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Fan Li

Professor of Statistical Science
Statistical Science
Box 90251, Durham, NC 27708-0251
122 Old Chem Bldg, Durham, NC 27708

Overview


My main research interest is causal inference and its applications to health, policy and social science. I also work on the interface between causal inference and machine learning. I have developed methods for propensity score, clinical trials, randomized experiments (e.g. A/B testing), difference-in-differences, regression discontinuity designs, representation learning. I also work on Bayesian analysis and statistical methods for missing data. I am serving as the editor for social science, biostatistics and policy for the journalĀ Annals of Applied Statistics.

Current Duke Appointments & Affiliations


Professor of Statistical Science · 2021 - Present Statistical Science, Trinity College of Arts & Sciences
Professor of Biostatistics & Bioinformatics · 2021 - Present Biostatistics & Bioinformatics, Division of Biostatistics, Biostatistics & Bioinformatics

Recent News Items


Published September 28, 2021
Fan Li: Using Math to Help Physicians Make Better COVID Treatment Decisions

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Recent Scholarly Works


Cardiovascular Multimorbidity and Associated Mortality Among Medicare Beneficiaries Dually Eligible for Medicaid.

Journal article J Am Heart Assoc · August 4, 2026 BACKGROUND: Patients dually eligible for Medicare and Medicaid have higher mortality rates and disparate outcomes for acute cardiovascular conditions compared with those eligible for Medicare alone. However, the association between dual eligibility, cardio ... Full text Link to item Cite

Leveraging external controls in clinical trials: estimands, estimation, assumptions.

Journal article Journal of biopharmaceutical statistics · June 2026 It is increasingly common to augment randomized controlled trial with external controls from observational data, to evaluate the treatment effect of an intervention. Traditional approaches to treatment effect estimation involve ambiguous estimands and unre ... Full text Cite

MULTIPLY ROBUST ESTIMATION FOR CAUSAL SURVIVAL ANALYSIS WITH TREATMENT NONCOMPLIANCE

Journal article Annals of Applied Statistics · March 1, 2026 Comparative effectiveness research frequently addresses a time-to-event outcome and can require unique considerations in the presence of treatment noncompliance. Motivated by the challenges in addressing noncompliance in the ADAPTABLE pragmatic clinical tr ... Full text Cite
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Recent Grants


Duke Ophthalmology Mentored Physician Scientist Program

Inst. Training Prgm or CMEMentor · Awarded by National Institutes of Health · 2026 - 2031

Deprescribing Decision-Making using Machine Learning Individualized Treatment Rules to Improve CNS Polypharmacy

ResearchCo Investigator · Awarded by National Institute on Aging · 2024 - 2029

Innovative Biostatistical Methods for Analysis and Assessment of Clinical Trials Augmented by Real World Data

ResearchCo Investigator · Awarded by Burroughs Wellcome Fund · 2021 - 2027

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Education


Johns Hopkins University · 2006 Ph.D.
Peking University (China) · 2001 B.S.

External Links


Personal site