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Impact of climate and land use/land cover changes on malaria incidence in the Ecuadorian Amazon

Publication ,  Journal Article
Araujo Navas, AL; Janko, MM; Benítez, FL; Narvaez, M; Vasco, LE; Kansara, P; Zaitchik, B; Pan, WK; Mena, CF
Published in: PLOS Climate
April 19, 2024

Malaria transmission is influenced by climate and land use/land cover change (LULC). This study examines the impact of climate and LULC on malaria risk in the Ecuadorian Amazon. Weekly malaria surveillance data between 2008 and 2019 from Ecuador’s Ministry of Public Health were combined with hydrometeorological and LULC data. Cross-correlation analyses identified time lags. Bayesian spatiotemporal models estimated annual LULC rates of change (ARC) by census area and assessed the effects on and incidence. ARC for the five land cover classes (forest, agriculture, urban, shrub vegetation, water) ranged from -1 to 4% with agriculture increasing across areas. Forest and shrub vegetation ARC were significantly associated with both and . Temperature and terrestrial water content showed consistent negative relationships with both species. Precipitation had varying effects on (null) and (increase) incidence. Shrubs and forest expansion, increased temperature, and terrestrial water content reduced malaria incidence, while increased precipitation had varying effects. Relationships between malaria, LULC, and climate are complex, influencing risk profiles. These findings aid decision-making and guide further research in the region.

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Published In

PLOS Climate

DOI

EISSN

2767-3200

Publication Date

April 19, 2024

Volume

3

Issue

4

Start / End Page

e0000315 / e0000315

Publisher

Public Library of Science (PLoS)
 

Citation

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Araujo Navas, A. L., Janko, M. M., Benítez, F. L., Narvaez, M., Vasco, L. E., Kansara, P., … Mena, C. F. (2024). Impact of climate and land use/land cover changes on malaria incidence in the Ecuadorian Amazon. PLOS Climate, 3(4), e0000315–e0000315. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000315
Araujo Navas, Andrea L., Mark M. Janko, Fátima L. Benítez, Manuel Narvaez, Luis E. Vasco, Prakrut Kansara, Benjamin Zaitchik, William K. Pan, and Carlos F. Mena. “Impact of climate and land use/land cover changes on malaria incidence in the Ecuadorian Amazon.” Edited by Ka Chun Chong. PLOS Climate 3, no. 4 (April 19, 2024): e0000315–e0000315. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000315.
Araujo Navas AL, Janko MM, Benítez FL, Narvaez M, Vasco LE, Kansara P, et al. Impact of climate and land use/land cover changes on malaria incidence in the Ecuadorian Amazon. Chong KC, editor. PLOS Climate. 2024 Apr 19;3(4):e0000315–e0000315.
Araujo Navas, Andrea L., et al. “Impact of climate and land use/land cover changes on malaria incidence in the Ecuadorian Amazon.” PLOS Climate, edited by Ka Chun Chong, vol. 3, no. 4, Public Library of Science (PLoS), Apr. 2024, pp. e0000315–e0000315. Crossref, doi:10.1371/journal.pclm.0000315.
Araujo Navas AL, Janko MM, Benítez FL, Narvaez M, Vasco LE, Kansara P, Zaitchik B, Pan WK, Mena CF. Impact of climate and land use/land cover changes on malaria incidence in the Ecuadorian Amazon. Chong KC, editor. PLOS Climate. Public Library of Science (PLoS); 2024 Apr 19;3(4):e0000315–e0000315.

Published In

PLOS Climate

DOI

EISSN

2767-3200

Publication Date

April 19, 2024

Volume

3

Issue

4

Start / End Page

e0000315 / e0000315

Publisher

Public Library of Science (PLoS)