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Response of hydrology to climate change in the southern Appalachian Mountains using Bayesian inference

Publication ,  Journal Article
Wu, W; Clark, JS; Vose, JM
Published in: Hydrological Processes
February 15, 2014

Predicting long-term consequences of climate change on hydrologic processes has been limited due to the needs to accommodate the uncertainties in hydrological measurements for calibration, and to account for the uncertainties in the models that would ingest those calibrations and uncertainties in climate predictions as basis for hydrological predictions. We implemented a hierarchical Bayesian (HB) analysis to coherently admit multiple data sources and uncertainties including data inputs, parameters, and model structures to identify the potential consequences of climate change on soil moisture and streamflow at the head watersheds ranging from low to high elevations in the southern Appalachian region of the United States. We have considered climate change scenarios based on three greenhouse gas emission scenarios of the Interovernmental Panel on Climate Change: A2, A1B, and B1 emission scenarios. Full predictive distributions based on HB models are capable of providing rich information and facilitating the summarization of prediction uncertainties. With predictive uncertainties taken into account, the most pronounced change in soil moisture and streamflow would occur under the A2 scenario at both low and high elevations, followed by the A1B scenario and then by the B1 scenario. Uncertainty in the change of soil moisture is less than that of streamflow for each season, especially at high elevations. A reduction of soil moisture in summer and fall, a reduction or slight increase of streamflow in summer, and an increase of streamflow in winter are predicted for all three scenarios at both low and high elevations. The hydrological predictions with quantified uncertainties from a HB model could aid more-informed water resource management in developing mitigation plans and dealing with water security under climate change. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Duke Scholars

Published In

Hydrological Processes

DOI

EISSN

1099-1085

ISSN

0885-6087

Publication Date

February 15, 2014

Volume

28

Issue

4

Start / End Page

1616 / 1626

Related Subject Headings

  • Environmental Engineering
  • 4005 Civil engineering
  • 3709 Physical geography and environmental geoscience
  • 3707 Hydrology
  • 0907 Environmental Engineering
  • 0905 Civil Engineering
  • 0406 Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience
 

Citation

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Wu, W., Clark, J. S., & Vose, J. M. (2014). Response of hydrology to climate change in the southern Appalachian Mountains using Bayesian inference. Hydrological Processes, 28(4), 1616–1626. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9677
Wu, W., J. S. Clark, and J. M. Vose. “Response of hydrology to climate change in the southern Appalachian Mountains using Bayesian inference.” Hydrological Processes 28, no. 4 (February 15, 2014): 1616–26. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9677.
Wu W, Clark JS, Vose JM. Response of hydrology to climate change in the southern Appalachian Mountains using Bayesian inference. Hydrological Processes. 2014 Feb 15;28(4):1616–26.
Wu, W., et al. “Response of hydrology to climate change in the southern Appalachian Mountains using Bayesian inference.” Hydrological Processes, vol. 28, no. 4, Feb. 2014, pp. 1616–26. Scopus, doi:10.1002/hyp.9677.
Wu W, Clark JS, Vose JM. Response of hydrology to climate change in the southern Appalachian Mountains using Bayesian inference. Hydrological Processes. 2014 Feb 15;28(4):1616–1626.
Journal cover image

Published In

Hydrological Processes

DOI

EISSN

1099-1085

ISSN

0885-6087

Publication Date

February 15, 2014

Volume

28

Issue

4

Start / End Page

1616 / 1626

Related Subject Headings

  • Environmental Engineering
  • 4005 Civil engineering
  • 3709 Physical geography and environmental geoscience
  • 3707 Hydrology
  • 0907 Environmental Engineering
  • 0905 Civil Engineering
  • 0406 Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience