Scholars@Duke

• Background
• 

  Education, Training, & Certifications

  • Ph.D., University of Texas at Austin 1987
• 

  Duke Appointment History

  • Associate Professor with Tenure, Political Science, Trinity College of Arts & Sciences 1994 - 2002
  • Acting Director, Asian and Middle Eastern Studies, Trinity College of Arts & Sciences 1995 - 1996
  • Assistant Professor, Political Science, Trinity College of Arts & Sciences 1988 - 1993
• Recognition
• 

  In the News

  • NOV 9, 2015

    The Washington Post

    Taiwan and mainland China in talks? Here are the 5 things you need to know about what Taiwanese people are thinking

  • FEB 5, 2015

    Bullock to Retire from Duke Kunshan University
• 

  Awards & Honors

  • Research Grants. Chiang Ching-Kuo Foundation. 2004
  • Research Grants. Chiang Ching-Kuo Foundation. 2000
  • Research Grants. Chiang Ching-Kuo Foundation. 1993
  • Research Grants. Chiang Ching-Kuo Foundation. 1990
• Expertise
• 

  Subject Headings

  • Game Theory
  • International relations
  • Political Systems
• 

  Global Scholarship

  • Research

    • China (Country) 
    • Taiwan (Country) 
• Research
• 

  Selected Grants

  • Enhancement of Taiwan Studies in the United States awarded by College of William and Mary 2014
  • Taiwanese Public Opinion and Security Stability in the Taiwan Strait awarded by Josiah Charles Trent Memorial Foundation 2006 - 2007
  • Conference on Cross-Strait Issues: Conflicting or Complementary approaches (October 2002) awarded by Josiah Charles Trent Memorial Foundation 2002 - 2003
  • (98-0058) The Roots of Democratization: Village Elections in China awarded by Josiah Charles Trent Memorial Foundation 1997 - 1998
  • (96-0066) A Theory of Alliances awarded by  National Science Foundation 1996 - 1997
  • (97-0036) Democratic Institutions in East Asia awarded by Josiah Charles Trent Memorial Foundation 1996 - 1997
  • (93-0081) Principles of Constitutional and International Stability awarded by  National Science Foundation 1993 - 1995
  • (94-0641) Post-cold War Security Challenges in East Asia awarded by Josiah Charles Trent Memorial Foundation 1994
  • (93-0976) Symposium on International Prosperity and Security in the 1990s awarded by Josiah Charles Trent Memorial Foundation 1993 - 1994
  • (92-0493) An Analysis of the New World Order in an Anarchic International System awarded by Josiah Charles Trent Memorial Foundation 1992
  • (91-0421) Travel to Conduct Research on Security Issues in the Taiwan Straits awarded by Josiah Charles Trent Memorial Foundation 1991
  • (89-0114) A Game-Theoretic Analysis of the Balance of Power and the Costs of War awarded by  National Science Foundation 1989 - 1991
  • (89-0376) A Theory of the Balance of Power in the 20th Century awarded by Josiah Charles Trent Memorial Foundation 1989
• Publications & Artistic Works
• 

  Selected Publications

  • Academic Articles

    • Lacy, D, Niou, EMS, Paolino, P, and Rein, RA. "Measuring Preferences for Divided Government: Some Americans Want Divided Government and Vote to Create It (Accepted)." Political Behavior (December 22, 2017): 1-25.  Full Text
    • Hickey, DV, and Niou, EMS. "Taiwan in 2016: A new era?." Asian Survey 57, no. 1 (February 1, 2017): 111-118. (Review)  Full Text
    • Hickey, DV, and Niou, E. "Taiwan in 2015: A Turning Point?." Asian Survey 56, no. 1 (February 1, 2016): 57-67.  Full Text
    • Lacy, D, Niou, E, and Paolino, P. "Measuring Preferences for Divided Government." (2013). (Academic Article)
    • Lacy, D, and Niou, E. "Information and Issue Voting in Taiwan." (2013). (Academic Article)
    • Niou, E, and Zeigler, S. "External Threats and Internal Rivalry: A Theory of Alliance Formation." (2013). (Academic Article)
    • Song, J, and Niou, E. "日本地方财政的财源结构与地方自治的特征 [The Financial Politics of Local Self-Government in Japan]." Fudan University Political Science Review 13 (2013): 172-195.
    • Lacy, D, and Niou, E. "“Information and Heterogeneity in Issue Voting: Evidence from the 2008 Presidential Election in Taiwan,”." Journal of East Asian Studies (2012). (Academic Article)
    • Niou, E. "The China Factor in Taiwanese Politics." Journal of Social Science, University of Tokyo (2012).
    • Kselman, D, and Niou, E. "Protest Voting in Plurality Elections: A Theory of Voter Signaling." Public Choice (June 2010). (Academic Article)
    • Kselman, D, and Niou, E. "Strategic Voting in Plurality Elections." Political Analysis 18, no. 2 (2010): 227-244. (Academic Article)
    • Niou, E. "中國地方自治爲何總不成功 [Why Has the Self-Government Movement Not Been Successful in China? ]." Fudan Univeristy Political Science Review , no. 6 (2008).
    • Benson, B, and Niou, E. "Economic Interdependence and Peace: A Game-Theoretic Analysis." Journal of East Asian Studies 7, no. 1 (March 2007): 35-59. (Academic Article)
    • Niou, E. "彭真与中國地方自治的再起 [Peng Zhen and the Reemergence of Self-Governance in China]." Zhejiang Academic Journal , no. 1 (2007): 99-106.
    • Niou, ES. "清末地方自治運動的反思 [Lessons from the self-government movement in the late Qing Dynasty]." 21 Century Bi-Monthly (December 2006).
    • Chu, C, and Niou, E. "The Strategy of Ambiguity in Electoral Competition." Academia Economic Papers 33, no. 3 (September 2005): 279-302.
    • Niou, E, and Tan, G. "External Threat and Collective Action." Economic Inquiry 43, no. 3 (July 2005). (Academic Article)
    • Niou, E, and Chen, K. "Term Limits as a Response to Incumbency Advantage." Journal of Politics 67, no. 2 (May 2005): 390-406. (Academic Article)
    • Fuh-sheng Hsieh, J, and Niou, EM. "Measuring Taiwanese Public Opinion on Taiwanese Independence ." The China Quarterly 181 (March 2005): 158-168.  Full Text
    • Hsieh, J, and Niou, E. "Measuring Taiwanese Public Opinion on the Taiwan Independence Issue: A Methodological Note." China Quarterly 18, no. 1 (March 2005): 158-168.
    • Niou, E, and Benson, B. "Public Opinion, Foreign Policy, and the Security Balance in the Taiwan Strait." Security Studies 14, no. 2 (2005).
    • Niou, E. "A New Measure of the Preferences on the Independence-Unification Issue in Taiwan." Journal of Asian and African Studies 40, no. 1-2 (2005): 91-104. (Academic Article)
    • Niou, EMS. "Understanding Taiwan Independence and Its Policy Implications." Asian Survey 44, no. 4 (August 2004): 555-567.  Full Text
    • Lacy, D, and Niou, EMS. "A Theory of Economic Sanctions and Issue Linkage: The Roles of Preferences, Information, and Threats." The Journal of Politics 66, no. 1 (February 2004): 25-42.  Full Text
    • Niou, ES. "中外選舉制度的類別及特點 [An Introduction to Voting Methods]." 21st Century Bi-Monthly (February 2004).
    • Niou, ES. "從封建、郡縣、到自治: 論中國地方制度的演變 [On Local Governance in China: From Feudalism, Centralized Bureaucracy, to Self-Government]." Open Times , no. 6 (2004).
    • Niou, E, and Lin, C. "China’s Nuclear Strategy: Minimal or Limited Deterrence?." Studies on Chinese Communism (December 2003). (Academic Article)
    • Niou, E, and Paolino, P. "The Rise of the Opposition Party in Taiwan: Explaining Chen Shui-bian's Victory in the 2000 Presidential Election in Taiwan." Electoral Studies 22, no. 4 (December 2003): 721-740. (Academic Article)
    • Niou, ES. "對中共核威懾的重新審視 [A Reevaluation of China’s Nuclear Deterrence Strategy]." Studies on Chinese Communism (December 2003).
    • Niou, E, and Lin, C. "Analyzing China’s Nuclear Threat to the United States." Mainland China Studies (November 2003). (Academic Article)
    • Niou, E. "經濟因素對中國村民自治發展的影響 [Economic Development and Local Self-Government in China]." 21 Century Bi-Monthly (August 2003).
    • Niou, E, and Lin, C. "Counting China’s ICBMs." Studies on Chinese Communism 37, no. 7 (July 2003): 80-90. (Academic Article)
    • Niou, ES, and Lin, C. "中共洲際導彈軍力的建設與實力 [Development of ICBMs in China]." Studies on Chinese Communism 37, no. 7 (July 2003): 80-90.
    • Lin, C, and Niou, E. "論中共嚇阻美軍介入台海衝突的軍事準備及其影響 [Assessing China's Military Preparation to Deter the US from Intervening in the Taiwan Strait Conflict]." Mainland China Studies (2003).
    • Niou, E. "患難相恤: 論中國民間的自治與扶貧 [Self-Governance and Poverty Alleviation in China]." 21-Century E-Journal (2003).
    • Niou, E. "Strategic Voting under Plurality and Runoff Rules?." Journal of Theoretical Politics 13, no. 2 (April 2001): 209-227. (Academic Article)
    • Lacy, D, and Niou, E. "全民公決的若干問題 [A Problem with Referendums]." Journal of Theoretical Politics (January 2000).
    • Lacy, D, and Niou, EM. "A Problem with Referendums." Journal of Theoretical Politics 12, no. 1 (January 2000): 5-31.  Full Text
    • Niou, E, and Ordeshook, P. "Return of the Luddites." International Security 24, no. 2 (October 1999): 84-96. (Academic Article)
    • Ordeshook, P, and Niou, E. "Alliances and Federations." Constitutional Political Economy (1999).
    • Niou, EMS, and Ordeshook, PC. "Alliances versus federations: An extension of riker's analysis of federal formation." Constitutional Political Economy 9, no. 4 (December 1, 1998): 271-288.
    • Lacy, D, and Niou, EMS. "Elections in Double-Member Districts with Nonseparable Voter Preferences." Journal of Theoretical Politics 10, no. 1 (January 1998): 89-110.  Full Text
    • Niou, E, Hsieh, J, and Lacy, D. "Retrospective and Prospective Voting in a One-Party Dominance Democracy: Taiwan's 1996 Presidential Election." Public Choice (1998). (Academic Article)
    • Brehm, J, and Niou, EMS. "A comparative analysis of the control systems used in the former Soviet Union and Communist China." Journal of Theoretical Politics 9, no. 1 (January 1, 1997): 107-130.
    • Niou, E, Hsieh, J, and Paolino, P. "Strategic Voting in the 1994 Taipei City Mayoral Election." Electoral Studies (1997). (Academic Article)
    • Niou, E, and Hsieh, J. "Taiwan's March 1996 Elections." Electoral Studies 15, no. 4 (November 1996): 545-550. (Academic Article)
    • Niou, E, and Huang, T. "Party System and Democratic Consolidation: The Case of Taiwan." American Asian Review (October 1996). (Academic Article)
    • Niou, E, Hsieh, J, and Lacy, D. "Economic Voting in the 1994 Taiwan Elections." American Asian Review (July 1996). (Academic Article)
    • Feaver, PD, and Niou, EMS. "Managing Nuclear Proliferation: Condemn, Strike, or Assist?." International Studies Quarterly 40, no. 2 (June 1996): 209-209.  Full Text
    • Huang, T, and Niou, EMS. "Electoral Politics in Taiwan." Asian Affairs: An American Review 23, no. 2 (June 1996): 128-138.  Full Text
    • Brehm, J, and Niou, E. "Police Patrol vs. Self-Policing: A Comparative Analysis of the Control Systems Used in the Ex-Soviet Union and the Communist China." Journal of Theoretical Politics (1996).
    • Hsieh, J, and Niou, E. "Issue Voting in the Republic of China on Taiwan's 1992 Legislative Yuan Election." International Political Science Review (1996).
    • Niou, E, and Feaver, P. "Managing Nuclear Proliferation: What Makes Sense?." International Studies Quarterly (1996). (Academic Article)
    • Niou, E, and Hsieh, J. "Salient Issues in Taiwan's Electoral Politics." Electoral Studies (1996). (Academic Article)
    • Niou, ES, Hsieh, JF, and Lin, H. "民國八十三年省市長選舉中之議題投票：理性抉擇理論之分析 [Issue Voting in the 1994 Gubernatorial and Mayoral Elections: An Application of Rational Choice Approach]." Journal of Electoral Studies (1995).
    • Niou, E, and Ordeshook, PC. "A Game-Theoretic Analysis of Sun Tzu's The Art of War." Journal of Peace Research 31, no. 2 (May 1994). (Academic Article)
    • Niou, EMS, and Ordeshook, PC. "A Game-Theoretic Interpretation of Sun Tzu's." Journal of Peace Research 31, no. 2 (May 1994): 161-174.  Full Text
    • Niou, E, and Cox, G. "Seat Bonuses under the Single Non-Transferable Vote for Large Parties: Evidence from Japan and Taiwan." Comparative Politics (January 1994). (Academic Article)
    • Niou, E, and Ordeshook, PC. "Less Filling, Tastes Great: The Realist-Neoliberal Debate." World Politics (January 1994). (Academic Article)
    • Niou, E, and Ordeshook, PC. "Alliances in Anarchic International Systems." International Studies Quarterly (1994). (Academic Article)
    • Niou, E, and Tan, G. "An Analysis of Dr. Sun Yet-sen's Self-Assessment Scheme for Land Policy." Public Choice 78, no. 1 (January 1994). (Academic Article)
    • Niou, E, and Ordeshook, PC. "Notes on Constitutional Change in the Republic of China on Taiwan." Chinese Political Science Review (December 1993). (Academic Article)
    • Niou, E, Ordeshook, PC, and Tan, G. "Taiwanese Investment in Mainland China as a Tool of Foreign Policy." Issues and Studies (August 1992). (Academic Article)
    • Niou, E. "An Analysis of the Republic Of China's Security Issues." Issues and Studies (January 1992). (Academic Article)
    • Niou, EMS, and Ordeshook, PC. "A Game Theoretic Analysis of the Republic of China's Emerging Electoral System." International Political Science Review 13, no. 1 (January 1992): 59-79.  Full Text
    • Niou, E. "Constitutional Design in Taiwan: Presidential versus Parliamentary Systems." The Annals: Chinese Association of Political Science (December 1991). (Academic Article)
    • Niou, E, and Ordeshook, PC. "Realism versus Neoliberalism: A Formulation." American Journal of Political Science (May 1991). (Academic Article)
    • Niou, E, and Ordeshook, PC. "Stability in Anarchic International Systems." American Political Science Review (December 1990). (Academic Article)
    • Niou, E, and Ordeshook, PC. "The Imperatives of Geography and the Balance of Power in 3-Country Systems." Mathematical and Computer Modeling (1989). (Academic Article)
    • Niou, EM, and Ordeshook, PC. "The geographical imperatives of the balance of power in 3-country systems." Mathematical and Computer Modelling 12, no. 4-5 (1989): 519-531.  Full Text
    • Niou, E, and Ordeshook, PC. "An Experimental Test of a Theory of the Balance of Power." Simulation and Games (December 1988). (Academic Article)
    • Niou, EMS, and Ordeshook, PC. "Preventive War and the Balance of Power." Journal of Conflict Resolution 31, no. 3 (September 1987): 387-419.  Full Text
    • Niou, E. "A Note on Nanson's Rule." Public Choice (June 1987). (Academic Article)
    • Niou, E, and Ordeshook, PC. "A Theory of the Balance of Power." Journal of Conflict Resolution (December 1986). (Academic Article)
    • Niou, EMS, and Ordeshook, PC. "A Theory of the Balance of Power in International Systems." Journal of Conflict Resolution 30, no. 4 (December 1986): 685-715.  Full Text
    • Niou, E, and Ordeshook, PC. "Universalism in Congress." American Journal of Political Science (May 1985). (Academic Article)

  • Books

    • Niou, E, and Ordeshook, P. Strategy and Politics. Routledge, 2015.
    • Niou, E. Bean Voting: The History and Politics of Secret Ballot (in Chinese). People’s University Press, 2014.
    • Niou, E. An Introduction to Community Compacts in China (in Chinese). Chinese Society Press, 2014.
    • Niou, E. An Introduction to Community Compacts in China (in Chinese). Chinese Society Press, 2005.
    • Niou, E, and Ordeshook, PC. The Balance of Power: Stability in International Systems. Cambridge University Press, 1989.

  • Book Sections

    • Niou, EMS. "On local governance in China: From feudalism, centralized bureaucracy, to self-governance." In Confucian Culture and Democracy, 225-246. January 1, 2014.  Full Text
    • Lacy, D, and Niou, E. "Nonseparable Preferences and Issue Packaging in Elections." In Advances in Political Economy: Instituions, Modeling, and Empirical Analysis, edited by N Schofield and D Kselman. Springer, 2013.
    • Niou, E. "The China Factor in Taiwan’s Electoral Politics." In Democratization in Taiwan: Challenges in Transformation, edited by J Meernik and P Paolino. Ashgate Publishing, 2008.
    • Niou, E. "論如何培養自治的真精神 [On Cultivating the Spirit of Self-Governance]." In Prospects of Grassroots Democracy in China, edited by Y Xu and Z Xu. 2007.
    • Niou, E. "Village Elections: Roots of Democratization in China." In How Asia Votes, edited by J Hsieh and D Newman. Chatham House, 2001.
    • Niou, E. "An Introduction to the Electoral Systems Used in Chinese Village Elections." In Contemporary China: Approaching the 21st Century, edited by JR Lilley, RW McGinnis, and BA Panko. University Press of Maryland, 1999.
    • Niou, E, and Ordeshook, P. "Designing Government for Coherent Domestic and Foreign Policy: Taiwan as a Test Case." In Consolidating The Third Wave Democracies: Themes and Perspectives, edited by L Diamond, M Plattner, Y-H Chu, and H-M Tien. Johns Hopkins University Press, 1997.
    • Niou, E, and Ordeshook, PC. "Balance of Power versus Collective Security: A Game-Theoretic Analysis." In Strategic Stability in the Post-Cold War World and the Future of Nuclear Disarmament, edited by J Melvin L Best. Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1996.
    • Niou, E, and Ordeshook, PC. "The Prospects for a New International Order based on Collective Security." In Collective Security beyond the Cold War, edited by GW Downs. University of Michigan Press, 1994.
    • Niou, E. "An Evaluation of the Republic of China’s Foreign Policy Alternatives." In The Permutation Across the Taiwan Straits, edited by TJ Cheng, C Hwang, and S Wu. Lynn Reiner Press, 1994.
    • Niou, E, and Ordeshook, PC. "Stability in International Systems and The Costs of War." In Models of Strategic Choices in Politics, edited by PC Ordeshook. University of Michigan Press, 1989.
• Teaching & Mentoring
• 

  Recent Courses

  • POLSCI 229: Institutions and Self Governance 2018
  • POLSCI 291-2: Sophomore/Junior Independent Study Political Institutions 2018
  • POLSCI 631L: Introduction to Deductive & Analytical Approaches to Political Phenomena 2018
  • POLSCI 333S: Democracy and Social Choice 2017
  • POLSCI 342: Strategy and Politics 2017
  • POLSCI 493-2: Senior Research Independent Study Political Institutions 2017
  • HOUSECS 59: House Course 2016
  • POLSCI 324: Chinese Politics 2016
  • POLSCI 799: Special Readings 2016
• Scholarly, Clinical, & Service Activities
• 

  Presentations & Appearances

  • Bean Voting: The History and Politics of Secret Ballot. November 21, 2013  2013
  • How to Induce People to Reveal Truth. August 17, 2013  2013
  • External Threats and Internal Rivalry: A Theory of Alliance Formation. August 10, 2013  2013
  • Institutions for Poverty Alleviation in China. June 6, 2013  2013
  • Prospects for China's Democratization. May 25, 2013  2013
  • Prospects for China's Democratization. May 24, 2013  2013
  • External Threats and Internal Rivalry: A Theory of Alliance Formation. May 20, 2013  2013
  • Game Theory and Political Science. May 20, 2013  2013
  • How to Induce People to Reveal Truth. May 17, 2013  2013
  • A Comparative Study of Three Social Control Institutions. May 13, 2013  2013
  • Bean Voting: The History and Politics of Secret Ballot. May 4, 2013  2013
  • The China Factor in Taiwanese Politics. April 27, 2013  2013
  • The China Factor in Taiwanese Politics. April 23, 2013  2013
  • The Effect of Foreign Policies on Domestic Opinion and National Security. February 19, 2013  2013
  • Institutions and Governance. December 13, 2012  2012
  • The History and Politics of Secret Ballot. December 8, 2012  2012
  • Bean Voting and the Prospects of China's Political Reform. December 6, 2012  2012
  • History and Politics of Secret Ballo. December 1, 2012  2012
  • Information and Issue Salience in Taiwan's Elections. November 3, 2012  2012
  • Follow the Flag or Trade. September 9, 2012  2012
  • External Threat and Collective Actions. July 14, 2012  2012
  • History and Politics of Secret Ballo. June 26, 2012  2012
  • Institutions and Truthful Revelation of Preferences. June 20, 2012  2012
  • External Threat and Collective Actions. May 23, 2012  2012
  • The China Factor in Taiwanese Politics. March 2, 2012  2012
  • History and Politics of Secret Ballo. January 3, 2012  2012
• 

  Service to the Profession

  • Organizer : New Faces in China Studies Conference. May 4, 2013  2013
  • Organizer : Public Opinions and Security Balance in the Taiwan Strait. April 27, 2013  2013
  • Organizer : The 2012 Methodology Workshop for Chinese Political Scientists, in collaboration with the ICPSR Summer Program. July 9, 2012 - July 25, 2012  2012

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