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Impact of climate and land use/land cover changes on malaria incidence in the Ecuadorian Amazon.

Publication ,  Journal Article
Navas, ALA; Janko, MM; Benítez, FL; Narvaez, M; Vasco, LE; Kansara, P; Zaitchik, B; Pan, WK; Mena, CF
Published in: PLOS climate
January 2024

Malaria transmission is influenced by climate and land use/land cover change (LULC). This study examines the impact of climate and LULC on malaria risk in the Ecuadorian Amazon. Weekly malaria surveillance data between 2008 and 2019 from Ecuador's Ministry of Public Health were combined with hydrometeorological and LULC data. Cross-correlation analyses identified time lags. Bayesian spatiotemporal models estimated annual LULC rates of change (ARC) by census area and assessed the effects on Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum incidence. ARC for the five land cover classes (forest, agriculture, urban, shrub vegetation, water) ranged from -1 to 4% with agriculture increasing across areas. Forest and shrub vegetation ARC were significantly associated with both Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum. Temperature and terrestrial water content showed consistent negative relationships with both species. Precipitation had varying effects on Plasmodium vivax (null) and Plasmodium falciparum (increase) incidence. Shrubs and forest expansion, increased temperature, and terrestrial water content reduced malaria incidence, while increased precipitation had varying effects. Relationships between malaria, LULC, and climate are complex, influencing risk profiles. These findings aid decision-making and guide further research in the region.

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Published In

PLOS climate

DOI

EISSN

2767-3200

ISSN

2767-3200

Publication Date

January 2024

Volume

3

Issue

4

Start / End Page

e0000315
 

Citation

APA
Chicago
ICMJE
MLA
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Navas, A. L. A., Janko, M. M., Benítez, F. L., Narvaez, M., Vasco, L. E., Kansara, P., … Mena, C. F. (2024). Impact of climate and land use/land cover changes on malaria incidence in the Ecuadorian Amazon. PLOS Climate, 3(4), e0000315. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000315
Navas, Andrea L Araujo, Mark M. Janko, Fátima L. Benítez, Manuel Narvaez, Luis E. Vasco, Prakrut Kansara, Benjamin Zaitchik, William K. Pan, and Carlos F. Mena. “Impact of climate and land use/land cover changes on malaria incidence in the Ecuadorian Amazon.PLOS Climate 3, no. 4 (January 2024): e0000315. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000315.
Navas ALA, Janko MM, Benítez FL, Narvaez M, Vasco LE, Kansara P, et al. Impact of climate and land use/land cover changes on malaria incidence in the Ecuadorian Amazon. PLOS climate. 2024 Jan;3(4):e0000315.
Navas, Andrea L. Araujo, et al. “Impact of climate and land use/land cover changes on malaria incidence in the Ecuadorian Amazon.PLOS Climate, vol. 3, no. 4, Jan. 2024, p. e0000315. Epmc, doi:10.1371/journal.pclm.0000315.
Navas ALA, Janko MM, Benítez FL, Narvaez M, Vasco LE, Kansara P, Zaitchik B, Pan WK, Mena CF. Impact of climate and land use/land cover changes on malaria incidence in the Ecuadorian Amazon. PLOS climate. 2024 Jan;3(4):e0000315.

Published In

PLOS climate

DOI

EISSN

2767-3200

ISSN

2767-3200

Publication Date

January 2024

Volume

3

Issue

4

Start / End Page

e0000315