Skip to main content

Yuliya Krauchanka

Assistant Professor of Surgery
Surgery, Surgical Sciences
DUMC Box#3850, Durham, NC 27710
MSRB1, Research Drive, Suite 401, Durham, NC 27710

Selected Publications


Decomposition of Heart Failure Prevalence and Mortality Among Older Adults in the United States: Medicare-Based Partitioning Analysis.

Journal Article JMIR Public Health Surveill · November 20, 2024 BACKGROUND: Heart failure (HF) is a challenging clinical and public health problem characterized by high prevalence and mortality among US older adults, along with a recent decline in HF prevalence and increase in mortality. The changes of prevalence can b ... Full text Link to item Cite

Forecasting prevalence and mortality of Alzheimer's disease using the partitioning models.

Journal Article Exp Gerontol · April 2023 OBJECTIVES: Health forecasting is an important aspect of ensuring that the health system can effectively respond to the changing epidemiological environment. Common models for forecasting Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (AD/ADRD) are based on sim ... Full text Link to item Cite

Underlying mechanisms of change in cancer prevalence in older U.S. adults: contributions of incidence, survival, and ascertainment at early stages.

Journal Article Cancer Causes Control · September 2022 PURPOSE: To quantitatively evaluate contributions of trends in incidence, relative survival, and stage at diagnosis to the dynamics in the prevalence of major cancers (lung, prostate, colon, breast, urinary bladder, ovaries, stomach, pancreas, esophagus, k ... Full text Open Access Link to item Cite

Vulnerability to Hypertension Is a Major Determinant of Racial Disparities in Alzheimer's Disease Risk.

Journal Article Am J Hypertens · August 1, 2022 BACKGROUND: Higher incidence levels of Alzheimer's disease (AD) in Black Americans are well documented. However, quantitative explanations of this disparity in terms of risk-factor diseases acting through well-defined pathways are lacking. METHODS: We appl ... Full text Open Access Link to item Cite

Extended anesthesia exposure for abdominal and pelvic procedures in older adults with colorectal cancer: Associations with chart dementia diagnoses.

Journal Article Exp Gerontol · July 2022 BACKGROUND: We hypothesized that cumulative anesthesia exposure over the course of routine treatment of colorectal cancer in older adults can increase long-term risk of Alzheimer's disease (AD), Alzheimer's disease-related dementias (ADRD), and other chron ... Full text Link to item Cite

Epidemiology of geographic disparities in heart failure among US older adults: a Medicare-based analysis.

Journal Article BMC Public Health · July 1, 2022 BACKGROUND: There are prominent geographic disparities in the life expectancy (LE) of older US adults between the states with the highest (leading states) and lowest (lagging states) LE and their causes remain poorly understood. Heart failure (HF) has been ... Full text Open Access Link to item Cite

Chemotherapy and the Risk of Alzheimer's Disease in Colorectal Cancer Survivors: Evidence From the Medicare System.

Journal Article JCO Oncol Pract · November 2021 PURPOSE: Evidence on the nature of the relationship between patients receiving chemotherapy as an essential part of guideline-concordant cancer care and the onset of Alzheimer's Disease (AD) and other adverse cognitive outcomes has been mixed. Biological m ... Full text Link to item Cite

Geographic disparities in mortality from Alzheimer's disease and related dementias.

Journal Article J Am Geriatr Soc · August 2021 OBJECTIVES: The regions with highest and lowest Alzheimer's disease (AD) mortality across the United States at state/county levels were identified and their contribution to the differences in total mortality rates between these regions was evaluated. The d ... Full text Link to item Cite

Analysis of Time Trends in Alzheimer's Disease and Related Dementias Using Partitioning Approach.

Journal Article J Alzheimers Dis · 2021 BACKGROUND: Understanding the dynamics of epidemiologic trends in Alzheimer's disease (AD) and related dementias (ADRD) and their epidemiologic causes is vital to providing important insights into reducing the burden associated with these conditions. OBJEC ... Full text Link to item Cite

Exposure to low-dose ambient fine particulate matter PM2.5 and Alzheimer's disease, non-Alzheimer's dementia, and Parkinson's disease in North Carolina.

Journal Article PLoS One · 2021 Alzheimer's disease (AD), non-AD dementia, and Parkinson's disease (PD) are increasingly common in older adults, yet all risk factors for their onset are not fully understood. Consequently, environmental exposures, including air pollution, have been hypoth ... Full text Link to item Cite

Uterine Cancer Mortality in White and African American Females in Southeastern North Carolina.

Journal Article J Environ Public Health · 2020 The residents of southeastern North Carolina (NC) are exposed to multiple socioeconomic and environmental risk factors and have higher mortality rates for a number of diseases. Uterine cancer mortality is known to vary dramatically by race, so we analyzed ... Full text Link to item Cite

Partitioning of time trends in prevalence and mortality of lung cancer.

Journal Article Stat Med · July 30, 2019 BACKGROUND: Time trends of lung cancer prevalence and mortality are the result of three competing processes: changes in the incidence rate, stage-specific survival, and ascertainment at early stages. Improvements in these measures act concordantly to impro ... Full text Link to item Cite

A forecasting model of disease prevalence based on the McKendrick-von Foerster equation.

Journal Article Math Biosci · May 2019 A new model for disease prevalence based on the analytical solutions of McKendric-von Foerster's partial differential equations is developed. Derivation of the model and methods to cross check obtained results are explicitly demonstrated. Obtained equation ... Full text Link to item Cite

Time trends in the prevalence of cancer and non-cancer diseases among older U.S. adults: Medicare-based analysis.

Journal Article Exp Gerontol · September 2018 Longer lifespan is accompanied by a larger number of chronic diseases among older adults. Because of a growing proportion of older adults in the U.S., this brings the problem of age-related morbidity to the forefront as a major contributor to rising medica ... Full text Link to item Cite

Identifying the causes of the changes in the prevalence patterns of diabetes in older U.S. adults: A new trend partitioning approach.

Journal Article J Diabetes Complications · April 2018 AIMS: To identify how efforts to control the diabetes epidemic and the resulting changes in diabetes mellitus, type II (T2D) incidence and survival have affected the time-trend of T2D prevalence. METHODS: A newly developed method of trend decomposition was ... Full text Link to item Cite

Mortality and Macrovascular Risk in Elderly With Hypertension and Diabetes: Effect of Intensive Drug Therapy.

Journal Article Am J Hypertens · January 12, 2018 BACKGROUND: This study identifies the effect of intensive drug therapy (IDT) in individuals age 65+ with diabetes (type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D)) and hypertension on all-cause death, congestive heart failure (CHF), hospitalization for myocardial infarctio ... Full text Link to item Cite

Time Trends in the Prevalence of Neurocognitive Disorders and Cognitive Impairment in the United States: The Effects of Disease Severity and Improved Ascertainment.

Journal Article J Alzheimers Dis · 2018 BACKGROUND: Trends in the prevalence of cognitive impairment (CI) based on cognitive assessment instruments are often inconsistent with those of neurocognitive disorders (ND) based on Medicare claims records. OBJECTIVE: We hypothesized that improved ascert ... Full text Link to item Cite

Mortality and Health Outcomes in North Carolina Communities Located in Close Proximity to Hog Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations.

Journal Article N C Med J · 2018 BACKGROUND Life expectancy in southeastern North Carolina communities located in an area with multiple concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFOs) after adjusting for socioeconomic factors remains low. We hypothesized that poor health outcomes in this r ... Full text Link to item Cite

The Health Impacts of Environmental Policy: The North Carolina Clean Smokestacks Act.

Journal Article N C Med J · 2018 The North Carolina Clean Smokestacks Act and related policies led to substantial decreases of emitted air pollutants from coal-fired power plants. Improved air quality was associated with statewide improvements in respiratory, cardiovascular, and cerebrova ... Full text Link to item Cite

The Impact of Coal-Powered Electrical Plants and Coal Ash Impoundments on the Health of Residential Communities.

Journal Article N C Med J · 2018 BACKGROUND In North Carolina, coal-burning power plants remain the major source of electrical production. Coal burning generates coal ash that is stored in landfills and slurry ponds that are often located near residential communities, signifying high pote ... Full text Link to item Cite

Theory of partitioning of disease prevalence and mortality in observational data.

Journal Article Theor Popul Biol · April 2017 In this study, we present a new theory of partitioning of disease prevalence and incidence-based mortality and demonstrate how this theory practically works for analyses of Medicare data. In the theory, the prevalence of a disease and incidence-based morta ... Full text Open Access Link to item Cite

Diet and Cancer

Chapter · October 6, 2016 Dietary factors have been estimated to account for about 35% of cancer deaths in the United States, although there is considerable uncertainty about which constituents of diet contribute to this risk. Recent meta-analyses suggest an association of colorect ... Full text Cite

Aging: Nutrition and the Older Adults

Chapter · October 6, 2016 Aging and nutrition interact: aging influences nutrient requirements, their absorption, and metabolism; and diet is a powerful risk factor for aging-associated diseases. Nutritional requirements in older adults differ from those in younger adults due to ag ... Full text Cite

A Systematic Review of Conceptual Frameworks of Medical Complexity and New Model Development.

Journal Article J Gen Intern Med · March 2016 BACKGROUND: Patient complexity is often operationalized by counting multiple chronic conditions (MCC) without considering contextual factors that can affect patient risk for adverse outcomes. OBJECTIVE: Our objective was to develop a conceptual model of co ... Full text Open Access Link to item Cite

Dynamic Characteristics of Aging-Related Changes as Predictors of Longevity and Healthy Lifespan

Chapter · January 1, 2016 It is well known from epidemiological research that values of indices describing physiological states at a given age may influence human morbidity and mortality risks. Studies of the connections between aging and life span suggest that the dynamic properti ... Full text Cite

Linear Latent Structure Analysis: Modeling High-Dimensional Survey Data

Chapter · January 1, 2016 The formulation of the recently developed Linear Latent Structures (LLS) analysis, its statistical properties, the algorithm for parameter estimation and its implementation, simulation studies, and application of LLS model to the National Long Term Care Su ... Full text Cite

Health Effects and Medicare Trajectories: Population-Based Analysis of Morbidity and Mortality Patterns

Chapter · January 1, 2016 The tremendous research potential of U.S. Medicare data for evaluation of current, and forecasting of future, patterns of aging-related diseases among older U.S. adults remains largely unexplored. In this chapter, we present and discuss the results of a se ... Full text Cite

Medical Cost Trajectories and Onset of Age-Associated Diseases

Chapter · January 1, 2016 Aging-related deterioration in health impacts an important economic component: the medical costs associated with disease diagnosis and treatment. Because almost all U.S. residents aged 65+ years old are covered by the Medicare system, prediction of future ... Full text Cite

Chemical compounds from anthropogenic environment and immune evasion mechanisms: potential interactions.

Journal Article Carcinogenesis · June 2015 An increasing number of studies suggest an important role of host immunity as a barrier to tumor formation and progression. Complex mechanisms and multiple pathways are involved in evading innate and adaptive immune responses, with a broad spectrum of chem ... Full text Link to item Cite

Assessing the carcinogenic potential of low-dose exposures to chemical mixtures in the environment: the challenge ahead.

Journal Article Carcinogenesis · June 2015 Lifestyle factors are responsible for a considerable portion of cancer incidence worldwide, but credible estimates from the World Health Organization and the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) suggest that the fraction of cancers attributab ... Full text Link to item Cite

Cardiovascular comorbidities and survival of lung cancer patients: Medicare data based analysis.

Journal Article Lung Cancer · April 2015 OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the role of cardiovascular disease (CVD) comorbidity in survival of patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). MATERIALS AND METHODS: The impact of seven CVDs (at the time of NSCLC diagnosis and during subsequent follow-up) o ... Full text Open Access Link to item Cite

Causal effects of time-dependent treatments in older patients with non-small cell lung cancer.

Journal Article PLoS One · 2015 BACKGROUND: Treatment selection for elderly patients with lung cancer must balance the benefits of curative/life-prolonging therapy and the risks of increased mortality due to comorbidities. Lung cancer trials generally exclude patients with comorbidities ... Full text Open Access Link to item Cite

Aging: Nutrition and the Older Adults

Chapter · December 15, 2014 © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.Aging and nutrition interact: aging influences nutrient requirements, their absorption and metabolism, and diet is a powerful risk factor for aging-associated diseases. Nutritional requirements in older adults diffe ... Full text Cite

Fluoride exposure from groundwater as reflected by urinary fluoride and children's dental fluorosis in the Main Ethiopian Rift Valley.

Journal Article Sci Total Environ · October 15, 2014 This cross-sectional study explores the relationships between children's F(-) exposure from drinking groundwater and urinary F(-) concentrations, combined with dental fluorosis (DF) in the Main Ethiopian Rift (MER) Valley. We examined the DF prevalence and ... Full text Link to item Cite

The effect of non-fluoride factors on risk of dental fluorosis: evidence from rural populations of the Main Ethiopian Rift.

Journal Article Sci Total Environ · August 1, 2014 Elevated level of fluoride (F(-)) in drinking water is a well-recognized risk factor of dental fluorosis (DF). While considering optimization of region-specific standards for F(-), it is reasonable, however, to consider how local diet, water sourcing pract ... Full text Open Access Link to item Cite

A review of the health impacts of barium from natural and anthropogenic exposure.

Journal Article Environ Geochem Health · August 2014 There is an increasing public awareness of the relatively new and expanded industrial barium uses which are potential sources of human exposure (e.g., a shale gas development that causes an increased awareness of environmental exposures to barium). However ... Full text Link to item Cite

Long-term dynamics of death rates of emphysema, asthma, and pneumonia and improving air quality.

Journal Article Int J Chron Obstruct Pulmon Dis · 2014 BACKGROUND: The respiratory tract is a major target of exposure to air pollutants, and respiratory diseases are associated with both short- and long-term exposures. We hypothesized that improved air quality in North Carolina was associated with reduced rat ... Full text Open Access Link to item Cite

Arsenic exposure of rural populations from the Rift Valley of Ethiopia as monitored by keratin in toenails.

Journal Article J Expo Sci Environ Epidemiol · 2014 Arsenic (As) contamination of drinking water is a worldwide phenomenon whose effect among vulnerable and rural communities in the Rift Valley of Ethiopia in eastern Africa is not well studied. This study examines As exposure and bioaccumulation from drinki ... Full text Link to item Cite

Morbidity risks among older adults with pre-existing age-related diseases.

Journal Article Exp Gerontol · December 2013 Multi-morbidity is common among older adults; however, for many aging-related diseases there is no information for U.S. elderly population on how earlier-manifested disease affects the risk of another disease manifested later during patient's lifetime. Qua ... Full text Open Access Link to item Cite

Predictive model of the treatment effect for patients with major depressive disorder

Journal Article 2013 ACM Conference on Bioinformatics Computational Biology and Biomedical Informatics ACM Bcb 2013 · November 28, 2013 The model to evaluate and predict the effectiveness of treatment of the Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) was developed and estimated using MindLinc data. The clinical global impression (CGI) scale with seven categories was used to measure the patient's stat ... Full text Open Access Cite

Recovery and survival from aging-associated diseases.

Journal Article Exp Gerontol · August 2013 OBJECTIVES: Considering disease incidence to be a main contributor to healthy lifespan of the US elderly population may lead to erroneous conclusions when recovery/long-term remission factors are underestimated. Using two Medicare-based population datasets ... Full text Open Access Link to item Cite

Time trends of incidence of age-associated diseases in the US elderly population: Medicare-based analysis.

Journal Article Age Ageing · July 2013 OBJECTIVES: time trends of age-adjusted incidence rates of 19 ageing-related diseases were evaluated for 1992-2005 period with the National Long Term Care Survey and the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End RESULTS Registry data both linked to Medicare data ... Full text Open Access Link to item Cite

Circulatory Diseases in the U.S. Elderly in the Linked National Long-Term Care Survey-Medicare Database: Population-Based Analysis of Incidence, Comorbidity, and Disability.

Journal Article Res Aging · July 2013 Incidence rates of acute coronary heart disease (ACHD; including myocardial infarction and angina pectoris), stroke, and heart failure (HF) were studied for their age, disability, and comorbidity patterns in the U.S. elderly population using the National L ... Full text Open Access Link to item Cite

Minimization of heatwave morbidity and mortality.

Journal Article Am J Prev Med · March 2013 Global climate change is projected to increase the frequency and duration of periods of extremely high temperatures. Both the general populace and public health authorities often underestimate the impact of high temperatures on human health. To highlight t ... Full text Link to item Cite

Groundwater quality and its health impact: An assessment of dental fluorosis in rural inhabitants of the Main Ethiopian Rift.

Journal Article Environ Int · August 2012 This study aims to assess the link between fluoride content in groundwater and its impact on dental health in rural communities of the Ethiopian Rift. A total of 148 water samples were collected from two drainage basins within the Main Ethiopian Rift (MER) ... Full text Link to item Cite

New stochastic carcinogenesis model with covariates: an approach involving intracellular barrier mechanisms.

Journal Article Math Biosci · March 2012 In this paper we present a new multiple-pathway stochastic model of carcinogenesis with potential of predicting individual incidence risks on the basis of biomedical measurements. The model incorporates the concept of intracellular barrier mechanisms in wh ... Full text Open Access Link to item Cite

Age patterns of incidence of geriatric disease in the U.S. elderly population: Medicare-based analysis.

Journal Article J Am Geriatr Soc · February 2012 OBJECTIVES: To use the Medicare Files of Service Use (MFSU) to evaluate patterns in the incidence of aging-related diseases in the U.S. elderly population. DESIGN: Age-specific incidence rates of 19 aging-related diseases were evaluated using the National ... Full text Open Access Link to item Cite

Transitional probability-based model for HPV clearance in HIV-1-positive adolescent females.

Journal Article PLoS One · 2012 BACKGROUND: HIV-1-positive patients clear the human papillomavirus (HPV) infection less frequently than HIV-1-negative. Datasets for estimating HPV clearance probability often have irregular measurements of HPV status and risk factors. A new transitional p ... Full text Open Access Link to item Cite

Evaluating the number of stages in development of squamous cell and adenocarcinomas across cancer sites using human population-based cancer modeling.

Journal Article PLoS One · 2012 BACKGROUND: Adenocarcinomas (ACs) and squamous cell carcinomas (SCCs) differ by clinical and molecular characteristics. We evaluated the characteristics of carcinogenesis by modeling the age patterns of incidence rates of ACs and SCCs of various organs to ... Full text Open Access Link to item Cite

Breast cancer as heterogeneous disease: contributing factors and carcinogenesis mechanisms.

Journal Article Breast Cancer Res Treat · July 2011 The observed bimodal patterns of breast cancer incidence in the U.S. suggested that breast cancer may be viewed as more than one biological entity. We studied the factors potentially contributing to this phenomenon, specifically focusing on how disease het ... Full text Open Access Link to item Cite

Medical cost trajectories and onsets of cancer and noncancer diseases in US elderly population.

Journal Article Comput Math Methods Med · 2011 Time trajectories of medical costs-associated with onset of twelve aging-related cancer and chronic noncancer diseases were analyzed using the National Long-Term Care Survey data linked to Medicare Service Use files. A special procedure for selecting indiv ... Full text Open Access Link to item Cite

Dynamic determinants of longevity and exceptional health.

Journal Article Curr Gerontol Geriatr Res · 2010 It is well known from epidemiology that values of indices describing physiological state in a given age may influence human morbidity and mortality risks. Studies of connection between aging and life span suggest a possibility that dynamic properties of ag ... Full text Link to item Cite

Survey of the potential environmental and health impacts in the immediate aftermath of the coal ash spill in Kingston, Tennessee.

Journal Article Environ Sci Technol · August 15, 2009 An investigation of the potential environmental and health impacts in the immediate aftermath of one of the largest coal ash spills in U.S. history at the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) Kingston coal-burning power plant has revealed three major findings. ... Full text Open Access Link to item Cite

Diet and cancer

Journal Article · December 1, 2008 Dietary factors have been estimated to account for about 35% of cancer deaths in the United States, although there is considerable uncertainty about which constituents of diet contribute to this risk. Recent meta-analyses suggest an association of colorect ... Full text Cite

Nutrition and the elderly

Journal Article · December 1, 2008 Aging and nutrition interact: Aging influences nutrient requirements, their absorption and metabolism, and diet is a powerful risk factor for aging-associated diseases. Nutritional requirements in the elderly differ from those in adults due to aging-associ ... Full text Cite

Health-based population forecasting: effects of smoking on mortality and fertility.

Journal Article Risk Anal · April 2007 A microsimulation model, allowing one to forecast short- and long-term population changes conditional on the prevalence of a risk factor in a population, is presented. In this model, population changes result from the aggregation of changes in individual e ... Full text Link to item Cite

The risk of radiation-induced cerebrovascular disease in Chernobyl emergency workers.

Journal Article Health Phys · March 2006 The paper deals with estimating radiation risks of non-cancer diseases of the circulatory system among the Chernobyl emergency workers based on data from the Russian National Medical and Dosimetric Registry. The results for the cohort of 61,017 people obse ... Full text Link to item Cite

Population models for the health effects of ionizing radiation.

Journal Article Radiats Biol Radioecol · 2006 In this paper we review recently-developed extension frailty, quadratic hazard, stochastic process, microsimulation, and linear latent structure models, which have the potential to describe the health effects of human populations exposed to ionizing radiat ... Link to item Cite

Modeling the effects of biologically incorporated radionuclides and chronic low-dose ionizing radiation exposure on both cancer and chronic non-cancer diseases.

Journal Article Radiats Biol Radioecol · 2006 Efforts to model the health effects of low-dose ionizing radiation (IR) have often focused on cancer. Meanwhile, significant evidence links IR and age-associated non-cancer diseases. Modeling of such complex processes, which are not currently well understo ... Link to item Cite

Endothelial progenitor cell therapy for atherosclerosis: the philosopher's stone for an aging population?

Journal Article Sci Aging Knowledge Environ · June 22, 2005 Much of the increased risk for atherosclerosis progression with age may be a result of age-related declines in the capacity of precursor cells to repair damage in the arterial endothelium. To estimate the impact of progenitor cell therapy for atheroscleros ... Full text Link to item Cite

Risk of thyroid cancer after irradiation in children and adults

Journal Article Current Oncology · January 1, 2005 Cite