Interactive effects of air pollutants and viral exposure on daily influenza hospital visits in Mongolia.

BACKGROUND: Air pollution is a well-documented public health hazard linked to various adverse health outcomes. While studies have shown associations between elevated levels of air pollutants and increased influenza incidence, there is a notable knowledge gap concerning the interactive effects of air pollution and viral exposure on respiratory viral infections. OBJECTIVES: This study sought to examine the interactive effects of air pollution and viral exposure on influenza hospital visits in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia. METHODS: We conducted a time-series analysis linking daily hospital visits for influenza disease (defined as ICD10 diagnosis codes J11) with ambient concentrations of air pollutants (PM1, PM2.5, PM10, NO2, SO2, and O3) over a period of 7 years. Viral exposure for a specific geographical region was estimated based on influenza hospital visits within acute (previous day) and sub-acute (preceding 7 days) exposure windows. Covariates included long-term time trend, temperature, temperature variation, relative humidity, holiday, and raw coal ban policy. An over-dispersed generalized linear model (GLM) with a quasi-Poisson distribution was used to assess associations, exploring interactions and lag effects up to 3 days. Season-specific models and stratified analyses by sex and age were performed, with sensitivity analyses using multi-pollutant models. RESULTS: A total of 16,364 influenza hospital visits were recorded, with significantly higher rates of visits during the winter season. All six pollutants amplified the effects of viral exposure on hospital visits in cold months, while only PM1, PM2.5, and O3 showed synergistic effects in warm months. Stronger synergistic effects were observed among children under 5 years old, particularly for O3. CONCLUSIONS: Air pollution significantly amplified the adverse effects of viral exposure on influenza-hospital visits, particularly among young children and during high viral exposure periods. These findings underscore the need for employing protective measures against both air pollution and viral infections.

Duke Scholars

Author Junfeng Zhang Environmental Sciences and Policy

Author Yan Lin Environmental Natural Science

Author Shiyu Zhang  

Author Robert Matthew Tighe Medicine, Pulmonary, Allergy, and Critical Care Medicine