produce Maximum Likelihood Estimates (MLE) of the degree of heterogeneity in individual mortality risks under a variety of assumptions about the age trajectory of those mortality risks. With these estimates of the degree of popu ... Full text Cite

A variance components approach to categorical data models with heterogeneous cell populations: analysis of spatial gradients in lung cancer mortality rates in North Carolina counties.

Journal Article Biometrics · June 1981 A mixed categorical-continuous variable model is proposed for the analysis of mortality rates. This model differs from other available models, such as weighted least squares and loglinear models, in that the within-cell populations are assumed to be hetero ... Full text Cite

Longitudinal models for chronic disease risk: an evaluation of logistic multiple regression and alternatives.

Journal Article International journal of epidemiology · June 1981 The logistic multiple regression model is often used in the analysis of the relation between chronic disease risk and selected risk factors in longitudinal data. Unfortunately, the logistic function has certain properties that make it inappropriate as a mo ... Full text Cite

Methods for the analysis of mortality risks across heterogeneous small populations: examination of space-time gradients in cancer mortality in North Carolina counties 1970-75.

Journal Article Demography · May 1981 A method of analyzing mortality rates in heterogeneous populations is presented. This method, appropriate for the investigation of mortality rates in small geographic areas (e.g., counties) where the forces of mobility operate to selectively "package" pers ... Full text Cite

Mortality model based on delays in progression of chronic diseases: alternative to cause elimination model.

Journal Article Public health reports (Washington, D.C. : 1974) · November 1980 For the analysis of the impact of major chronic diseases on a population, a life table model is proposed in which the age at death due to specific cause (chronic disease) is postponed. Even though many of the major causes of death related to intrinsic agin ... Cite

Population impact of mortality reduction: the effects of elimination of major causes of death on the 'saved' population.

Journal Article International journal of epidemiology · June 1980 In this paper we examine the effects on life expectancy of elimination of 4 major causes of death. Methodologically, we compare the results of cause elimination under assumptions of pattern of failure elimination and assumptions of underlying cause elimina ... Full text Cite

Mortality of the chronically impaired.

Journal Article Demography · May 1980 An analysis of the effects of diabetes and generalized atherosclerosis on death due to ischemic heart disease or stroke was conducted using multiple cause mortality statistics. Specifically, all U.S. deaths in 1969 were classified into two groups on the ba ... Full text Cite

Estimates of U.S. multiple cause life tables.

Journal Article Demography · February 1980 Cause elimination life tables estimated from multiple cause of death data for four race/sex groups are presented for the U.S. population in 1969. These "multiple cause" life tables are then compared to cause elimination life tables where the mortality risk ... Full text Cite

A two-disease model of female breast cancer: mortality in 1969 among white females in the United States.

Journal Article Journal of the National Cancer Institute · January 1980 A mathematical model of the age distribution of breast cancer mortality was developed on the basis of the two-disease theory of breast cancer incidence. The model included representations of the time from tumor initiation to death, the competing risk effec ... Full text Cite

A stochastic compartment model of stomach cancer with correlated waiting time distributions.

Journal Article International journal of epidemiology · September 1979 The incidence and growth rate of stomach cancer in the US population is modelled, for each sex, as a partially observed, discrete state stochastic process. Explicit evaluation of the transition rates between the states of the model is made possible by iden ... Full text Cite

Longitudinal analysis of the dynamics and risk of coronary heart disease in the Framingham Study.

Journal Article Biometrics · September 1979 Statistical methods designed specifically for the analysis of chronic disease incidence and progression in longitudinal studies are presented. These method model the risk of acute phases of chronic disease separately from the temporal change in risk variab ... Full text Cite

The impact of heterogeneity in individual frailty on the dynamics of mortality.

Journal Article Demography · August 1979 Life table methods are developed for populations whose members differ in their endowment for longevity. Unlike standard methods, which ignore such heterogeneity, these methods use different calculations to construct cohort, period, and individual life tabl ... Full text Cite

Compartment model approach to the estimation of tumor incidence and growth: investigation of a model of cancer latency.

Journal Article Biometrics · September 1978 Consideration is made of the problems involved in determining the effects of a chronic disease process, such as stomach cancer, on the observed mortality of the U.S. population. Specifically, since the time of initiation of tumor growth is unknown and the ... Full text Cite