Scholars@Duke
Emerson S. Niou

Emerson S. Niou CV

Professor of Political Science
Political Science
niou@duke.edu
Box 90204, Durham, NC 27708-0204
140 Science Drive, 273 Gross, Box 90204, Durham, NC 27708
Office hours by appointment only  
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Selected Publications

Entente versus Alliance: When Should States Be Friends but Not Allies?

Journal Article Defence and Peace Economics · January 1, 2023 When faced with a common threat, states have various alignment choices. Formal alliances offer explicit military obligations of support. Others, such as the Triple Entente that preceded World War I, are more ambiguous understandings. These entente-like ali ... Full text Open Access Cite

Measuring ‘closeness’ in 3-candidate elections: Methodology and an application to strategic voting

Journal Article Electoral Studies · December 1, 2020 Past research suggests that voter behavior is influenced by perceptions of electoral competitiveness. For example, when an election is perceived to be close, voters will be more likely to turnout and/or cast strategic votes for their second-most preferred ... Full text Open Access Cite

External threat, internal rivalry, and alliance formation

Journal Article Journal of Politics · April 1, 2019 History reveals enemies often ally to confront a common threat. In such competitive coalitions actors must balance the simultaneous risk of distrust of their ally against external danger. We model this interactive relationship and generate several novel ou ... Full text Open Access Cite

Measuring Preferences for Divided Government: Some Americans Want Divided Government and Vote to Create It

Journal Article Political Behavior · March 15, 2019 Tests of theories of the electoral origins of divided government hinge on the proper measurement of voter preferences for divided government. Deriving preferences for divided government from voters’ ideological positions or responses to the standard Americ ... Full text Open Access Cite

Taiwan in 2016: A new era?

Journal Article Asian Survey · February 1, 2017 The opposition Democratic Progressive Party won decisive victories in the Legislative Yuan and presidential elections. Despite these victories, 2016 proved to be a difficult year for Taiwan's new ruling party. As 2016 drew to a close, polls showed that mos ... Full text Cite

Taiwan in 2015: A turning point?

Journal Article Asian Survey · January 1, 2016 In 2015, Taipei's relations with Washington moved forward in parallel with the improvements in cross-Strait relations initiated in 2008. Perhaps most notable was President Ma Ying-jeou's summit meeting with China's President Xi Jinping. Despite gains in ex ... Full text Cite

Strategy and Politics: An Introduction to Game Theory

Book · January 1, 2015 Strategy and Politics: An Introduction to Game Theory is designed to introduce students with no background in formal theory to the application of game theory to modeling political processes. This accessible text covers the essential aspects of game theory ... Full text Cite

On local governance in China: From feudalism, centralized bureaucracy, to self-governance

Chapter · January 1, 2014 Prior to the introduction of Western political thoughts on local governance to China in the 19th century, for centuries Chinese intellectuals had also been engaging in extensive debates on the advantages and disadvantages of various forms of local governan ... Full text Cite

The China Factor in Taiwanese Politics

Journal Article Journal of Social Science, University of Tokyo · 2012 Cite

Strategic Voting in Plurality Elections

Journal Article Political Analysis · 2010 This paper extends McKelvey and Ordeshook’s (1972) Calculus of Voting, providing a direct derivation of the conditions under which voters will vote strategically: choose their second-most preferred candidate in order to prevent their least-preferred candid ... Cite

Entente versus Alliance: When Should States Be Friends but Not Allies?

Journal Article Defence and Peace Economics · January 1, 2023 When faced with a common threat, states have various alignment choices. Formal alliances offer explicit military obligations of support. Others, such as the Triple Entente that preceded World War I, are more ambiguous understandings. These entente-like ali ... Full text Open Access Cite

Measuring ‘closeness’ in 3-candidate elections: Methodology and an application to strategic voting

Journal Article Electoral Studies · December 1, 2020 Past research suggests that voter behavior is influenced by perceptions of electoral competitiveness. For example, when an election is perceived to be close, voters will be more likely to turnout and/or cast strategic votes for their second-most preferred ... Full text Open Access Cite

External threat, internal rivalry, and alliance formation

Journal Article Journal of Politics · April 1, 2019 History reveals enemies often ally to confront a common threat. In such competitive coalitions actors must balance the simultaneous risk of distrust of their ally against external danger. We model this interactive relationship and generate several novel ou ... Full text Open Access Cite

Measuring Preferences for Divided Government: Some Americans Want Divided Government and Vote to Create It

Journal Article Political Behavior · March 15, 2019 Tests of theories of the electoral origins of divided government hinge on the proper measurement of voter preferences for divided government. Deriving preferences for divided government from voters’ ideological positions or responses to the standard Americ ... Full text Open Access Cite

Taiwan in 2016: A new era?

Journal Article Asian Survey · February 1, 2017 The opposition Democratic Progressive Party won decisive victories in the Legislative Yuan and presidential elections. Despite these victories, 2016 proved to be a difficult year for Taiwan's new ruling party. As 2016 drew to a close, polls showed that mos ... Full text Cite

Taiwan in 2015: A turning point?

Journal Article Asian Survey · January 1, 2016 In 2015, Taipei's relations with Washington moved forward in parallel with the improvements in cross-Strait relations initiated in 2008. Perhaps most notable was President Ma Ying-jeou's summit meeting with China's President Xi Jinping. Despite gains in ex ... Full text Cite

Strategy and Politics: An Introduction to Game Theory

Book · January 1, 2015 Strategy and Politics: An Introduction to Game Theory is designed to introduce students with no background in formal theory to the application of game theory to modeling political processes. This accessible text covers the essential aspects of game theory ... Full text Cite

On local governance in China: From feudalism, centralized bureaucracy, to self-governance

Chapter · January 1, 2014 Prior to the introduction of Western political thoughts on local governance to China in the 19th century, for centuries Chinese intellectuals had also been engaging in extensive debates on the advantages and disadvantages of various forms of local governan ... Full text Cite

The China Factor in Taiwanese Politics

Journal Article Journal of Social Science, University of Tokyo · 2012 Cite

Strategic Voting in Plurality Elections

Journal Article Political Analysis · 2010 This paper extends McKelvey and Ordeshook’s (1972) Calculus of Voting, providing a direct derivation of the conditions under which voters will vote strategically: choose their second-most preferred candidate in order to prevent their least-preferred candid ... Cite

Economic Interdependence and Peace: A Game-Theoretic Analysis

Journal Article Journal of East Asian Studies · March 2007 Most of the contemporary policy debate regarding economic interdependence and peace has focused on devising responses either in favor of or in opposition to the long prevailing notion that trade is positively and unconditionally correlated with peace. The ... Cite

The Strategy of Ambiguity in Electoral Competition

Journal Article Academia Economic Papers · September 2005 Cite

External Threat and Collective Action

Journal Article Economic Inquiry · July 2005 Cite

Term Limits as a Response to Incumbency Advantage

Journal Article Journal of Politics · May 2005 Cite

Measuring Taiwanese public opinion on Taiwanese independence

Journal Article China Quarterly · March 1, 2005 Whether there will be a war between China and Taiwan depends very much upon whether Taiwan will declare independence. And given that Taiwan is a democracy now, public opinion on the issue will certainly affect the political leaders' decision to move one wa ... Cite

A New Measure of the Preferences on the Independence-Unification Issue in Taiwan

Journal Article Journal of Asian and African Studies · 2005 Cite

Understanding Taiwan independence and its policy implications

Journal Article Asian Survey · July 1, 2004 Taiwan's democratization has placed Taiwan independence as one of the most important issues for its domestic politics and for the security balance in the Taiwan Strait. Surveys have been conducted regularly to track shifts in Taiwanese public sentiment on ... Full text Cite

中外選舉制度的類別及特點 [An Introduction to Voting Methods]

Journal Article 21st Century Bi-Monthly · February 2004 Cite

A Theory of Economic Sanctions and Issue Linkage: The Roles of Preferences, Information, and Threats

Journal Article Journal of Politics · February 1, 2004 A realistic theory of economic sanctions should be built on the facts that sanctions are a game of issue linkage involving two or more issues, players may not know each other's preferences for the outcome of the game, and threatening sanctions may be as im ... Full text Cite

對中共核威懾的重新審視 [A Reevaluation of China’s Nuclear Deterrence Strategy]

Journal Article Studies on Chinese Communism · December 2003 Cite

China’s Nuclear Strategy: Minimal or Limited Deterrence?

Journal Article Studies on Chinese Communism · December 2003 Cite

Analyzing China’s Nuclear Threat to the United States

Journal Article Mainland China Studies · November 2003 Cite

Term Limits as a Response to Incumbency Advantage

Journal Article · September 18, 2003 Cite

中共洲際導彈軍力的建設與實力 [Development of ICBMs in China]

Journal Article Studies on Chinese Communism · July 2003 Cite

Counting China’s ICBMs

Journal Article Studies on Chinese Communism · July 2003 Cite

Strategic Voting under Plurality and Runoff Rules?

Journal Article Journal of Theoretical Politics · April 2001 Cite

A problem with referendums

Journal Article Journal of Theoretical Politics · January 1, 2000 When some voters have nonseparable preferences across multiple binary issues, majority rule may not select a Condorcet winning set of outcomes when one exists, and the social choice may be a Condorcet loser or Pareto-dominated by every other set of outcome ... Full text Cite

全民公決的若干問題 [A Problem with Referendums]

Journal Article Journal of Theoretical Politics · January 2000 Cite

Return of the Luddites

Journal Article International Security · October 1999 Cite

Alliances and Federations

Journal Article Constitutional Political Economy · 1999 Cite

Elections in double-member districts with nonseparable voter preferences

Journal Article Journal of Theoretical Politics · January 1, 1998 We derive Nash equilibrium candidate strategies in a double-member district election when voters have nonseparable preferences for candidates in a single-dimensional policy space. When candidates are elected simultaneously, nonseparable voter preferences c ... Full text Cite

Alliances versus federations: An extension of riker's analysis of federal formation

Journal Article Constitutional Political Economy · January 1, 1998 This essay explores the distinction between federations and alliances and asks the question: When will states choose to federate rather than ally? William Poker argues that a necessary condition for a federal state's formation is that those offering the fe ... Full text Cite

A comparative analysis of the control systems used in the former Soviet Union and Communist China

Journal Article Journal of Theoretical Politics · January 1, 1997 The policing systems used in the former Soviet Union and Communist China are prototypes of control systems found in many political systems. The system in the former Soviet Union is a variant on the 'police patrol', while the system in Communist China is a ... Full text Cite

Strategic Voting in the 1994 Taipei City Mayoral Election

Journal Article Electoral Studies · 1997 Cite

Taiwan's March 1996 Elections

Journal Article Electoral Studies · November 1996 Cite

Party System and Democratic Consolidation: The Case of Taiwan

Journal Article American Asian Review · October 1996 Cite

Economic Voting in the 1994 Taiwan Elections

Journal Article American Asian Review · July 1996 Cite

Electoral politics in Taiwan

Journal Article Asian Affairs · January 1, 1996 Full text Cite

Managing nuclear proliferation: Condemn, strike, or assist?

Journal Article International Studies Quarterly · January 1, 1996 The nonproliferation regime, which denies countries access to critical materials, makes it more likely that defiant proliferators will develop unsafe arsenals. In order to manage proliferation, the U.S. could continue to uphold the regime, hoping to persua ... Full text Cite

Managing Nuclear Proliferation: What Makes Sense?

Journal Article International Studies Quarterly · 1996 Cite

Issue Voting in the Republic of China on Taiwan's 1992 Legislative Yuan Election

Journal Article International Political Science Review · 1996 Cite

Salient Issues in Taiwan's Electoral Politics

Journal Article Electoral Studies · 1996 Cite

A Game-Theoretic Analysis of Sun Tzu's The Art of War

Journal Article Journal of Peace Research · May 1994 Cite

A Game-Theoretic Interpretation of Sun Tzu's: The Art of War

Journal Article Journal of Peace Research · January 1, 1994 Full text Cite

Less Filling, Tastes Great: The Realist-Neoliberal Debate

Journal Article World Politics · January 1994 Cite

Alliances in Anarchic International Systems

Journal Article International Studies Quarterly · 1994 Cite

Notes on Constitutional Change in the Republic of China on Taiwan

Journal Article Chinese Political Science Review · December 1993 Cite

Taiwanese Investment in Mainland China as a Tool of Foreign Policy

Journal Article Issues and Studies · August 1992 Cite

A Game Theoretic Analysis of the Republic of China's Emerging Electoral System

Journal Article International Political Science Review · 1992 Cite

An Analysis of the Republic Of China's Security Issues

Journal Article Issues and Studies · January 1992 Cite

Constitutional Design in Taiwan: Presidential versus Parliamentary Systems

Journal Article The Annals: Chinese Association of Political Science · December 1991 Cite

Realism versus Neoliberalism: A Formulation

Journal Article American Journal of Political Science · May 1991 Cite

Stability in Anarchic International Systems

Journal Article American Political Science Review · December 1990 Cite

The geographical imperatives of the balance of power in 3-country systems

Journal Article Mathematical and Computer Modelling · January 1, 1989 This paper extends a cooperative game-theoretic model of the balance of power in anarchic international systems to include consideration of the asymmetry which geography occasions in the offensive and defensive capabilities of countries. The two substantiv ... Full text Cite

The Imperatives of Geography and the Balance of Power in 3-Country Systems

Journal Article Mathematical and Computer Modeling · 1989 Cite

An Experimental Test of a Theory of the Balance of Power

Journal Article Simulation and Games · December 1988 Cite

Preventive War and the Balance of Power: A Game-Theoretic Analysis

Journal Article Journal of Conflict Resolution · September 1987 Cite

A Note on Nanson's Rule

Journal Article Public Choice · June 1987 Cite

A Theory of the Balance of Power

Journal Article Journal of Conflict Resolution · December 1986 Cite

A Theory of the Balance of Power in International Systems

Journal Article Journal of Conflict Resolution · January 1, 1986 Attempts at incorporating the assumption that national leaders pursue clearly defined objectives, and at applying the theory of cooperative games to the analysis of international systems, have led to little success in formalizing the concept of balance of ... Full text Cite

Universalism in Congress

Journal Article American Journal of Political Science · May 1985 Cite