Abstract 16832: Biomarker Enhanced Risk Prediction of Incident Heart Failure in Low-Risk Patients: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study

Primary prevention strategies to reduce heart failure (HF) burden are urgently warranted. The Pooled Cohort equations to Prevent HF (PCP-HF) risk score is a validated risk tool that integrates readily available parameters obtained in primary care setting to estimate the 10-year risk for incident HF. Although PCP-HF performs well for high-risk individuals, the model’s predictive utility for low-risk individuals may potentially be enhanced by integration of biomarkers. In this study, the PCP-HF risk score was derived from data collected at visit 5 (2011-2013) of the ARIC cohort study and its 5-year predictive accuracy was investigated using surveillance data up to 2019. Participants with <10% PCP-HF risk probability of incident HF were classified as low-risk. Incremental improvement in predicting incident HF by including laboratory and imaging-based biomarkers in the low-risk population was analyzed by logistic regression, by calculating the area under the curve (AUC) from receiver operating characteristics. Of 4980 study participants with 5 years of follow up, 47% had a low PCP-HF risk score (mean age 73 years, 71% women, 32% Black). Of these, 3% developed HF within 5 years. Compared to those with a high PCP-HF risk score, individuals with low PCP-HF risk score were younger, more often female and Black; had lower left ventricular (LV) mass index and left atrial volume index, higher magnitude of LV global longitudinal strain, and lower levels of NT-proBNP and hs-TnT. On further analysis, the model incorporating laboratory and imaging-based biomarkers exhibited greater predictive accuracy for incident HF compared to the original PCP-HF risk score in this low-risk population (AUC: 0.85 vs 0.62). The integration of laboratory and imaging-based biomarkers with the PCP-HF risk score enhances the predictive accuracy of risk modeling for incident HF, especially in individuals identified as low-risk by the 10-year risk prediction tool.

Duke Scholars

Author Robert John Mentz Medicine, Cardiology