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Modelling the effects of crime type and evidence on judgments about guilt.

Publication ,  Journal Article
Pearson, JM; Law, JR; Skene, JAG; Beskind, DH; Vidmar, N; Ball, DA; Malekpour, A; Carter, RM; Skene, JHP
Published in: Nat Hum Behav
November 2018

Concerns over wrongful convictions have spurred an increased focus on understanding criminal justice decision-making. This study describes an experimental approach that complements conventional mock-juror experiments and case studies by providing a rapid, high-throughput screen for identifying preconceptions and biases that can influence how jurors and lawyers evaluate evidence in criminal cases. The approach combines an experimental decision task derived from marketing research with statistical modeling to explore how subjects evaluate the strength of the case against a defendant. The results show that, in the absence of explicit information about potential error rates or objective reliability, subjects tend to overweight widely used types of forensic evidence, but give much less weight than expected to a defendant's criminal history. Notably, for mock jurors, the type of crime also biases their confidence in guilt independent of the evidence. This bias is positively correlated with the seriousness of the crime. For practicing prosecutors and other lawyers, the crime-type bias is much smaller, yet still correlates with the seriousness of the crime.

Duke Scholars

Published In

Nat Hum Behav

EISSN

2397-3374

Publication Date

November 2018

Volume

2

Issue

11

Start / End Page

856 / 866

Location

England

Related Subject Headings

  • Models, Psychological
  • Judgment
  • Humans
  • Guilt
  • Forensic Psychology
  • Crime
  • 52 Psychology
  • 42 Health sciences
  • 32 Biomedical and clinical sciences
 

Citation

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Pearson, J. M., Law, J. R., Skene, J. A. G., Beskind, D. H., Vidmar, N., Ball, D. A., … Skene, J. H. P. (2018). Modelling the effects of crime type and evidence on judgments about guilt. Nat Hum Behav, 2(11), 856–866.
Pearson, John M., Jonathan R. Law, Jesse A. G. Skene, Donald H. Beskind, Neil Vidmar, David A. Ball, Artemis Malekpour, R McKell Carter, and JH Pate Skene. “Modelling the effects of crime type and evidence on judgments about guilt.Nat Hum Behav 2, no. 11 (November 2018): 856–66.
Pearson JM, Law JR, Skene JAG, Beskind DH, Vidmar N, Ball DA, et al. Modelling the effects of crime type and evidence on judgments about guilt. Nat Hum Behav. 2018 Nov;2(11):856–66.
Pearson, John M., et al. “Modelling the effects of crime type and evidence on judgments about guilt.Nat Hum Behav, vol. 2, no. 11, Nov. 2018, pp. 856–66.
Pearson JM, Law JR, Skene JAG, Beskind DH, Vidmar N, Ball DA, Malekpour A, Carter RM, Skene JHP. Modelling the effects of crime type and evidence on judgments about guilt. Nat Hum Behav. 2018 Nov;2(11):856–866.

Published In

Nat Hum Behav

EISSN

2397-3374

Publication Date

November 2018

Volume

2

Issue

11

Start / End Page

856 / 866

Location

England

Related Subject Headings

  • Models, Psychological
  • Judgment
  • Humans
  • Guilt
  • Forensic Psychology
  • Crime
  • 52 Psychology
  • 42 Health sciences
  • 32 Biomedical and clinical sciences