Emerson S. Niou
Professor of Political Science
EMERSON M. S. NIOU (Ph.D., U. of Texas at Austin, 1987) is Professor of Political Science at Duke University. He is the co-author of two books (1) The Balance of Power, Cambridge University Press, 1989; (2) Strategy and Politics: An Introduction to Game Theory, Rutledge, 2015. His recent publications include: (1) “Measuring Preferences for Divided Government: Some Americans Want Divided Government and Vote to Create It.” with Dean Lacy, Philip Paolino, and Robert A. Rein, Political Behavior, December:1-25, 2017; (2) “External Threat, Internal Rivalry, and Alliance Formation” with Sean Zeigler, Journal of Politics, 81(2):571-584, April 2019; and (3) “Measuring ‘Closeness’ in 3-Candidate Elections: Methodology and an Application to Strategic Voting” with Daniel Kselman and Austin Wang, Electoral Studies, 68 (December):1-11, 2020. His current projects include studies of voting, alliance politics, and conflict resolution.
Office Hours
Current Appointments & Affiliations
- Professor of Political Science, Political Science, Trinity College of Arts & Sciences 2002
Contact Information
- 140 Science Drive, 273 Gross, Box 90204, Durham, NC 27708
- Box 90204, Durham, NC 27708-0204
-
niou@duke.edu
(919) 660-4300
-
C.V. - Emerson Niou
- Background
-
Education, Training, & Certifications
- Ph.D., University of Texas, Austin 1987
-
Previous Appointments & Affiliations
- Associate Professor with Tenure, Political Science, Trinity College of Arts & Sciences 1994 - 2002
- Acting Director, Asian & Middle Eastern Studies, Trinity College of Arts & Sciences 1995 - 1996
- Assistant Professor, Political Science, Trinity College of Arts & Sciences 1988 - 1993
- Recognition
-
In the News
-
NOV 9, 2015 The Washington Post -
NOV 9, 2015 The Washington Post -
FEB 5, 2015 -
FEB 5, 2015 Duke Today
-
-
Awards & Honors
- Expertise
-
Subject Headings
-
Global Scholarship
-
Research
-
- Research
-
Selected Grants
- Enhancement of Taiwan Studies in the United States awarded by College of William and Mary 2014
- Taiwanese Public Opinion and Security Stability in the Taiwan Strait awarded by Josiah Charles Trent Memorial Foundation 2006 - 2007
- Conference on Cross-Strait Issues: Conflicting or Complementary approaches (October 2002) awarded by Josiah Charles Trent Memorial Foundation 2002 - 2003
- The Roots of Democratization: Village Elections in China awarded by Josiah Charles Trent Memorial Foundation 1997 - 1998
- A Theory of Alliances awarded by National Science Foundation 1996 - 1997
- Democratic Institutions in East Asia awarded by Josiah Charles Trent Memorial Foundation 1996 - 1997
- Principles of Constitutional and International Stability awarded by National Science Foundation 1993 - 1995
- Post-cold War Security Challenges in East Asia awarded by Josiah Charles Trent Memorial Foundation 1994
- Symposium on International Prosperity and Security in the 1990s awarded by Josiah Charles Trent Memorial Foundation 1993 - 1994
- An Analysis of the New World Order in an Anarchic International System awarded by Josiah Charles Trent Memorial Foundation 1992
- Travel to Conduct Research on Security Issues in the Taiwan Straits awarded by Josiah Charles Trent Memorial Foundation 1991
- A Game-Theoretic Analysis of the Balance of Power and the Costs of War awarded by National Science Foundation 1989 - 1991
- A Theory of the Balance of Power in the 20th Century awarded by Josiah Charles Trent Memorial Foundation 1989
- Publications & Artistic Works
-
Selected Publications
-
Books
-
Niou, E., and P. Ordeshook. Strategy and Politics. Routledge, 2015.
-
Niou, Emerson. Bean Voting: The History and Politics of Secret Ballot (in Chinese). People’s University Press, 2014.
-
Niou, Emerson. An Introduction to Community Compacts in China (in Chinese). Chinese Society Press, 2014.
-
Niou, E. An Introduction to Community Compacts in China (in Chinese). Chinese Society Press, 2005.
-
Niou, E., and P. C. Ordeshook. The Balance of Power: Stability in International Systems. Cambridge University Press, 1989.
-
-
Academic Articles
-
Kselman, D., E. Niou, and A. H. E. Wang. “Measuring ‘closeness’ in 3-candidate elections: Methodology and an application to strategic voting.” Electoral Studies 68 (December 1, 2020). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2020.102220.Full Text
-
Niou, E. M. S., and S. M. Zeigler. “External threat, internal rivalry, and alliance formation.” Journal of Politics 81, no. 2 (April 1, 2019): 571–84. https://doi.org/10.1086/701724.Full Text
-
Lacy, D., E. M. S. Niou, P. Paolino, and R. A. Rein. “Measuring Preferences for Divided Government: Some Americans Want Divided Government and Vote to Create It.” Political Behavior 41, no. 1 (March 15, 2019): 79–103. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-017-9442-4.Full Text
-
Hickey, D. V., and E. M. S. Niou. “Taiwan in 2016: A new era?” Asian Survey 57, no. 1 (February 1, 2017): 111–18. https://doi.org/10.1525/AS.2017.57.1.111.Full Text
-
Hickey, D. V., and E. Niou. “Taiwan in 2015: A turning point?” Asian Survey 56, no. 1 (January 1, 2016): 57–67. https://doi.org/10.1525/AS.2016.56.1.57.Full Text
-
Lacy, Dean, Emerson Niou, and Philip Paolino. “Measuring Preferences for Divided Government,” 2013.
-
Lacy, Dean, and Emerosn Niou. “Information and Issue Voting in Taiwan,” 2013.
-
Song, Jianmin, and Emerson Niou. “日本地方财政的财源结构与地方自治的特征 [The Financial Politics of Local Self-Government in Japan].” Fudan University Political Science Review 13 (2013): 172–95.
-
Niou, E. “The China Factor in Taiwanese Politics.” Journal of Social Science, University of Tokyo, 2012.
-
Lacy, Dean, and Emerson Niou. ““Information and Heterogeneity in Issue Voting: Evidence from the 2008 Presidential Election in Taiwan,”.” Journal of East Asian Studies, 2012.
-
Kselman, Daniel, and Emerson Niou. “Protest Voting in Plurality Elections: A Theory of Voter Signaling.” Public Choice, June 2010.
-
Kselman, Daniel, and Emerson Niou. “Strategic Voting in Plurality Elections.” Political Analysis 18, no. 2 (2010): 227–44.
-
Niou, E. “中國地方自治爲何總不成功 [Why Has the Self-Government Movement Not Been Successful in China? ].” Fudan Univeristy Political Science Review, no. 6 (2008).
-
Benson, Brett, and Emerson Niou. “Economic Interdependence and Peace: A Game-Theoretic Analysis.” Journal of East Asian Studies 7, no. 1 (March 2007): 35–59.
-
Niou, E. “彭真与中國地方自治的再起 [Peng Zhen and the Reemergence of Self-Governance in China].” Zhejiang Academic Journal, no. 1 (2007): 99–106.
-
Niou, E. S. “清末地方自治運動的反思 [Lessons from the self-government movement in the late Qing Dynasty].” 21 Century Bi Monthly, December 2006.
-
Chu, C., and E. Niou. “The Strategy of Ambiguity in Electoral Competition.” Academia Economic Papers 33, no. 3 (September 2005): 279–302.
-
Niou, E., and G. Tan. “External Threat and Collective Action.” Economic Inquiry 43, no. 3 (July 2005).
-
Niou, E., and K. Chen. “Term Limits as a Response to Incumbency Advantage.” Journal of Politics 67, no. 2 (May 2005): 390–406.
-
Hsieh, J. F. S., and E. M. S. Niou. “Measuring Taiwanese public opinion on Taiwanese independence.” China Quarterly, no. 181 (March 1, 2005): 158–68.
-
Hsieh, J., and E. Niou. “Measuring Taiwanese Public Opinion on the Taiwan Independence Issue: A Methodological Note.” China Quarterly 18, no. 1 (March 2005): 158–68.
-
Niou, E. “A New Measure of the Preferences on the Independence-Unification Issue in Taiwan.” Journal of Asian and African Studies 40, no. 1–2 (2005): 91–104.
-
Niou, E., and B. Benson. “Public Opinion, Foreign Policy, and the Security Balance in the Taiwan Strait.” Security Studies 14, no. 2 (2005).
-
Niou, E. M. S. “Understanding Taiwan independence and its policy implications.” Asian Survey 44, no. 4 (July 1, 2004): 555–67. https://doi.org/10.1525/as.2004.44.4.555.Full Text
-
Lacy, D., and E. M. S. Niou. “A Theory of Economic Sanctions and Issue Linkage: The Roles of Preferences, Information, and Threats.” Journal of Politics 66, no. 1 (February 1, 2004): 25–42. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1468-2508.2004.00140.x.Full Text
-
Niou, E. S. “中外選舉制度的類別及特點 [An Introduction to Voting Methods].” 21st Century Bi Monthly, February 2004.
-
Niou, E. S. “從封建、郡縣、到自治: 論中國地方制度的演變 [On Local Governance in China: From Feudalism, Centralized Bureaucracy, to Self-Government].” Open Times, no. 6 (2004).
-
Niou, E. S. “對中共核威懾的重新審視 [A Reevaluation of China’s Nuclear Deterrence Strategy].” Studies on Chinese Communism, December 2003.
-
Niou, E., and C. Lin. “China’s Nuclear Strategy: Minimal or Limited Deterrence?” Studies on Chinese Communism, December 2003.
-
Niou, E., and P. Paolino. “The Rise of the Opposition Party in Taiwan: Explaining Chen Shui-bian's Victory in the 2000 Presidential Election in Taiwan.” Electoral Studies 22, no. 4 (December 2003): 721–40.
-
Niou, E., and C. Lin. “Analyzing China’s Nuclear Threat to the United States.” Mainland China Studies, November 2003.
-
Niou, E. “經濟因素對中國村民自治發展的影響 [Economic Development and Local Self-Government in China].” 21 Century Bi Monthly, August 2003.
-
Niou, E. S., and C. Lin. “中共洲際導彈軍力的建設與實力 [Development of ICBMs in China].” Studies on Chinese Communism 37, no. 7 (July 2003): 80–90.
-
Niou, E., and C. Lin. “Counting China’s ICBMs.” Studies on Chinese Communism 37, no. 7 (July 2003): 80–90.
-
Lin, Changsheng, and E. Niou. “論中共嚇阻美軍介入台海衝突的軍事準備及其影響 [Assessing China's Military Preparation to Deter the US from Intervening in the Taiwan Strait Conflict].” Mainland China Studies, 2003.
-
Niou, E. “患難相恤: 論中國民間的自治與扶貧 [Self-Governance and Poverty Alleviation in China].” 21 Century E Journal, 2003.
-
Niou, E. “Strategic Voting under Plurality and Runoff Rules?” Journal of Theoretical Politics 13, no. 2 (April 2001): 209–27.
-
Lacy, D., and E. M. S. Niou. “A problem with referendums.” Journal of Theoretical Politics 12, no. 1 (January 1, 2000): 5–31. https://doi.org/10.1177/0951692800012001001.Full Text
-
Lacy, D., and E. Niou. “全民公決的若干問題 [A Problem with Referendums].” Journal of Theoretical Politics, January 2000.
-
Niou, E., and P. Ordeshook. “Return of the Luddites.” International Security 24, no. 2 (October 1999): 84–96.
-
Ordeshook, P., and E. Niou. “Alliances and Federations.” Constitutional Political Economy, 1999.
-
Lacy, D., and E. M. S. Niou. “Elections in double-member districts with nonseparable voter preferences.” Journal of Theoretical Politics 10, no. 1 (January 1, 1998): 89–110. https://doi.org/10.1177/0951692898010001004.Full Text
-
Niou, E. M. S., and P. C. Ordeshook. “Alliances versus federations: An extension of riker's analysis of federal formation.” Constitutional Political Economy 9, no. 4 (January 1, 1998): 271–88. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1009062602826.Full Text
-
Niou, E., J. Hsieh, and D. Lacy. “Retrospective and Prospective Voting in a One-Party Dominance Democracy: Taiwan's 1996 Presidential Election.” Public Choice, 1998.
-
Brehm, J., and E. M. S. Niou. “A comparative analysis of the control systems used in the former Soviet Union and Communist China.” Journal of Theoretical Politics 9, no. 1 (January 1, 1997): 107–30. https://doi.org/10.1177/0951692897009001010.Full Text
-
Niou, E., J. Hsieh, and P. Paolino. “Strategic Voting in the 1994 Taipei City Mayoral Election.” Electoral Studies, 1997.
-
Niou, E., and J. Hsieh. “Taiwan's March 1996 Elections.” Electoral Studies 15, no. 4 (November 1996): 545–50.
-
Niou, E., and T. Huang. “Party System and Democratic Consolidation: The Case of Taiwan.” American Asian Review, October 1996.
-
Niou, E., J. Hsieh, and D. Lacy. “Economic Voting in the 1994 Taiwan Elections.” American Asian Review, July 1996.
-
Brehm, J., and E. Niou. “Police Patrol vs. Self-Policing: A Comparative Analysis of the Control Systems Used in the Ex-Soviet Union and the Communist China.” Journal of Theoretical Politics, 1996.
-
Feaver, P. D., and E. M. S. Niou. “Managing nuclear proliferation: Condemn, strike, or assist?” International Studies Quarterly 40, no. 2 (January 1, 1996): 209–34. https://doi.org/10.2307/2600957.Full Text
-
Hsieh, J., and E. Niou. “Issue Voting in the Republic of China on Taiwan's 1992 Legislative Yuan Election.” International Political Science Review, 1996.
-
Huang, T., and E. M. S. Niou. “Electoral politics in Taiwan.” Asian Affairs 23, no. 2 (January 1, 1996): 128–38. https://doi.org/10.1080/00927678.1996.9933724.Full Text
-
Niou, E., and P. Feaver. “Managing Nuclear Proliferation: What Makes Sense?” International Studies Quarterly, 1996.
-
Niou, E., and J. Hsieh. “Salient Issues in Taiwan's Electoral Politics.” Electoral Studies, 1996.
-
Niou, E. S., J. F. Hsieh, and H. Lin. “民國八十三年省市長選舉中之議題投票:理性抉擇理論之分析 [Issue Voting in the 1994 Gubernatorial and Mayoral Elections: An Application of Rational Choice Approach].” Journal of Electoral Studies, 1995.
-
Niou, E., and P. C. Ordeshook. “A Game-Theoretic Analysis of Sun Tzu's The Art of War.” Journal of Peace Research 31, no. 2 (May 1994).
-
Niou, E. M. S., and P. C. Ordeshook. “A Game-Theoretic Interpretation of Sun Tzu's: The Art of War.” Journal of Peace Research 31, no. 2 (January 1, 1994): 161–74. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343394031002004.Full Text
-
Niou, E., and P. C. Ordeshook. “Alliances in Anarchic International Systems.” International Studies Quarterly, 1994.
-
Niou, E., and G. Cox. “Seat Bonuses under the Single Non-Transferable Vote for Large Parties: Evidence from Japan and Taiwan.” Comparative Politics, January 1994.
-
Niou, E., and G. Tan. “An Analysis of Dr. Sun Yet-sen's Self-Assessment Scheme for Land Policy.” Public Choice 78, no. 1 (January 1994).
-
Niou, E., and P. C. Ordeshook. “Less Filling, Tastes Great: The Realist-Neoliberal Debate.” World Politics, January 1994.
-
Niou, E., and P. C. Ordeshook. “Notes on Constitutional Change in the Republic of China on Taiwan.” Chinese Political Science Review, December 1993.
-
Niou, E., P. C. Ordeshook, and G. Tan. “Taiwanese Investment in Mainland China as a Tool of Foreign Policy.” Issues and Studies, August 1992.
-
Niou, E. “An Analysis of the Republic Of China's Security Issues.” Issues and Studies, January 1992.
-
Niou, E., and P. C. Ordeshook. “A Game Theoretic Analysis of the Republic of China's Emerging Electoral System.” International Political Science Review, 1992.
-
Niou, E. “Constitutional Design in Taiwan: Presidential versus Parliamentary Systems.” The Annals: Chinese Association of Political Science, December 1991.
-
Niou, E., and P. C. Ordeshook. “Realism versus Neoliberalism: A Formulation.” American Journal of Political Science, May 1991.
-
Niou, E., and P. C. Ordeshook. “Stability in Anarchic International Systems.” American Political Science Review, December 1990.
-
Niou, E. M. S., and P. C. Ordeshook. “The geographical imperatives of the balance of power in 3-country systems.” Mathematical and Computer Modelling 12, no. 4–5 (January 1, 1989): 519–31. https://doi.org/10.1016/0895-7177(89)90422-6.Full Text
-
Niou, E., and P. C. Ordeshook. “The Imperatives of Geography and the Balance of Power in 3-Country Systems.” Mathematical and Computer Modeling, 1989.
-
Niou, E., and P. C. Ordeshook. “An Experimental Test of a Theory of the Balance of Power.” Simulation and Games, December 1988.
-
Niou, E., and P. C. Ordeshook. “Preventive War and the Balance of Power: A Game-Theoretic Analysis.” Journal of Conflict Resolution, September 1987.
-
Niou, E. “A Note on Nanson's Rule.” Public Choice, June 1987.
-
Niou, E., and P. C. Ordeshook. “A Theory of the Balance of Power.” Journal of Conflict Resolution, December 1986.
-
Niou, E. M. S., and P. C. Ordeshook. “A Theory of the Balance of Power in International Systems.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 30, no. 4 (January 1, 1986): 685–715. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002786030004005.Full Text
-
Niou, E., and P. C. Ordeshook. “Universalism in Congress.” American Journal of Political Science, May 1985.
-
-
Book Sections
-
Niou, E. M. S. “On local governance in China: From feudalism, centralized bureaucracy, to self-governance.” In Confucian Culture and Democracy, 225–46, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1142/9789814596398_0010.Full Text
-
Lacy, Dean, and Emerson Niou. “Nonseparable Preferences and Issue Packaging in Elections.” In Advances in Political Economy: Instituions, Modeling, and Empirical Analysis, edited by Norman Schofield and Daniel Kselman. Springer, 2013.
-
Niou, Emerson. “The China Factor in Taiwan’s Electoral Politics.” In Democratization in Taiwan: Challenges in Transformation, edited by Jim Meernik and Philip Paolino. Ashgate Publishing, 2008.
-
Niou, Emerson. “論如何培養自治的真精神 [On Cultivating the Spirit of Self-Governance].” In Prospects of Grassroots Democracy in China, edited by Yong Xu and Zengyang Xu, 2007.
-
Niou, E. “Village Elections: Roots of Democratization in China.” In How Asia Votes, edited by John Hsieh and David Newman. Chatham House, 2001.
-
Niou, E. “An Introduction to the Electoral Systems Used in Chinese Village Elections.” In Contemporary China: Approaching the 21st Century, edited by James R. Lilley, Rebecca W. McGinnis, and B Alison Panko. University Press of Maryland, 1999.
-
Niou, E., and P. Ordeshook. “Designing Government for Coherent Domestic and Foreign Policy: Taiwan as a Test Case.” In Consolidating The Third Wave Democracies: Themes and Perspectives, edited by Larry Diamond, Marc Plattner, Yun-han Chu, and Hong-mao Tien. Johns Hopkins University Press, 1997.
-
Niou, E., and P. C. Ordeshook. “Balance of Power versus Collective Security: A Game-Theoretic Analysis.” In Strategic Stability in the Post-Cold War World and the Future of Nuclear Disarmament, edited by Jr Melvin L Best. Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1996.
-
Niou, E. “An Evaluation of the Republic of China’s Foreign Policy Alternatives.” In The Permutation Across the Taiwan Straits, edited by T. J. Cheng, C. Hwang, and S. Wu. Lynn Reiner Press, 1994.
-
Niou, E., and P. C. Ordeshook. “The Prospects for a New International Order based on Collective Security.” In Collective Security beyond the Cold War, edited by George W. Downs. University of Michigan Press, 1994.
-
Niou, E., and P. C. Ordeshook. “Stability in International Systems and The Costs of War.” In Models of Strategic Choices in Politics, edited by P. C. Ordeshook. University of Michigan Press, 1989.
-
-
- Teaching & Mentoring
-
Recent Courses
- POLSCI 229: Institutions and Self Governance 2023
- POLSCI 333S: Democracy and Social Choice 2023
- POLSCI 333S: Democracy and Social Choice 2022
- POLSCI 391-2: Senior Independent Study in Political Institutions 2022
- POLSCI 493-6: Senior Research Independent Study in Political Methodology 2022
- POLSCI 229: Institutions and Self Governance 2021
- POLSCI 291-4: Sophomore/Junior Independent Study Political Behavior and Identities 2021
- POLSCI 332: Games and Politics 2021
- POLSCI 333S: Democracy and Social Choice 2021
- POLSCI 493-2: Senior Research Independent Study Political Institutions 2021
- Scholarly, Clinical, & Service Activities
-
Presentations & Appearances
- Bean Voting: The History and Politics of Secret Ballot. November 21, 2013 2013
- How to Induce People to Reveal Truth. August 17, 2013 2013
- External Threats and Internal Rivalry: A Theory of Alliance Formation. August 10, 2013 2013
- Institutions for Poverty Alleviation in China. June 6, 2013 2013
- Prospects for China's Democratization. May 25, 2013 2013
- Prospects for China's Democratization. May 24, 2013 2013
- External Threats and Internal Rivalry: A Theory of Alliance Formation. May 20, 2013 2013
- Game Theory and Political Science. May 20, 2013 2013
- How to Induce People to Reveal Truth. May 17, 2013 2013
- A Comparative Study of Three Social Control Institutions. May 13, 2013 2013
- Bean Voting: The History and Politics of Secret Ballot. May 4, 2013 2013
- The China Factor in Taiwanese Politics. April 27, 2013 2013
- The China Factor in Taiwanese Politics. April 23, 2013 2013
- The Effect of Foreign Policies on Domestic Opinion and National Security. February 19, 2013 2013
- Institutions and Governance. December 13, 2012 2012
- The History and Politics of Secret Ballot. December 8, 2012 2012
- Bean Voting and the Prospects of China's Political Reform. December 6, 2012 2012
- History and Politics of Secret Ballo. December 1, 2012 2012
- Information and Issue Salience in Taiwan's Elections. November 3, 2012 2012
- Follow the Flag or Trade. September 9, 2012 2012
- External Threat and Collective Actions. July 14, 2012 2012
- History and Politics of Secret Ballo. June 26, 2012 2012
- Institutions and Truthful Revelation of Preferences. June 20, 2012 2012
- External Threat and Collective Actions. May 23, 2012 2012
- The China Factor in Taiwanese Politics. March 2, 2012 2012
- History and Politics of Secret Ballo. January 3, 2012 2012
-
Service to the Profession
- Organizer : New Faces in China Studies Conference. May 4, 2013 2013
- Organizer : Public Opinions and Security Balance in the Taiwan Strait. April 27, 2013 2013
- Organizer : The 2012 Methodology Workshop for Chinese Political Scientists, in collaboration with the ICPSR Summer Program. July 9, 2012 - July 25, 2012 2012
Some information on this profile has been compiled automatically from Duke databases and external sources. (Our About page explains how this works.) If you see a problem with the information, please write to Scholars@Duke and let us know. We will reply promptly.