Skip to main content

Michael J Pencina

Professor of Biostatistics & Bioinformatics
Biostatistics & Bioinformatics, Division of Biostatistics
Duke Box 2927, Durham, NC 27710
200 Trent Drive, M144 Davison Bldg, Durham, NC 27705
Office hours

8:00am - 5:00pm ET

  

Research Interests


  • Development and assessment of performance of risk prediction models
  • Use of electronic health records (EHR) for predictive medicine
  • Assessment of the usefulness of new biomarkers
  • Optimal treatment guidelines and resource utilization
  • Risk communication strategies: novel approaches
  • Ethical and equitable data science
  • Healthcare artificial intelligence, large language models, and clinical decision support
  • Design of clinical trials with composite outcomes
  • Data monitoring committees (DMC): role, mandate, and operation

Selected Grants


HPV, HIV and Oral Microbiota Interplay in Nigerian Youth (HOMINY)

ResearchCollaborator · Awarded by University of Pennsylvania · 2024 - 2027

Improving Racial Equity in Clinical Decision Making about Access to Organ Transplant

ResearchMentor · Awarded by National Institute on Minority Health and Health Disparities · 2022 - 2027

Integrated Biostatistical Training for CVD Research

Inst. Training Prgm or CMEMentor · Awarded by North Carolina State University · 2022 - 2027

HPV, HIV and Oral Microbiota Interplay in Nigerian Youth (HOMINY) - Year 2 Funding

ResearchConsultant · Awarded by Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey · 2022 - 2025

Improving stroke risk prediction with cohort data and machine learning methods

ResearchPrincipal Investigator · Awarded by National Institutes of Health · 2020 - 2025

Postdoctoral Training in Cardiovascular Clinical Research

Inst. Training Prgm or CMEMentor · Awarded by National Institutes of Health · 2003 - 2025

Debiasing Clinical Care Algorithms

ResearchSignificant Contributor · Awarded by American Heart Association · 2024 - 2025

Measuring AI Maturity in Healthcare Organizations

ResearchPrincipal Investigator · Awarded by Vanderbilt University Medical Center · 2023 - 2025

A Machine Learning Model for Preprocedural Prediction of Cardiovascular Events Including Stroke

ResearchMentor · Awarded by American Heart Association · 2024 - 2024

New causal inference methods for cluster randomized trials with post-randomization selection

ResearchStakeholder · Awarded by Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute · 2020 - 2024

Cardiovascular Risk Prediction for Improved Maternal Health

ResearchCo-Mentor · Awarded by Foundation for Anesthesia Education and Research · 2022 - 2023

Addressing Bias from Missing Data in EHR Based Studies of CVD

ResearchCollaborator · Awarded by National Institutes of Health · 2018 - 2023

Postdoctoral Training in Genomic Medicine Research

Inst. Training Prgm or CMEMentor · Awarded by National Institutes of Health · 2017 - 2023

Health AI Coalition Workgroup

ResearchPrincipal Investigator · Awarded by Mitre Corporation · 2022 - 2022

Methods for the Design and Conduct of Subgroup Analysis in Observational Studies

ResearchAdvisor · Awarded by Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute · 2019 - 2022

Administrative Claims-based Efficiencies for the Advancement of Regulatory Sciences

ResearchBiostatistician · Awarded by Burroughs Wellcome Fund · 2014 - 2021

QuBBD: Deep Poisson Methods for Biomedical Time-to-Event and Longitudinal Data

ResearchPrincipal Investigator · Awarded by National Institutes of Health · 2017 - 2021

Risk Prediction for Secondary Events in Adults with Arteriosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease (ASCVD)

ResearchPrincipal Investigator · Awarded by Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. · 2015 - 2021

Preventing Cardiovascular Disease through Improved Risk Prediction and Communication

ResearchMentor · Awarded by National Institutes of Health · 2016 - 2020

Aspirin Dosing: A Patient-centric Trial Assessing Benefits and Long-term Effectiveness (ADAPTABLE)

Clinical TrialStatistical Investigator · Awarded by Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute · 2015 - 2020

Patient-centered Research into Outcomes Stroke patients Prefer and Effectiveness Research

ResearchStatistical Investigator · Awarded by Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute · 2013 - 2020

Cardiovascular Risk Profile of LAL Deficiency Patients

ResearchCo Investigator · Awarded by Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. · 2016 - 2020

Predictive Analytic Treatment effect Heterogeneity (PATH)

ResearchPrincipal Investigator · Awarded by Tufts Medical Center · 2018 - 2019

Risk prediction for S Arteriosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease (ASCVD) in persons on statins

ResearchPrincipal Investigator · Awarded by Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. · 2016 - 2019

Duke CTSA (UL1): Statistical methods for complex data in CV disease research

ResearchMentor · Awarded by National Institutes of Health · 2013 - 2018

Modified KOR Phase 2A Study

Clinical TrialCo Investigator · Awarded by National Institutes of Health · 2014 - 2017

CKD Biomarkers Consortium

ResearchPrincipal Investigator · Awarded by University of Pennsylvania · 2015 - 2017

Assessment of the Number of Patients Treated for In-stent Restenosis using the Duke Health System

ResearchPrincipal Investigator · Awarded by Abbott Cardiovascular Systems, Inc. · 2016 - 2017

HIV and Asthma in the Post- ART Era

ResearchBiostatistician · Awarded by National Institutes of Health · 2014 - 2016

FAST- MAS Administrative Task Year 3

ResearchStatistical Investigator · Awarded by National Institutes of Health · 2014 - 2015

Southern Consortium Node of the Clinical Trials Network

ResearchSenior Statistician · Awarded by Medical University of South Carolina · 2013 - 2015

External Relationships


  • American Medical Association
  • Azra Care Inc.
  • Catholic Distance University
  • Cleerly
  • Coalition for Health AI
  • Eli Lilly & Co.
  • InQuera
  • McGill University Health System/Doggone Foundation
  • Polska Agencja Badan Medycznych/Polish Medical Research Agency
  • Ropes and Gray

This faculty member (or a member of their immediate family) has reported outside activities with the companies, institutions, or organizations listed above. This information is available to institutional leadership and, when appropriate, management plans are in place to address potential conflicts of interest.