An analysis of alternative cropping decision rules

The research reported here measures the effects on the probability distribution of the present value of after-tax income of several different cropping decision systems in Alberta. Dynamic flex-cropping decision rules generate higher levels of returns and less downside risk than all other alternatives considered here. Dynamic decision models which ignore taxes and the stochastic dynamic nature of prices produce suboptimal results relative to models which consider these factors and relative to a fixed rotation decision rule. This suggests that careful attention must be paid to the factors included in these models if they are to generate rules which will improve the risk-return trade-off for farm managers. © 1994.

Duke Scholars

Author Curtis R. Taylor Economics