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The role of sea surface salinity in ENSO forecasting in the 21st century

Publication ,  Journal Article
Wang, H; Hu, S; Guan, C; Li, X
Published in: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
December 1, 2024

Significant strides have been made in understanding El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dynamics, yet its long-lead prediction remains challenging, especially for the El Niño events after 2000. Sea surface salinity (SSS) is known to affect ENSO development and intensity by influencing ocean stratification and heat redistribution and therefore, when combined with sea surface temperature (SST) data, can potentially enhance ENSO forecast skill. In this study, we develop a deep learning (DL) model that incorporates a multiscale-pyramid structure and spatiotemporal feature extraction blocks, and the model successfully extends effective ENSO forecast lead time to 24 months for 2000–2021 with reduced effect of the spring predictability barrier (SPB). Interpretable methods are then applied to reveal the time-dependent roles of SST and SSS in ENSO forecast. More specifically, SST is critical for short-medium lead forecasts (<1 year), while SSS is important for medium-long lead forecasts (>6 months). Furthermore, we track global SST and SSS spatiotemporal shifts related to subsequent ENSO development, highlighting the importance of ocean inter-basin and tropics-extratropics interactions. With increasing availability of satellite SSS observations, our findings unveil unprecedented potential for advancing ENSO long-lead forecast skills.

Duke Scholars

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Published In

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science

DOI

EISSN

2397-3722

Publication Date

December 1, 2024

Volume

7

Issue

1

Related Subject Headings

  • 3702 Climate change science
  • 3701 Atmospheric sciences
 

Citation

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Wang, H., Hu, S., Guan, C., & Li, X. (2024). The role of sea surface salinity in ENSO forecasting in the 21st century. Npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 7(1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00763-6
Wang, H., S. Hu, C. Guan, and X. Li. “The role of sea surface salinity in ENSO forecasting in the 21st century.” Npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 7, no. 1 (December 1, 2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00763-6.
Wang H, Hu S, Guan C, Li X. The role of sea surface salinity in ENSO forecasting in the 21st century. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. 2024 Dec 1;7(1).
Wang, H., et al. “The role of sea surface salinity in ENSO forecasting in the 21st century.” Npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, vol. 7, no. 1, Dec. 2024. Scopus, doi:10.1038/s41612-024-00763-6.
Wang H, Hu S, Guan C, Li X. The role of sea surface salinity in ENSO forecasting in the 21st century. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. 2024 Dec 1;7(1).

Published In

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science

DOI

EISSN

2397-3722

Publication Date

December 1, 2024

Volume

7

Issue

1

Related Subject Headings

  • 3702 Climate change science
  • 3701 Atmospheric sciences