Scholars@Duke

• Background
• 

  Education, Training, & Certifications

  • Ph.D., University of Texas at Austin 1987
• 

  Duke Appointment History

  • Associate Professor with Tenure, Political Science, Trinity College of Arts & Sciences 1994 - 2002
  • Acting Director, Asian and Middle Eastern Studies, Trinity College of Arts & Sciences 1995 - 1996
  • Assistant Professor, Political Science, Trinity College of Arts & Sciences 1988 - 1993
• Recognition
• 

  In the News

  • NOV 9, 2015

    The Washington Post

    Taiwan and mainland China in talks? Here are the 5 things you need to know about what Taiwanese people are thinking

  • FEB 5, 2015

    Bullock to Retire from Duke Kunshan University
• 

  Awards & Honors

  • Research Grants. Chiang Ching-Kuo Foundation. 2004
  • Research Grants. Chiang Ching-Kuo Foundation. 2000
  • Research Grants. Chiang Ching-Kuo Foundation. 1993
  • Research Grants. Chiang Ching-Kuo Foundation. 1990
• Expertise
• 

  Subject Headings

  • Game Theory
  • International relations
  • Political Systems
• 

  Global Scholarship

  • Research

    • China (Country) 
    • Taiwan (Country) 
• Research
• 

  Selected Grants

  • Enhancement of Taiwan Studies in the United States awarded by College of William and Mary 2014
  • Taiwanese Public Opinion and Security Stability in the Taiwan Strait awarded by Josiah Charles Trent Memorial Foundation 2006 - 2007
  • Conference on Cross-Strait Issues: Conflicting or Complementary approaches (October 2002) awarded by Josiah Charles Trent Memorial Foundation 2002 - 2003
  • (98-0058) The Roots of Democratization: Village Elections in China awarded by Josiah Charles Trent Memorial Foundation 1997 - 1998
  • (96-0066) A Theory of Alliances awarded by  National Science Foundation 1996 - 1997
  • (97-0036) Democratic Institutions in East Asia awarded by Josiah Charles Trent Memorial Foundation 1996 - 1997
  • (93-0081) Principles of Constitutional and International Stability awarded by  National Science Foundation 1993 - 1995
  • (94-0641) Post-cold War Security Challenges in East Asia awarded by Josiah Charles Trent Memorial Foundation 1994
  • (93-0976) Symposium on International Prosperity and Security in the 1990s awarded by Josiah Charles Trent Memorial Foundation 1993 - 1994
  • (92-0493) An Analysis of the New World Order in an Anarchic International System awarded by Josiah Charles Trent Memorial Foundation 1992
  • (91-0421) Travel to Conduct Research on Security Issues in the Taiwan Straits awarded by Josiah Charles Trent Memorial Foundation 1991
  • (89-0114) A Game-Theoretic Analysis of the Balance of Power and the Costs of War awarded by  National Science Foundation 1989 - 1991
  • (89-0376) A Theory of the Balance of Power in the 20th Century awarded by Josiah Charles Trent Memorial Foundation 1989
• Publications & Artistic Works
• 

  Selected Publications

  • Books

    • Niou, E., and P. Ordeshook. Strategy and Politics. Routledge, 2015.
    • Niou, Emerson. Bean Voting: The History and Politics of Secret Ballot (in Chinese). People’s University Press, 2014.
    • Niou, Emerson. An Introduction to Community Compacts in China (in Chinese). Chinese Society Press, 2014.
    • Niou, E. An Introduction to Community Compacts in China (in Chinese). Chinese Society Press, 2005.
    • Niou, E., and P. C. Ordeshook. The Balance of Power: Stability in International Systems. Cambridge University Press, 1989.

  • Academic Articles

    • Niou, E. M. S., and S. M. Zeigler. “External threat, internal rivalry, and alliance formation.” Journal of Politics 81, no. 2 (April 1, 2019): 571–84. https://doi.org/10.1086/701724.
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    • Lacy, D., E. M. S. Niou, P. Paolino, and R. A. Rein. “Measuring Preferences for Divided Government: Some Americans Want Divided Government and Vote to Create It.” Political Behavior 41, no. 1 (March 15, 2019): 79–103. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-017-9442-4.
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    • Hickey, D. V., and E. M. S. Niou. “Taiwan in 2016: A new era?.” Asian Survey 57, no. 1 (February 1, 2017): 111–18. https://doi.org/10.1525/AS.2017.57.1.111.
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    • Hickey, D. V., and E. Niou. “Taiwan in 2015: A turning point?.” Asian Survey 56, no. 1 (January 1, 2016): 57–67. https://doi.org/10.1525/AS.2016.56.1.57.
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    • Lacy, Dean, Emerson Niou, and Philip Paolino. “Measuring Preferences for Divided Government,” 2013.
    • Lacy, Dean, and Emerosn Niou. “Information and Issue Voting in Taiwan,” 2013.
    • Song, Jianmin, and Emerson Niou. “日本地方财政的财源结构与地方自治的特征 [The Financial Politics of Local Self-Government in Japan].” Fudan University Political Science Review 13 (2013): 172–95.
    • Lacy, D., and E. M. S. Niou. “Information and heterogeneity in issue voting: Evidence from the 2008 presidential election in Taiwan.” Journal of East Asian Studies 12, no. 1 (January 1, 2012): 119–41. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1598240800007645.
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    • Niou, E. “The China Factor in Taiwanese Politics.” Journal of Social Science, University of Tokyo, 2012.
    • Kselman, D., and E. Niou. “Protest voting in plurality elections: A theory of voter signaling.” Public Choice 148, no. 3–4 (September 1, 2011): 395–418. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-010-9661-2.
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    • Cox, G. W., and E. Niou. “Seat bonuses under the single non-transferable vote system: Evidence from Japan and Taiwan,” January 1, 2010, 351–74.
    • Kselman, D., and E. Niou. “Strategic voting in plurality elections.” Political Analysis 18, no. 2 (November 12, 2009): 227–44. https://doi.org/10.1093/pan/mpp027.
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    • Niou, E. “中國地方自治爲何總不成功 [Why Has the Self-Government Movement Not Been Successful in China? ].” Fudan Univeristy Political Science Review, no. 6 (2008).
    • Benson, Brett, and Emerson Niou. “Economic Interdependence and Peace: A Game-Theoretic Analysis.” Journal of East Asian Studies 7, no. 1 (March 2007): 35–59.
    • Niou, E. “彭真与中國地方自治的再起 [Peng Zhen and the Reemergence of Self-Governance in China].” Zhejiang Academic Journal, no. 1 (2007): 99–106.
    • Niou, E. S. “清末地方自治運動的反思 [Lessons from the self-government movement in the late Qing Dynasty].” 21 Century Bi Monthly, December 2006.
    • Chu, C., and E. Niou. “The Strategy of Ambiguity in Electoral Competition.” Academia Economic Papers 33, no. 3 (September 2005): 279–302.
    • Niou, E. M. S., and G. Tan. “External threat and collective action.” Economic Inquiry 43, no. 3 (July 1, 2005): 519–30. https://doi.org/10.1093/ei/cbi035.
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    • Chen, K. P., and E. M. S. Niou. “Term limits as a response to incumbency advantage.” Journal of Politics 67, no. 2 (May 1, 2005): 390–406. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2508.2005.00322.x.
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    • Hsieh, J. F. S., and E. M. S. Niou. “Measuring Taiwanese public opinion on Taiwanese independence.” China Quarterly, no. 181 (March 1, 2005): 158–68.
    • Hsieh, J., and E. Niou. “Measuring Taiwanese Public Opinion on the Taiwan Independence Issue: A Methodological Note.” China Quarterly 18, no. 1 (March 2005): 158–68.
    • Niou, E. M. S. “A new measure of preferences on the independence-unification issue in Taiwan.” Journal of Asian and African Studies 40, no. 1–2 (February 1, 2005): 91–104. https://doi.org/10.1177/0021909605052946.
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    • Benson, B. V., and E. M. S. Niou. “Public opinion, foreign policy, and the security balance in the Taiwan Strait.” Security Studies 14, no. 2 (December 1, 2004): 274–89. https://doi.org/10.1080/09636410500232933.
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    • Niou, E. M. S. “Understanding Taiwan independence and its policy implications.” Asian Survey 44, no. 4 (July 1, 2004): 555–67. https://doi.org/10.1525/as.2004.44.4.555.
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    • Lacy, D., and E. M. S. Niou. “A Theory of Economic Sanctions and Issue Linkage: The Roles of Preferences, Information, and Threats.” Journal of Politics 66, no. 1 (February 1, 2004): 25–42. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1468-2508.2004.00140.x.
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    • Niou, E. S. “中外選舉制度的類別及特點 [An Introduction to Voting Methods].” 21st Century Bi Monthly, February 2004.
    • Niou, E. S. “從封建、郡縣、到自治: 論中國地方制度的演變 [On Local Governance in China: From Feudalism, Centralized Bureaucracy, to Self-Government].” Open Times, no. 6 (2004).
    • Niou, E. S. “對中共核威懾的重新審視 [A Reevaluation of China’s Nuclear Deterrence Strategy].” Studies on Chinese Communism, December 2003.
    • Niou, E., and C. Lin. “China’s Nuclear Strategy: Minimal or Limited Deterrence?.” Studies on Chinese Communism, December 2003.
    • Niou, E., and C. Lin. “Analyzing China’s Nuclear Threat to the United States.” Mainland China Studies, November 2003.
    • Niou, E. “經濟因素對中國村民自治發展的影響 [Economic Development and Local Self-Government in China].” 21 Century Bi Monthly, August 2003.
    • Niou, E. S., and C. Lin. “中共洲際導彈軍力的建設與實力 [Development of ICBMs in China].” Studies on Chinese Communism 37, no. 7 (July 2003): 80–90.
    • Niou, E., and C. Lin. “Counting China’s ICBMs.” Studies on Chinese Communism 37, no. 7 (July 2003): 80–90.
    • Lin, Changsheng, and E. Niou. “論中共嚇阻美軍介入台海衝突的軍事準備及其影響 [Assessing China's Military Preparation to Deter the US from Intervening in the Taiwan Strait Conflict].” Mainland China Studies, 2003.
    • Niou, E. “患難相恤: 論中國民間的自治與扶貧 [Self-Governance and Poverty Alleviation in China].” 21 Century E Journal, 2003.
    • Niou, E., and P. Paolino. “The rise of the opposition party in Taiwan: Explaining Chen Shui-bian's victory in the 2000 Presidential election.” Electoral Studies 22, no. 4 (January 1, 2003): 721–40. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0261-3794(02)00010-0.
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    • Niou, E. M. S. “Strategic voting under plurality and runoff rules.” Journal of Theoretical Politics 13, no. 2 (January 1, 2001): 209–27. https://doi.org/10.1177/0951692801013002004.
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    • Lacy, D., and E. M. S. Niou. “A problem with referendums.” Journal of Theoretical Politics 12, no. 1 (January 1, 2000): 5–31. https://doi.org/10.1177/0951692800012001001.
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    • Lacy, D., and E. Niou. “全民公決的若干問題 [A Problem with Referendums].” Journal of Theoretical Politics, January 2000.
    • Niou, E. M. S., and P. C. Ordeshook. “Return of the Luddites.” International Security 24, no. 2 (September 1, 1999): 84–94.
    • Ordeshook, P., and E. Niou. “Alliances and Federations.” Constitutional Political Economy, 1999.
    • Niou, EMS, and Ordeshook, PC. "Alliances versus federations: An extension of riker's analysis of federal formation." Constitutional Political Economy 9, no. 4 (December 1, 1998): 271-288.
    • Lacy, D., and E. M. S. Niou. “Elections in double-member districts with nonseparable voter preferences.” Journal of Theoretical Politics 10, no. 1 (January 1, 1998): 89–110. https://doi.org/10.1177/0951692898010001004.
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    • Niou, E, Hsieh, J, and Lacy, D. "Retrospective and Prospective Voting in a One-Party Dominance Democracy: Taiwan's 1996 Presidential Election." Public Choice (1998). (Academic Article)
    • Hsieh, J. F. S., E. M. S. Niou, and P. Paolino. “Strategic voting in the 1994 Taipei city mayoral election.” Electoral Studies 16, no. 2 (June 1, 1997): 153–63.
    • Brehm, J., and E. M. S. Niou. “A comparative analysis of the control systems used in the former Soviet Union and Communist China.” Journal of Theoretical Politics 9, no. 1 (January 1, 1997): 107–30.
    • Niou, E., and J. Hsieh. “Taiwan's March 1996 Elections.” Electoral Studies 15, no. 4 (November 1996): 545–50.
    • Niou, E., and T. Huang. “Party System and Democratic Consolidation: The Case of Taiwan.” American Asian Review, October 1996.
    • Niou, E., J. Hsieh, and D. Lacy. “Economic Voting in the 1994 Taiwan Elections.” American Asian Review, July 1996.
    • Brehm, J., and E. Niou. “Police Patrol vs. Self-Policing: A Comparative Analysis of the Control Systems Used in the Ex-Soviet Union and the Communist China.” Journal of Theoretical Politics, 1996.
    • Feaver, P. D., and E. M. S. Niou. “Managing nuclear proliferation: Condemn, strike, or assist?.” International Studies Quarterly 40, no. 2 (January 1, 1996): 209–34. https://doi.org/10.2307/2600957.
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    • Hsieh, J. F. S., and E. M. S. Niou. “Issue voting in the Republic of China on Taiwan's 1992 legislative Yuan election.” International Political Science Review 17, no. 1 (January 1, 1996): 13–27. https://doi.org/10.1177/019251296017001002.
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    • Hsieh, J. F. S., and E. M. S. Niou. “Salient Issues in Taiwan's Electoral Politics.” Electoral Studies 15, no. 2 (January 1, 1996): 219–35. https://doi.org/10.1016/0261-3794(95)00031-3.
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    • Huang, T., and E. M. S. Niou. “Electoral politics in Taiwan.” Asian Affairs 23, no. 2 (January 1, 1996): 128–38. https://doi.org/10.1080/00927678.1996.9933724.
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    • Niou, E., and P. Feaver. “Managing Nuclear Proliferation: What Makes Sense?.” International Studies Quarterly, 1996.
    • Niou, E. S., J. F. Hsieh, and H. Lin. “民國八十三年省市長選舉中之議題投票：理性抉擇理論之分析 [Issue Voting in the 1994 Gubernatorial and Mayoral Elections: An Application of Rational Choice Approach].” Journal of Electoral Studies, 1995.
    • Niou, E., and P. C. Ordeshook. “A Game-Theoretic Analysis of Sun Tzu's The Art of War.” Journal of Peace Research 31, no. 2 (May 1994).
    • Niou, E. M. S., and G. Tan. “An analysis of Dr. Sun Yat-sen's self-assessment scheme for land taxation.” Public Choice 78, no. 1 (January 1, 1994): 103–14. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01053368.
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    • Niou, E. M. S., and P. C. Ordeshook. “A Game-Theoretic Interpretation of Sun Tzu's: The Art of War.” Journal of Peace Research 31, no. 2 (January 1, 1994): 161–74. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343394031002004.
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    • Niou, E. M. S., and P. C. Ordeshook. ““Less filling, tastes great” the realist-neoliberal debate.” World Politics 46, no. 2 (January 1, 1994): 209–34. https://doi.org/10.2307/2950673.
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    • Niou, E., and P. C. Ordeshook. “Alliances in Anarchic International Systems.” International Studies Quarterly, 1994.
    • Niou, E., and P. C. Ordeshook. “Notes on Constitutional Change in the Republic of China on Taiwan.” Chinese Political Science Review, December 1993.
    • Niou, E., P. C. Ordeshook, and G. Tan. “Taiwanese Investment in Mainland China as a Tool of Foreign Policy.” Issues and Studies, August 1992.
    • Niou, E. M. S., and P. C. Ordeshook. “A Game Theoretic Analysis of the Republic of China's Emerging Electoral System.” International Political Science Review 13, no. 1 (January 1, 1992): 59–79. https://doi.org/10.1177/019251219201300105.
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    • Niou, E. “An Analysis of the Republic Of China's Security Issues.” Issues and Studies, January 1992.
    • Niou, E. “Constitutional Design in Taiwan: Presidential versus Parliamentary Systems.” The Annals: Chinese Association of Political Science, December 1991.
    • Niou, E., and P. C. Ordeshook. “Realism versus Neoliberalism: A Formulation.” American Journal of Political Science, May 1991.
    • Niou, E. M. S., and P. C. Ordeshook. “Stability in Anarchic International Systems.” American Political Science Review 84, no. 4 (January 1, 1990): 1207–34. https://doi.org/10.2307/1963260.
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    • Niou, E. M. S., and P. C. Ordeshook. “The geographical imperatives of the balance of power in 3-country systems.” Mathematical and Computer Modelling 12, no. 4–5 (January 1, 1989): 519–31. https://doi.org/10.1016/0895-7177(89)90422-6.
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    • Niou, E., and P. C. Ordeshook. “The Imperatives of Geography and the Balance of Power in 3-Country Systems.” Mathematical and Computer Modeling, 1989.
    • Niou, E., and P. C. Ordeshook. “An Experimental Test of a Theory of the Balance of Power.” Simulation and Games, December 1988.
    • Niou, E. M. S. “A note on Nanson's rule.” Public Choice 54, no. 2 (January 1, 1987): 191–93. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00123006.
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    • Niou, E. M. S., and P. C. Ordeshook. “Preventive War and the Balance of Power: A game-theoretic approach.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 31, no. 3 (January 1, 1987): 387–419. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002787031003001.
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    • Niou, E., and P. C. Ordeshook. “A Theory of the Balance of Power.” Journal of Conflict Resolution, December 1986.
    • Niou, E. M. S., and P. C. Ordeshook. “A Theory of the Balance of Power in International Systems.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 30, no. 4 (January 1, 1986): 685–715. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002786030004005.
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    • Niou, E., and P. C. Ordeshook. “Universalism in Congress.” American Journal of Political Science, May 1985.

  • Book Sections

    • Niou, E. M. S. “On local governance in China: From feudalism, centralized bureaucracy, to self-governance.” In Confucian Culture and Democracy, 225–46, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1142/9789814596398_0010.
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    • Lacy, Dean, and Emerson Niou. “Nonseparable Preferences and Issue Packaging in Elections.” In Advances in Political Economy: Instituions, Modeling, and Empirical Analysis, edited by Norman Schofield and Daniel Kselman. Springer, 2013.
    • Niou, Emerson. “The China Factor in Taiwan’s Electoral Politics.” In Democratization in Taiwan: Challenges in Transformation, edited by Jim Meernik and Philip Paolino. Ashgate Publishing, 2008.
    • Niou, Emerson. “論如何培養自治的真精神 [On Cultivating the Spirit of Self-Governance].” In Prospects of Grassroots Democracy in China, edited by Yong Xu and Zengyang Xu, 2007.
    • Niou, E. “Village Elections: Roots of Democratization in China.” In How Asia Votes, edited by John Hsieh and David Newman. Chatham House, 2001.
    • Niou, E. “An Introduction to the Electoral Systems Used in Chinese Village Elections.” In Contemporary China: Approaching the 21st Century, edited by James R. Lilley, Rebecca W. McGinnis, and B Alison Panko. University Press of Maryland, 1999.
    • Niou, E., and P. Ordeshook. “Designing Government for Coherent Domestic and Foreign Policy: Taiwan as a Test Case.” In Consolidating The Third Wave Democracies: Themes and Perspectives, edited by Larry Diamond, Marc Plattner, Yun-han Chu, and Hong-mao Tien. Johns Hopkins University Press, 1997.
    • Niou, E., and P. C. Ordeshook. “Balance of Power versus Collective Security: A Game-Theoretic Analysis.” In Strategic Stability in the Post-Cold War World and the Future of Nuclear Disarmament, edited by Jr Melvin L Best. Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1996.
    • Niou, E. “An Evaluation of the Republic of China’s Foreign Policy Alternatives.” In The Permutation Across the Taiwan Straits, edited by T. J. Cheng, C. Hwang, and S. Wu. Lynn Reiner Press, 1994.
    • Niou, E., and P. C. Ordeshook. “The Prospects for a New International Order based on Collective Security.” In Collective Security beyond the Cold War, edited by George W. Downs. University of Michigan Press, 1994.
    • Niou, E., and P. C. Ordeshook. “Stability in International Systems and The Costs of War.” In Models of Strategic Choices in Politics, edited by P. C. Ordeshook. University of Michigan Press, 1989.
• Teaching & Mentoring
• 

  Recent Courses

  • POLSCI 291-2: Sophomore/Junior Independent Study Political Institutions 2019
  • POLSCI 333S: Democracy and Social Choice 2019
  • POLSCI 493-2: Senior Research Independent Study Political Institutions 2019
  • POLSCI 493-6: Senior Research Independent Study in Political Methodology 2019
  • POLSCI 229: Institutions and Self Governance 2018
  • POLSCI 631L: Introduction to Deductive & Analytical Approaches to Political Phenomena 2018
  • POLSCI 342: Strategy and Politics 2017
• Scholarly, Clinical, & Service Activities
• 

  Presentations & Appearances

  • Bean Voting: The History and Politics of Secret Ballot. November 21, 2013  2013
  • How to Induce People to Reveal Truth. August 17, 2013  2013
  • External Threats and Internal Rivalry: A Theory of Alliance Formation. August 10, 2013  2013
  • Institutions for Poverty Alleviation in China. June 6, 2013  2013
  • Prospects for China's Democratization. May 25, 2013  2013
  • Prospects for China's Democratization. May 24, 2013  2013
  • External Threats and Internal Rivalry: A Theory of Alliance Formation. May 20, 2013  2013
  • Game Theory and Political Science. May 20, 2013  2013
  • How to Induce People to Reveal Truth. May 17, 2013  2013
  • A Comparative Study of Three Social Control Institutions. May 13, 2013  2013
  • Bean Voting: The History and Politics of Secret Ballot. May 4, 2013  2013
  • The China Factor in Taiwanese Politics. April 27, 2013  2013
  • The China Factor in Taiwanese Politics. April 23, 2013  2013
  • The Effect of Foreign Policies on Domestic Opinion and National Security. February 19, 2013  2013
  • Institutions and Governance. December 13, 2012  2012
  • The History and Politics of Secret Ballot. December 8, 2012  2012
  • Bean Voting and the Prospects of China's Political Reform. December 6, 2012  2012
  • History and Politics of Secret Ballo. December 1, 2012  2012
  • Information and Issue Salience in Taiwan's Elections. November 3, 2012  2012
  • Follow the Flag or Trade. September 9, 2012  2012
  • External Threat and Collective Actions. July 14, 2012  2012
  • History and Politics of Secret Ballo. June 26, 2012  2012
  • Institutions and Truthful Revelation of Preferences. June 20, 2012  2012
  • External Threat and Collective Actions. May 23, 2012  2012
  • The China Factor in Taiwanese Politics. March 2, 2012  2012
  • History and Politics of Secret Ballo. January 3, 2012  2012
• 

  Service to the Profession

  • Organizer : New Faces in China Studies Conference. May 4, 2013  2013
  • Organizer : Public Opinions and Security Balance in the Taiwan Strait. April 27, 2013  2013
  • Organizer : The 2012 Methodology Workshop for Chinese Political Scientists, in collaboration with the ICPSR Summer Program. July 9, 2012 - July 25, 2012  2012

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