Correlated Rare Failure Analysis via Asymptotic Probability Evaluation

In this article, a novel asymptotic probability evaluation (APE) method is proposed to estimate the probability of correlated rare failure events for complex integrated systems containing a large number of replicated cells. The key idea is to approximate the failure rate of the entire system by solving a set of nonlinear equations derived from a general analytical model. An error refinement method based on look-up table is further developed to improve numerical stability and, hence, reduce estimation error. Furthermore, a statistical algorithm based on resampling is developed to accurately estimate the confidence interval of APE. Our numerical experiments demonstrate that compared to the state-of-the-art method, APE can reduce the estimation error by up to 30\times without increasing the computational cost.

Duke Scholars

Author Xin Li Pierre R. Lamond Department of Electrical and Computer Engin ...