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A predictive approach to nutrient criteria.

Publication ,  Journal Article
Reckhow, KH; Arhonditsis, GB; Kenney, MA; Hauser, L; Tribo, J; Wu, C; Elcock, KJ; Steinberg, LJ; Stow, CA; McBride, SJ
Published in: Environmental science & technology
May 2005

Violation of a water quality standard triggers the need for a total maximum daily load (TMDL); this should result in actions that improve water quality, but sometimes at significant cost. If the standard is well-conceived, a designated-use statement characterizes societal values, and a criterion provides a measurable surrogate for designated use. This latter provision means that scientists measure the criterion and view violations of the criterion as equivalent to noncompliance with the designated use. However, if a criterion is not a good indicator of designated use, it is apt to result in misallocation of the limited resources for water quality improvement through the TMDL process. This concern provides the basis for our assessment of the national nutrient criteria strategy recently proposed by the U.S. EPA. We acquired data sets for four case studies (Lake Washington, Neuse River Estuary, San Francisco Bay, and Lake Mendota) and then used expert elicitation to quantify designated-use attainment for each case. Applying structural equation modeling, we identified good water quality criteria as the best predictors of the designated use elicited response variable. Further, we used the model to relate the level (concentration) of each criterion to the probability of compliance with the designated use; this provides decision-makers with an estimate of risk associated with the criterion level, facilitating the selection of appropriate water quality criteria.

Duke Scholars

Published In

Environmental science & technology

DOI

EISSN

1520-5851

ISSN

0013-936X

Publication Date

May 2005

Volume

39

Issue

9

Start / End Page

2913 / 2919

Related Subject Headings

  • Water Pollution
  • United States Environmental Protection Agency
  • United States
  • Rivers
  • Quality Control
  • Phosphorus
  • Nitrogen
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Forecasting
  • Environmental Sciences
 

Citation

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Reckhow, K. H., Arhonditsis, G. B., Kenney, M. A., Hauser, L., Tribo, J., Wu, C., … McBride, S. J. (2005). A predictive approach to nutrient criteria. Environmental Science & Technology, 39(9), 2913–2919. https://doi.org/10.1021/es048584i
Reckhow, K. H., G. B. Arhonditsis, M. A. Kenney, L. Hauser, J. Tribo, C. Wu, K. J. Elcock, L. J. Steinberg, C. A. Stow, and S. J. McBride. “A predictive approach to nutrient criteria.Environmental Science & Technology 39, no. 9 (May 2005): 2913–19. https://doi.org/10.1021/es048584i.
Reckhow KH, Arhonditsis GB, Kenney MA, Hauser L, Tribo J, Wu C, et al. A predictive approach to nutrient criteria. Environmental science & technology. 2005 May;39(9):2913–9.
Reckhow, K. H., et al. “A predictive approach to nutrient criteria.Environmental Science & Technology, vol. 39, no. 9, May 2005, pp. 2913–19. Epmc, doi:10.1021/es048584i.
Reckhow KH, Arhonditsis GB, Kenney MA, Hauser L, Tribo J, Wu C, Elcock KJ, Steinberg LJ, Stow CA, McBride SJ. A predictive approach to nutrient criteria. Environmental science & technology. 2005 May;39(9):2913–2919.
Journal cover image

Published In

Environmental science & technology

DOI

EISSN

1520-5851

ISSN

0013-936X

Publication Date

May 2005

Volume

39

Issue

9

Start / End Page

2913 / 2919

Related Subject Headings

  • Water Pollution
  • United States Environmental Protection Agency
  • United States
  • Rivers
  • Quality Control
  • Phosphorus
  • Nitrogen
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Forecasting
  • Environmental Sciences