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Below replacement fertility preferences in Shanghai.

Publication ,  Journal Article
Merli, MG; Morgan, SP
Published in: Population
January 2011

China has joined the group of low-fertility countries; it has a TFR somewhere in the range of 1.4 to 1.6. Much speculation about China's future fertility depends on whether individual's fertility intentions and preferences are much higher than the state's fertility goals. If so, then a relaxation of family planning restrictions could lead to a substantial fertility increase. We directly ask a probability sample of Shanghai registered residents and migrants whether a policy relaxation would lead them to have additional children. Our results show that small families (one or two children) are intended in this urban setting. If family planning policy were relaxed, a relatively small fraction (fewer than 14%) reports that they would revise their intentions upward. Even this modest increase (as much as 10%) is suspect because factors that can deflate fertility relative to intentions are likely more powerful than the inflationary ones (in Shanghai). These empirical findings help ground speculations on the future of fertility in the hypothetical absence of policy constraints.

Duke Scholars

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Published In

Population

DOI

EISSN

1958-9190

ISSN

1634-2941

Publication Date

January 2011

Volume

66

Issue

3-4

Start / End Page

519 / 542

Related Subject Headings

  • Demography
  • 4403 Demography
  • 1603 Demography
 

Citation

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Chicago
ICMJE
MLA
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Merli, M. G., & Morgan, S. P. (2011). Below replacement fertility preferences in Shanghai. Population, 66(3–4), 519–542. https://doi.org/10.3917/pope.1103.0519
Merli, M Giovanna, and S Philip Morgan. “Below replacement fertility preferences in Shanghai.Population 66, no. 3–4 (January 2011): 519–42. https://doi.org/10.3917/pope.1103.0519.
Merli MG, Morgan SP. Below replacement fertility preferences in Shanghai. Population. 2011 Jan;66(3–4):519–42.
Merli, M. Giovanna, and S. Philip Morgan. “Below replacement fertility preferences in Shanghai.Population, vol. 66, no. 3–4, Jan. 2011, pp. 519–42. Epmc, doi:10.3917/pope.1103.0519.
Merli MG, Morgan SP. Below replacement fertility preferences in Shanghai. Population. 2011 Jan;66(3–4):519–542.

Published In

Population

DOI

EISSN

1958-9190

ISSN

1634-2941

Publication Date

January 2011

Volume

66

Issue

3-4

Start / End Page

519 / 542

Related Subject Headings

  • Demography
  • 4403 Demography
  • 1603 Demography