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Uncertainty, imprecision, and the precautionary principle in climate change assessment.

Publication ,  Journal Article
Borsuk, ME; Tomassini, L
Published in: Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research
January 2005

Statistical decision theory can provide useful support for climate change decisions made under conditions of uncertainty. However, the probability distributions used to calculate expected costs in decision theory are themselves subject to uncertainty, disagreement, or ambiguity in their specification. This imprecision can be described using sets of probability measures, from which upper and lower bounds on expectations can be calculated. However, many representations, or classes, of probability measures are possible. We describe six of the more useful classes and demonstrate how each may be used to represent climate change uncertainties. When expected costs are specified by bounds, rather than precise values, the conventional decision criterion of minimum expected cost is insufficient to reach a unique decision. Alternative criteria are required, and the criterion of minimum upper expected cost may be desirable because it is consistent with the precautionary principle. Using simple climate and economics models as an example, we determine the carbon dioxide emissions levels that have minimum upper expected cost for each of the selected classes. There can be wide differences in these emissions levels and their associated costs, emphasizing the need for care when selecting an appropriate class.

Duke Scholars

Published In

Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research

DOI

EISSN

1996-9732

ISSN

0273-1223

Publication Date

January 2005

Volume

52

Issue

6

Start / End Page

213 / 225

Related Subject Headings

  • Uncertainty
  • Temperature
  • Risk Assessment
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Greenhouse Effect
  • Environmental Engineering
  • Costs and Cost Analysis
  • Carbon Dioxide
  • Air Pollution
 

Citation

APA
Chicago
ICMJE
MLA
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Borsuk, M. E., & Tomassini, L. (2005). Uncertainty, imprecision, and the precautionary principle in climate change assessment. Water Science and Technology : A Journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research, 52(6), 213–225. https://doi.org/10.2166/wst.2005.0170
Borsuk, M. E., and L. Tomassini. “Uncertainty, imprecision, and the precautionary principle in climate change assessment.Water Science and Technology : A Journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research 52, no. 6 (January 2005): 213–25. https://doi.org/10.2166/wst.2005.0170.
Borsuk ME, Tomassini L. Uncertainty, imprecision, and the precautionary principle in climate change assessment. Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research. 2005 Jan;52(6):213–25.
Borsuk, M. E., and L. Tomassini. “Uncertainty, imprecision, and the precautionary principle in climate change assessment.Water Science and Technology : A Journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research, vol. 52, no. 6, Jan. 2005, pp. 213–25. Epmc, doi:10.2166/wst.2005.0170.
Borsuk ME, Tomassini L. Uncertainty, imprecision, and the precautionary principle in climate change assessment. Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research. 2005 Jan;52(6):213–225.

Published In

Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research

DOI

EISSN

1996-9732

ISSN

0273-1223

Publication Date

January 2005

Volume

52

Issue

6

Start / End Page

213 / 225

Related Subject Headings

  • Uncertainty
  • Temperature
  • Risk Assessment
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Greenhouse Effect
  • Environmental Engineering
  • Costs and Cost Analysis
  • Carbon Dioxide
  • Air Pollution