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The promise and peril of healthcare forecasting.

Publication ,  Journal Article
Wharam, JF; Weiner, JP
Published in: Am J Manag Care
March 1, 2012

Health plans and physician groups increasingly use sophisticated tools to predict individual patient outcomes. Such analytics will accelerate as US medicine enters the digital age. Promising applications of forecasting include better targeting of disease management as well as innovative patient care approaches such as personalized health insurance and clinical decision support systems. In addition, stakeholders will use predictions to advance their organizational agendas, and unintended consequences could arise. Forecasting-based interventions might have uncertain effectiveness, focus on cost savings rather than long-term health, or specifically exclude disadvantaged populations. Policy makers, health plans, and method developers should adopt strategies that address these concerns in order to maximize the benefit of healthcare forecasting on the long-term health of patients.

Duke Scholars

Published In

Am J Manag Care

EISSN

1936-2692

Publication Date

March 1, 2012

Volume

18

Issue

3

Start / End Page

e82 / e85

Location

United States

Related Subject Headings

  • Risk Assessment
  • Organizational Policy
  • Humans
  • Health Status Disparities
  • Health Policy & Services
  • Health Planning
  • Forecasting
  • Diffusion of Innovation
  • Decision Support Systems, Clinical
  • Decision Making
 

Citation

APA
Chicago
ICMJE
MLA
NLM
Wharam, J. F., & Weiner, J. P. (2012). The promise and peril of healthcare forecasting. Am J Manag Care, 18(3), e82–e85.
Wharam, J Frank, and Jonathan P. Weiner. “The promise and peril of healthcare forecasting.Am J Manag Care 18, no. 3 (March 1, 2012): e82–85.
Wharam JF, Weiner JP. The promise and peril of healthcare forecasting. Am J Manag Care. 2012 Mar 1;18(3):e82–5.
Wharam, J. Frank, and Jonathan P. Weiner. “The promise and peril of healthcare forecasting.Am J Manag Care, vol. 18, no. 3, Mar. 2012, pp. e82–85.
Wharam JF, Weiner JP. The promise and peril of healthcare forecasting. Am J Manag Care. 2012 Mar 1;18(3):e82–e85.

Published In

Am J Manag Care

EISSN

1936-2692

Publication Date

March 1, 2012

Volume

18

Issue

3

Start / End Page

e82 / e85

Location

United States

Related Subject Headings

  • Risk Assessment
  • Organizational Policy
  • Humans
  • Health Status Disparities
  • Health Policy & Services
  • Health Planning
  • Forecasting
  • Diffusion of Innovation
  • Decision Support Systems, Clinical
  • Decision Making