Incidence of Kidney Failure after Primary Organ Transplant.

KEY POINTS: Incidence of ESKD in the first year after primary organ transplant ranges from 2.4% to 3.6% and from 1.4% to 1.8% in the second year post-transplant. National data sources do not currently collect sufficiently reliable follow-up data to identify pretransplant predictors of ESKD. BACKGROUND: Careful selection of multiorgan transplant candidates is required to avoid unintended consequences to patients waiting for kidney transplant alone. The need for a safety net among heart and lung transplant recipients is unknown. The objective of this study was to quantify the incidence of kidney failure after liver, heart, or lung transplantation and identify pretransplant predictors of post-transplant kidney failure. METHODS: A retrospective cross-sectional study of adults who received liver, heart, or lung transplant between January 1, 2008, and December 31, 2018, was conducted using data from the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipient and the United States Renal Data System. Post-transplant renal failure was defined as (1) new start of dialysis, (2) eGFR of <25 ml/min, (3) a new waitlisting for a kidney transplant, or (4) receipt of a kidney transplant. RESULTS: The final descriptive cohort included 53,620 liver transplant recipients, 22,042 heart transplant recipients, and 10,688 lung transplant recipients. In the first year post-transplant, the probability of ESKD was comparable among heart transplant recipients (0.036; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.033 to 0.038) and liver transplant recipients (0.033; 95% CI, 0.031 to 0.035) but was markedly lower in lung transplant recipients (0.024; 95% CI, 0.021 to 0.027). In the second year post-transplant, the probability of ESKD was comparable among liver (0.016; 95% CI, 0.015 to 0.017), lung (0.018; 95% CI, 0.015 to 0.021), and heart transplant recipients (0.014; 95% CI, 0.013 to 0.016). CONCLUSIONS: Candidates for thoracic transplant would likely benefit from a safety net policy similar to the one enacted in 2017 for liver transplant so as to maintain judicious patient selection for simultaneous multiorgan transplant. National data sources do not currently collect sufficiently reliable follow-up data to identify pretransplant predictors of ESKD, pointing to a need for transplant centers to consistently report kidney impairment data to national databases.

Duke Scholars

Author Lisa M McElroy Surgery, Abdominal Transplant Surgery

Author Tyler Schappe  

Author Scott L Sanoff Medicine, Nephrology

Author Jane Frances Pendergast Biostatistics & Bioinformatics, Division of Biostatistics