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A contemporary prognostic nomogram for men with hormone-refractory metastatic prostate cancer: a TAX327 study analysis.

Publication ,  Journal Article
Armstrong, AJ; Garrett-Mayer, ES; Yang, Y-CO; de Wit, R; Tannock, IF; Eisenberger, M
Published in: Clin Cancer Res
November 1, 2007

PURPOSE: To develop a prognostic model and nomogram using baseline clinical variables to predict death among men with metastatic hormone-refractory prostate cancer (HRPC). EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: TAX327 was a clinical trial that randomized 1,006 men with metastatic HRPC to receive every three week or weekly docetaxel or mitoxantrone, each with prednisone. We developed a multivariate Cox model and nomogram to predict survival at 1, 2, and 5 years. RESULTS: Ten independent prognostic factors other than treatment group were identified in multivariate analysis: (a) presence of liver metastases [hazard ratio (HR), 1.66; P = 0.019], (b) number of metastatic sites (HR, 1.63 if > or =2 sites; P = 0.001), (c) clinically significant pain (HR, 1.48; P < 0.0001), (d) Karnofsky performance status (HR, 1.39 if < or =70; P = 0.016), (e) type of progression (HR, 1.37 for measurable disease progression and 1.29 for bone scan progression; P = 0.005 and 0.01, respectively), (f) pretreatment prostate-specific antigen (PSA) doubling time (HR, 1.19 if <55 days; P = 0.066), (g) PSA (HR, 1.17 per log rise; P < 0.0001), (h) tumor grade (HR, 1.18 for high grade; P = 0.069), (i) alkaline phosphatase (HR, 1.27 per log rise; P < 0.0001), and (j) hemoglobin (HR, 1.11 per unit decline; P = 0.004). A nomogram was developed based on this multivariate model and validated internally using bootstrap methods, with a concordance index of 0.69. CONCLUSIONS: This multivariate model identified several new independent prognostic factors in men with metastatic HRPC, including PSA doubling time, and led to the successful development of a clinically applicable nomogram. External prospective validation may support the wider use of this prognostic baseline model for men with HRPC treated with chemotherapy.

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Published In

Clin Cancer Res

DOI

ISSN

1078-0432

Publication Date

November 1, 2007

Volume

13

Issue

21

Start / End Page

6396 / 6403

Location

United States

Related Subject Headings

  • Treatment Outcome
  • Taxoids
  • Survival Analysis
  • Regression Analysis
  • Prostatic Neoplasms
  • Prostate-Specific Antigen
  • Proportional Hazards Models
  • Prognosis
  • Prednisone
  • Oncology & Carcinogenesis
 

Citation

APA
Chicago
ICMJE
MLA
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Armstrong, A. J., Garrett-Mayer, E. S., Yang, Y.-C., de Wit, R., Tannock, I. F., & Eisenberger, M. (2007). A contemporary prognostic nomogram for men with hormone-refractory metastatic prostate cancer: a TAX327 study analysis. Clin Cancer Res, 13(21), 6396–6403. https://doi.org/10.1158/1078-0432.CCR-07-1036
Armstrong, Andrew J., Elizabeth S. Garrett-Mayer, Yi-Chun Ou Yang, Ronald de Wit, Ian F. Tannock, and Mario Eisenberger. “A contemporary prognostic nomogram for men with hormone-refractory metastatic prostate cancer: a TAX327 study analysis.Clin Cancer Res 13, no. 21 (November 1, 2007): 6396–6403. https://doi.org/10.1158/1078-0432.CCR-07-1036.
Armstrong AJ, Garrett-Mayer ES, Yang Y-CO, de Wit R, Tannock IF, Eisenberger M. A contemporary prognostic nomogram for men with hormone-refractory metastatic prostate cancer: a TAX327 study analysis. Clin Cancer Res. 2007 Nov 1;13(21):6396–403.
Armstrong, Andrew J., et al. “A contemporary prognostic nomogram for men with hormone-refractory metastatic prostate cancer: a TAX327 study analysis.Clin Cancer Res, vol. 13, no. 21, Nov. 2007, pp. 6396–403. Pubmed, doi:10.1158/1078-0432.CCR-07-1036.
Armstrong AJ, Garrett-Mayer ES, Yang Y-CO, de Wit R, Tannock IF, Eisenberger M. A contemporary prognostic nomogram for men with hormone-refractory metastatic prostate cancer: a TAX327 study analysis. Clin Cancer Res. 2007 Nov 1;13(21):6396–6403.

Published In

Clin Cancer Res

DOI

ISSN

1078-0432

Publication Date

November 1, 2007

Volume

13

Issue

21

Start / End Page

6396 / 6403

Location

United States

Related Subject Headings

  • Treatment Outcome
  • Taxoids
  • Survival Analysis
  • Regression Analysis
  • Prostatic Neoplasms
  • Prostate-Specific Antigen
  • Proportional Hazards Models
  • Prognosis
  • Prednisone
  • Oncology & Carcinogenesis