Fan Li
Professor of Statistical Science
My main research interest is causal inference and its applications to health, policy and social science. I also work on the interface between causal inference and machine learning. I have developed methods for propensity score, clinical trials, randomized experiments (e.g. A/B testing), difference-in-differences, regression discontinuity designs, representation learning. I also work on Bayesian analysis and statistical methods for missing data. I am serving as the editor for social science, biostatistics and policy for the journal Annals of Applied Statistics.
Current Research Interests
My current research interests are four fold. First, I am developing statistical methods to incorporate causal inference techniques into the design and analysis of clinical trials or generally randomized experiments, e.g. constructing external controls of clinical trials from real world data, best practice of covariate adjustment in randomized trials. Second, I am exploring the interface between causal inference and machine learning, e.g. how to borrow insights from causal inference into fundamental problems in machine learning such as measuring feature importance. Third, I am investigating how to analyze natural experiments with complex data. Fourth, I am developing computational and software tools to bridge the theory and practice of causal inference (aka comparative effectiveness research).
Current Appointments & Affiliations
- Professor of Statistical Science, Statistical Science, Trinity College of Arts & Sciences 2021
- Professor of Biostatistics & Bioinformatics, Biostatistics & Bioinformatics, Basic Science Departments 2021
Contact Information
- 122 Old Chem Bldg, Durham, NC 27708
- Box 90251, Durham, NC 27708-0251
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fl35@duke.edu
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Personal site
- Background
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Education, Training, & Certifications
- Ph.D., Johns Hopkins University 2006
- B.S., Peking University (China) 2001
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Previous Appointments & Affiliations
- Associate Professor of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Biostatistics & Bioinformatics, Basic Science Departments 2017 - 2021
- Associate Professor of Statistical Science, Statistical Science, Trinity College of Arts & Sciences 2015 - 2021
- Assistant Professor of Statistical Science, Statistical Science, Trinity College of Arts & Sciences 2008 - 2015
- Recognition
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In the News
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SEP 28, 2021 Trinity College of Arts and Sciences
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- Expertise
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Subject Headings
- Research
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Selected Grants
- Cardioembolism as a Mechanism of Central Retinal Artery Occlusion awarded by National Institutes of Health 2022 - 2027
- Innovative Biostatistical Methods for Analysis and Assessment of Clinical Trials Augmented by Real World Data awarded by Burroughs Wellcome Fund 2021 - 2026
- New causal inference methods for cluster randomized trials with post-randomization selection awarded by Patient Centered Outcomes Research Institute 2020 - 2024
- Addressing Bias from Missing Data in EHR Based Studies of CVD awarded by National Institutes of Health 2018 - 2023
- The biodemography of early adversity: social behavioral processes in a wild animal model. awarded by National Institutes of Health 2018 - 2023
- Religion, Spirituality and CVD Risks: A Focus on African Americans awarded by National Institutes of Health 2017 - 2023
- A life course perspective on the effects of cumulative early adversity on health awarded by University of Notre Dame 2017 - 2023
- Prospective Multicenter Observational Cohort Study of Comparative Effectiveness of Disease-Modifying Treatments for Myasthenia Gravis (MG) awarded by Patient Centered Outcomes Research Institute 2017 - 2022
- Methods for the Design and Conduct of Subgroup Analysis in Observational Studies awarded by Patient Centered Outcomes Research Institute 2019 - 2022
- New weighting methods for causal inference awarded by National Science Foundation 2014 - 2017
- NCRN-MN:Triangle Census Research Network awarded by National Science Foundation 2011 - 2016
- Collaborative Research: Statistical Modeling and Inference for High-dimensional Multi-Subject Neuroimaging Data awarded by National Science Foundation 2012 - 2015
- Bayesian multivariate analysis for causal inference with intermediate variable awarded by National Science Foundation 2012 - 2015
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External Relationships
- North Carolina Department of Justice
- Publications & Artistic Works
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Selected Publications
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Academic Articles
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Lange, Elizabeth C., Shuxi Zeng, Fernando A. Campos, Fan Li, Jenny Tung, Elizabeth A. Archie, and Susan C. Alberts. “Early life adversity and adult social relationships have independent effects on survival in a wild primate.” Science Advances 9, no. 20 (May 2023): eade7172. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.ade7172.Full Text
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Li, Fan, Peng Ding, and Fabrizia Mealli. “Bayesian causal inference: a critical review.” Philosophical Transactions. Series A, Mathematical, Physical, and Engineering Sciences 381, no. 2247 (May 2023): 20220153. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2022.0153.Full Text
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Papadogeorgou, Georgia, Kosuke Imai, Jason Lyall, and Fan Li. “Causal Inference with Spatio-Temporal Data: Estimating the Effects of Airstrikes on Insurgent Violence in Iraq.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B: Statistical Methodology 84, no. 5 (November 1, 2022): 1969–99. https://doi.org/10.1111/rssb.12548.Full Text
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Mäkinen, T., F. Li, A. Mercatanti, and A. Silvestrini. “Causal analysis of central bank holdings of corporate bonds under interference.” Economic Modelling 113 (August 1, 2022). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2022.105873.Full Text
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Cheng, Chao, Fan Li, Laine E. Thomas, and Fan Frank Li. “Addressing Extreme Propensity Scores in Estimating Counterfactual Survival Functions via the Overlap Weights.” Am J Epidemiol 191, no. 6 (May 20, 2022): 1140–51. https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwac043.Full Text Link to Item
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Zhou, T., G. Tong, F. Li, and L. E. Thomas. “PSweight: An R Package for Propensity ScoreWeighting Analysis.” R Journal 14, no. 1 (March 1, 2022): 282–99. https://doi.org/10.32614/RJ-2022-011.Full Text
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Li, Fan, Zizhong Tian, Jennifer Bobb, and Georgia Papadogeorgou. “Clarifying selection bias in cluster randomized trials.” Clinical Trials (London, England) 19, no. 1 (February 2022): 33–41. https://doi.org/10.1177/17407745211056875.Full Text
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Li, F., and Z. Tian. “A note on identification of causal effects in cluster randomized trials with post-randomization selection bias.” Communications in Statistics Theory and Methods, January 1, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1080/03610926.2022.2116281.Full Text
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Wang, Zhenhua, Olanrewaju Akande, Jason Poulos, and Fan Li. “Are deep learning models superior for missing data imputation in surveys? Evidence from an empirical comparison.” Survey Methodology 48, no. 2 (2022): 375–99.Link to Item
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Zeng, S., E. C. Lange, E. A. Archie, F. A. Campos, S. C. Alberts, and F. Li. “A Causal Mediation Model for Longitudinal Mediators and Survival Outcomes with an Application to Animal Behavior.” Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics, January 1, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13253-022-00490-6.Full Text
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Yang, Siyun, Fan Li, and Laine E. Thomas. “Covariate adjustment in subgroup analyses of randomized clinical trials: A propensity score approach.” Clin Trials 18, no. 5 (October 2021): 570–81. https://doi.org/10.1177/17407745211028588.Full Text Link to Item
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Yang, Siyun, Elizabeth Lorenzi, Georgia Papadogeorgou, Daniel M. Wojdyla, Fan Li, and Laine E. Thomas. “Propensity score weighting for causal subgroup analysis.” Stat Med 40, no. 19 (August 30, 2021): 4294–4309. https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.9029.Full Text Link to Item
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Assaad, Serge, Shuxi Zeng, Henry Pfister, Fan Li, and Lawrence Carin. “Hölder Bounds for Sensitivity Analysis in Causal Reasoning,” July 9, 2021.Open Access Copy Link to Item
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Zeng, S., S. Rosenbaum, S. C. Alberts, E. A. Archie, and F. Li. “Causal mediation analysis for sparse and irregular longitudinal data.” Annals of Applied Statistics 15, no. 2 (June 1, 2021): 747–67. https://doi.org/10.1214/20-AOAS1427.Full Text
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Zeng, Shuxi, Fan Li, and Rui Wang. “Propensity score weighting for covariate adjustment in randomized clinical trials.” Statistics in Medicine 40, no. 4 (February 2021): 842–58. https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.8805.Full Text
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Li, Fan, and Laine E. Thomas. “RE:"ADDRESSING EXTREME PROPENSITY SCORES VIA THE OVERLAP WEIGHTS".” Am J Epidemiol 190, no. 1 (January 4, 2021): 189–90. https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwaa229.Full Text Link to Item
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Li, F., A. Mercatanti, T. Mäkinen, and A. Silvestrini. “A regression discontinuity design for ordinal running variables: Evaluating central bank purchases of corporate bonds.” Annals of Applied Statistics 15, no. 1 (January 1, 2021): 304–22. https://doi.org/10.1214/20-AOAS1396.Full Text
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Assaad, Serge, Nikhil Mehta, Shuxi Zeng, Ricardo Henao, Chenyang Tao, Fan Li, Shounak Datta, and Lawrence Carin. “Counterfactual Representation Learning with Balancing Weights.” 24th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics (Aistats) 130 (2021).Link to Item
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Mäkinen, Taneli, Andrea Mercatanti, Andrea Silvestrini, and Fan Li. “Effects of Eligibility for Central Bank Purchases on Corporate Bond Spreads.” Bank of Italy Temi Di Discussione (Working Paper), no. 1300 (November 11, 2020).
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Zhang, Yi-Na, Yun Chen, Ying Wang, Fan Li, Michelle Pender, Na Wang, Fei Yan, Xiao-Hua Ying, Sheng-Lan Tang, and Chao-Wei Fu. “Reduction in healthcare services during the COVID-19 pandemic in China.” Bmj Glob Health 5, no. 11 (November 2020). https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjgh-2020-003421.Full Text Link to Item
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Zeng, S., F. Li, and P. Ding. “Is being an only child harmful to psychological health?: evidence from an instrumental variable analysis of China's one-child policy.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A: Statistics in Society 183, no. 4 (October 1, 2020): 1615–35. https://doi.org/10.1111/rssa.12595.Full Text
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Lu, Danni, Feng Guo, and Fan Li. “Evaluating the causal effects of cellphone distraction on crash risk using propensity score methods.” Accident; Analysis and Prevention 143 (August 2020): 105579. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2020.105579.Full Text
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Rosenbaum, Stacy, Shuxi Zeng, Fernando A. Campos, Laurence R. Gesquiere, Jeanne Altmann, Susan C. Alberts, Fan Li, and Elizabeth A. Archie. “Social bonds do not mediate the relationship between early adversity and adult glucocorticoids in wild baboons.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 117, no. 33 (August 2020): 20052–62. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2004524117.Full Text
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Thomas, Laine E., Fan Li, and Michael J. Pencina. “Overlap Weighting: A Propensity Score Method That Mimics Attributes of a Randomized Clinical Trial.” Jama 323, no. 23 (June 16, 2020): 2417–18. https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2020.7819.Full Text Link to Item
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Dong, Jing, Junni L. Zhang, Shuxi Zeng, and Fan Li. “Subgroup balancing propensity score.” Statistical Methods in Medical Research 29, no. 3 (March 2020): 659–76. https://doi.org/10.1177/0962280219870836.Full Text
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Thomas, Laine, Fan Li, and Michael Pencina. “Using Propensity Score Methods to Create Target Populations in Observational Clinical Research.” Jama 323, no. 5 (February 4, 2020): 466–67. https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2019.21558.Full Text Link to Item
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Ding, P., and F. Li. “A Bracketing Relationship between Difference-in-Differences and Lagged-Dependent-Variable Adjustment.” Political Analysis 27, no. 4 (October 1, 2019): 605–15. https://doi.org/10.1017/pan.2019.25.Full Text
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Wang, F., J. Wang, A. E. Gelfand, and F. Li. “Disease Mapping With Generative Models.” American Statistician 73, no. 3 (July 3, 2019): 213–23. https://doi.org/10.1080/00031305.2017.1392358.Full Text
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Papadogeorgou, G., and F. Li. “Discussion of “Penalized Spline of Propensity Methods for Treatment Comparison”.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 114, no. 525 (January 2, 2019): 32–35. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.2018.1543120.Full Text
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Li, Fan, and Laine E. Thomas. “Addressing Extreme Propensity Scores via the Overlap Weights.” Am J Epidemiol 188, no. 1 (January 1, 2019): 250–57. https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwy201.Full Text Link to Item
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Arnold, Suzanne V., David J. Cohen, David Dai, Philip G. Jones, Fan Li, Laine Thomas, Suzanne J. Baron, et al. “Predicting Quality of Life at 1 Year After Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement in a Real-World Population.” Circ Cardiovasc Qual Outcomes 11, no. 10 (October 2018): e004693. https://doi.org/10.1161/CIRCOUTCOMES.118.004693.Full Text Link to Item
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Kaufman, Brystana G., David Klemish, Cordt T. Kassner, Jerome P. Reiter, Fan Li, Matthew Harker, Emily C. O’Brien, Donald H. Taylor, and Nrupen A. Bhavsar. “Predicting Length of Hospice Stay: An Application of Quantile Regression.” J Palliat Med 21, no. 8 (August 2018): 1131–36. https://doi.org/10.1089/jpm.2018.0039.Full Text Link to Item
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Ding, P., and F. Li. “Causal inference: A missing data perspective.” Statistical Science 33, no. 2 (May 1, 2018): 214–37. https://doi.org/10.1214/18-STS645.Full Text
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Li, F., K. L. Morgan, and A. M. Zaslavsky. “Balancing Covariates via Propensity Score Weighting.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 113, no. 521 (January 2, 2018): 390–400. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.2016.1260466.Full Text
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Wang, Feifei, Jian Wang, Alan Gelfand, and Fan Li. “Accommodating the ecological fallacy in disease mapping in the absence of individual exposures.” Statistics in Medicine 36, no. 30 (December 2017): 4930–42. https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.7494.Full Text Open Access Copy
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Mercatanti, A., and F. Li. “Do debit cards decrease cash demand?: causal inference and sensitivity analysis using principal stratification.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C: Applied Statistics 66, no. 4 (August 1, 2017): 759–76. https://doi.org/10.1111/rssc.12193.Full Text
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Brennan, J Matthew, Laine Thomas, David J. Cohen, David Shahian, Alice Wang, Michael J. Mack, David R. Holmes, et al. “Transcatheter Versus Surgical Aortic Valve Replacement: Propensity-Matched Comparison.” J Am Coll Cardiol 70, no. 4 (July 25, 2017): 439–50. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jacc.2017.05.060.Full Text Link to Item
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Akande, O., F. Li, and J. Reiter. “An Empirical Comparison of Multiple Imputation Methods for Categorical Data.” American Statistician 71, no. 2 (April 3, 2017): 162–70. https://doi.org/10.1080/00031305.2016.1277158.Full Text Open Access Copy
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Li, F., A. Mattei, and F. Mealli. “Evaluating the causal effect of university grants on student dropout: Evidence from a regression discontinuity design using principal stratification.” Annals of Applied Statistics 9, no. 4 (December 1, 2015): 1906–31. https://doi.org/10.1214/15-AOAS881.Full Text
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Li, F., T. Zhang, Q. Wang, M. Z. Gonzalez, E. L. Maresh, and J. A. Coan. “Spatial Bayesian variable selection and grouping for high-dimensional scalar-on-image regression.” Annals of Applied Statistics 9, no. 2 (June 1, 2015): 687–713. https://doi.org/10.1214/15-AOAS818.Full Text
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Zhang, Tingting, Jingwei Wu, Fan Li, Brian Caffo, and Dana Boatman-Reich. “A Dynamic Directional Model for Effective Brain Connectivity using Electrocorticographic (ECoG) Time Series.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 110, no. 509 (March 2015): 93–106. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.2014.988213.Full Text Open Access Copy
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Mercatanti, A., F. Li, and F. Mealli. “Improving inference of Gaussian mixtures using auxiliary variables.” Statistical Analysis and Data Mining 8, no. 1 (February 1, 2015): 34–48. https://doi.org/10.1002/sam.11256.Full Text
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Schliep, E. M., T. Q. Dong, A. E. Gelfand, and F. Li. “Modeling individual tree growth by fusing diameter tape and increment core data.” Environmetrics 25, no. 8 (December 1, 2014): 610–20. https://doi.org/10.1002/env.2324.Full Text
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Mercatanti, A., and F. Li. “Do debit cards increase household spending? Evidence from a semiparametric causal analysis of a survey.” Annals of Applied Statistics 8, no. 4 (December 1, 2014): 2485–2508. https://doi.org/10.1214/14-AOAS784.Full Text Open Access Copy
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Zhang, Tingting, Fan Li, Marlen Z. Gonzalez, Erin L. Maresh, and James A. Coan. “A semi-parametric nonlinear model for event-related fMRI.” Neuroimage 97 (August 2014): 178–87. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.neuroimage.2014.04.017.Full Text
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Li, F., M. Baccini, F. Mealli, E. R. Zell, C. E. Frangakis, and D. B. Rubin. “Multiple Imputation by Ordered Monotone Blocks With Application to the Anthrax Vaccine Research Program.” Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics 23, no. 3 (July 3, 2014): 877–92. https://doi.org/10.1080/10618600.2013.826583.Full Text
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Li, F., and F. Mealli. “A conversation with Donald B. Rubin.” Statistical Science 29, no. 3 (January 1, 2014): 439–57. https://doi.org/10.1214/14-STS489.Full Text
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Liu, F., S. Chakraborty, F. Li, Y. Liu, and A. C. Lozano. “Bayesian regularization via graph Laplacian.” Bayesian Analysis 9, no. 2 (January 1, 2014): 449–74. https://doi.org/10.1214/14-BA860.Full Text
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Mattei, A., F. Li, and F. Mealli. “Exploiting multiple outcomes in Bayesian principal stratification analysis with application to the evaluation of a job training program.” Annals of Applied Statistics 7, no. 4 (December 1, 2013): 2336–60. https://doi.org/10.1214/13-AOAS674.Full Text
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Li, Fan, Alan M. Zaslavsky, and Mary Beth Landrum. “Propensity score weighting with multilevel data.” Statistics in Medicine 32, no. 19 (August 2013): 3373–87. https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.5786.Full Text
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Zhang, Tingting, Fan Li, Lane Beckes, and James A. Coan. “A semi-parametric model of the hemodynamic response for multi-subject fMRI data.” Neuroimage 75 (July 2013): 136–45. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.neuroimage.2013.02.048.Full Text
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Zhang, Tingting, Fan Li, Lane Beckes, Casey Brown, and James A. Coan. “Nonparametric inference of the hemodynamic response using multi-subject fMRI data.” Neuroimage 63, no. 3 (November 2012): 1754–65. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.neuroimage.2012.08.014.Full Text
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Schwartz, Scott, Fan Li, and Jerome P. Reiter. “Sensitivity analysis for unmeasured confounding in principal stratification settings with binary variables.” Statistics in Medicine 31, no. 10 (May 2012): 949–62. https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.4472.Full Text
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Schwartz, S. L., F. Li, and F. Mealli. “A bayesian semiparametric approach to intermediate variables in causal inference.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 106, no. 496 (December 1, 2011): 1331–44. https://doi.org/10.1198/jasa.2011.ap10425.Full Text
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Go, Vivian F., Constantine Frangakis, Le Van Nam, Teerada Sripaipan, Anna Bergenstrom, Fan Li, Carl Latkin, David D. Celentano, and Vu Minh Quan. “Characteristics of high-risk HIV-positive IDUs in Vietnam: implications for future interventions.” Substance Use & Misuse 46, no. 4 (January 2011): 381–89. https://doi.org/10.3109/10826084.2010.505147.Full Text
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Schwartz, S. L., F. Li, and J. P. Reiter. “Sensitivity analysis for unmeasured confounding in principal stratification.” Statistics in Medicine in press (2011).
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Li, Fan, and Alan M. Zaslavsky. “Using a short screening scale for small-area estimation of mental illness prevalence for schools.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 105, no. 492 (December 2010): 1323–32. https://doi.org/10.1198/jasa.2010.ap09185.Full Text
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Li, F., and N. R. Zhang. “Bayesian variable selection in structured high-dimensional covariate spaces with applications in genomics.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 105, no. 491 (September 1, 2010): 1202–14. https://doi.org/10.1198/jasa.2010.tm08177.Full Text Open Access Copy
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Li, Fan, Jennifer Greif Green, Ronald C. Kessler, and Alan M. Zaslavsky. “Estimating prevalence of serious emotional disturbance in schools using a brief screening scale.” International Journal of Methods in Psychiatric Research 19 Suppl 1 (June 2010): 88–98. https://doi.org/10.1002/mpr.315.Full Text
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Li, F., and A. M. Zaslavsky. “Using a short screening scale for small-area estimation of prevalence of serious emotional disturbance for schools.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 105, no. 492 (2010): 1323–32.
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Baccini, M., S. Cook, C. E. Frangakis, F. Li, F. Mealli, D. B. Rubin, and E. R. Zell. “Multiple imputation by ordered monotone blocks.” Chance 23, no. 2 (2010): 16–23.
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Li, Fan, and Constantine E. Frangakis. “Polydesigns and causal inference.” Biometrics 62, no. 2 (June 2006): 343–51. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1541-0420.2005.00494.x.Full Text
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Li, Fan, and Constantine E. Frangakis. “Designs in partially controlled studies: messages from a review.” Statistical Methods in Medical Research 14, no. 4 (August 2005): 417–31. https://doi.org/10.1191/0962280205sm405oa.Full Text
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Book Sections
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Zhang, Tingting, Haipeng Shen, and Fan Li. “Linear and Nonlinear Models for fMRI Time Series Analysis.” In HANDBOOK OF NEUROIMAGING DATA ANALYSIS, 309–33, 2017.Link to Item
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Conference Papers
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Assaad, Serge, Shuxi Zeng, Chenyang Tao, Shounak Datta, Nikhil Mehta, Ricardo Henao, Fan Li, and Lawrence Carin. “Counterfactual Representation Learning with Balancing Weights.” In Aistats, edited by Arindam Banerjee and Kenji Fukumizu, 130:1972–80. PMLR, 2021.
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Lu, D., C. Tao, J. Chen, F. Li, F. Guo, and L. Carin. “Reconsidering generative objectives for counterfactual reasoning.” In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vol. 2020-December, 2020.
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Preprints
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Lange, Elizabeth, Shuxi Zeng, Fernando Campos, Fan Li, Jenny Tung, Elizabeth Archie, and Susan Alberts. “Early life adversity and adult social relationships have independent effects on survival in a wild animal model of aging.” BioRxiv, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.09.06.506810.Full Text
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- Teaching & Mentoring
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Recent Courses
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