Econometric GNP forecasts: Incremental information relative to naive extrapolation

Recent studies of macroeconomic forecasts have focused primarily on the relative performance of individual forecasts and combinations thereof. We suggest that these forecasts be evaluated in terms of the incremental information that they provide relative to a simple extrapolation forecast. Using a Bayesian approach, we measure the incremental information contained in econometric forecasts of U.S. GNP relative to a random-walk-with-drift time series forecast. The results indicate that (1) substantial incremental gains can be obtained from econometric GNP forecasts for the current quarter, but that these gains decrease rapidly as the forecast horizon increases, and (2) after one econometric forecast has been consulted, subsequent such forecasts add little information. © 1989.

Duke Scholars

Author Robert T. Clemen Fuqua School of Business