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Implications of changes in households and living arrangements for future home-based care needs and costs for disabled elders in China.

Publication ,  Journal Article
Zeng, Y; Chen, H; Wang, Z; Land, KC
Published in: J Aging Health
April 2015

OBJECTIVES: To better understand future home-based care needs and costs for disabled elders in China. METHOD: To further develop and apply the ProFamy extended cohort-component method and the most recent census and survey data. RESULTS: (a) Chinese disabled elders and the annual growth rate of the percentage of national gross domestic product (GDP) devoted to home-based care costs for disabled elders will increase much more rapidly than the growth of total elderly population; (b) home-based care needs and costs for disabled oldest-old aged 80+ will increase much faster than that for disabled young-old aged 65-79 after 2030; (c) disabled unmarried elders living alone and their home-based care costs increase substantially faster than those disabled unmarried elders living with children; (d) percent of rural disabled oldest-old will be substantially higher than that of rural population after 2030; (e) sensitivity analyses show that possible changes in mortality and elderly disability status are the major direct factors affecting home-based care needs and costs; (f) caregivers resources under the universal two-child policy will be substantially better than that under the rigorous fertility policy unchanged. DISCUSSION: We discuss policy recommendations concerning pathways to healthy aging with relatively reduced care costs, including reductions of the prevalence of disability, gender equality, the universal two-child policy and resources of caregivers, encouragements of rural-to-urban family migration and elder's residential proximity to their adult children, and remarriages of not-married elders.

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Published In

J Aging Health

DOI

EISSN

1552-6887

Publication Date

April 2015

Volume

27

Issue

3

Start / End Page

519 / 550

Location

United States

Related Subject Headings

  • Residence Characteristics
  • Male
  • Humans
  • Home Care Services
  • Health Services Needs and Demand
  • Health Care Costs
  • Gerontology
  • Forecasting
  • Female
  • Family Characteristics
 

Citation

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ICMJE
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Zeng, Y., Chen, H., Wang, Z., & Land, K. C. (2015). Implications of changes in households and living arrangements for future home-based care needs and costs for disabled elders in China. J Aging Health, 27(3), 519–550. https://doi.org/10.1177/0898264314552690
Zeng, Yi, Huashuai Chen, Zhenglian Wang, and Kenneth C. Land. “Implications of changes in households and living arrangements for future home-based care needs and costs for disabled elders in China.J Aging Health 27, no. 3 (April 2015): 519–50. https://doi.org/10.1177/0898264314552690.
Zeng, Yi, et al. “Implications of changes in households and living arrangements for future home-based care needs and costs for disabled elders in China.J Aging Health, vol. 27, no. 3, Apr. 2015, pp. 519–50. Pubmed, doi:10.1177/0898264314552690.
Journal cover image

Published In

J Aging Health

DOI

EISSN

1552-6887

Publication Date

April 2015

Volume

27

Issue

3

Start / End Page

519 / 550

Location

United States

Related Subject Headings

  • Residence Characteristics
  • Male
  • Humans
  • Home Care Services
  • Health Services Needs and Demand
  • Health Care Costs
  • Gerontology
  • Forecasting
  • Female
  • Family Characteristics