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Development of a fertility risk calculator to predict individualized chance of ovarian failure after chemotherapy.

Publication ,  Journal Article
Chung, EH; Acharya, CR; Harris, BS; Acharya, KS
Published in: J Assist Reprod Genet
November 2021

PURPOSE: To develop an innovative machine learning (ML) model that predicts personalized risk of primary ovarian insufficiency (POI) after chemotherapy for reproductive-aged women. Currently, individualized prediction of a patient's risk of POI is challenging. METHODS: Authors of published studies examining POI after gonadotoxic therapy were contacted, and six authors shared their de-identified data (N = 435). A composite outcome for POI was determined for each patient and validated by 3 authors. The primary dataset was partitioned into training and test sets; random forest binary classifiers were trained, and mean prediction scores were computed. Institutional data collected from a cross-sectional survey of cancer survivors (N = 117) was used as another independent validation set. RESULTS: Our model predicted individualized risk of POI with an accuracy of 88% (area under the ROC 0.87, 95% CI: 0.77-0.96; p < 0.001). Mean prediction scores for patients who developed POI and who did not were 0.60 and 0.38 (t-test p < 0.001), respectively. Highly weighted variables included age, chemotherapy dose, prior treatment, smoking, and baseline diminished ovarian reserve. CONCLUSION: We developed an ML-based model to estimate personalized risk of POI after chemotherapy. Our web-based calculator will be a user-friendly decision aid for individualizing risk prediction in oncofertility consultations.

Duke Scholars

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Published In

J Assist Reprod Genet

DOI

EISSN

1573-7330

Publication Date

November 2021

Volume

38

Issue

11

Start / End Page

3047 / 3055

Location

Netherlands

Related Subject Headings

  • United States
  • Surveys and Questionnaires
  • Risk Assessment
  • Primary Ovarian Insufficiency
  • Precision Medicine
  • Ovarian Diseases
  • Obstetrics & Reproductive Medicine
  • Neoplasms
  • Models, Statistical
  • Infertility, Female
 

Citation

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Chung, E. H., Acharya, C. R., Harris, B. S., & Acharya, K. S. (2021). Development of a fertility risk calculator to predict individualized chance of ovarian failure after chemotherapy. J Assist Reprod Genet, 38(11), 3047–3055. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10815-021-02311-0
Chung, Esther H., Chaitanya R. Acharya, Benjamin S. Harris, and Kelly S. Acharya. “Development of a fertility risk calculator to predict individualized chance of ovarian failure after chemotherapy.J Assist Reprod Genet 38, no. 11 (November 2021): 3047–55. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10815-021-02311-0.
Chung EH, Acharya CR, Harris BS, Acharya KS. Development of a fertility risk calculator to predict individualized chance of ovarian failure after chemotherapy. J Assist Reprod Genet. 2021 Nov;38(11):3047–55.
Chung, Esther H., et al. “Development of a fertility risk calculator to predict individualized chance of ovarian failure after chemotherapy.J Assist Reprod Genet, vol. 38, no. 11, Nov. 2021, pp. 3047–55. Pubmed, doi:10.1007/s10815-021-02311-0.
Chung EH, Acharya CR, Harris BS, Acharya KS. Development of a fertility risk calculator to predict individualized chance of ovarian failure after chemotherapy. J Assist Reprod Genet. 2021 Nov;38(11):3047–3055.
Journal cover image

Published In

J Assist Reprod Genet

DOI

EISSN

1573-7330

Publication Date

November 2021

Volume

38

Issue

11

Start / End Page

3047 / 3055

Location

Netherlands

Related Subject Headings

  • United States
  • Surveys and Questionnaires
  • Risk Assessment
  • Primary Ovarian Insufficiency
  • Precision Medicine
  • Ovarian Diseases
  • Obstetrics & Reproductive Medicine
  • Neoplasms
  • Models, Statistical
  • Infertility, Female