Intersecting Identities and Ideologies: Sociodemographic Predictors of 2024 Voting Among Mexican and Cuban Americans

Despite Latino Americans’ consistent support for the Democratic Party over the last five decades, the number of Latino Americans who voted for Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election grew by 10% compared to the 2020 election. What ideological and sociodemographic factors apart from ethnic identity may have influenced their voting behavior in the 2024 Presidential Election? Although previous work has demonstrated a person's Latino identity strength can influence their political behavior, Latino Americans hold other ideologies and sociodemographic factors that may influence their voting. Here, 186 Mexican Americans (the Latino group that voted the most for Harris) and 176 Cuban Americans (the Latino group that voted the most for Trump) participants completed measures of ethnic identity, acculturation, Latino-specific gender norms, conservatism, traditionalism, income, and religiosity among others. Across all participants, having higher levels of traditionalism was the most consistent predictor of voting for Trump over Harris. Voting for Trump over Harris was associated with higher levels of machismo (i.e., gender norms about men common in Latin American societies) only in Mexican Americans, whereas voting for Trump over Harris was associated with having a higher income only in Cuban Americans. These results suggest there are multiple, distinct ideologies and sociodemographic factors in Latino voters that influence their political preferences, rationales, and voting behavior.

Duke Scholars

Author Sarah Elizabeth Gaither Psychology & Neuroscience